THE LEFT TURN

NASCAR AAA Texas 500 preview

NASCAR AAA Texas 500 preview
This could be the week for Chase Elliot. Jerry Markland/Getty Images

The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads for the Lone Star State for the AAA Texas 500. This is the second race in NASCAR’s semi-final round of eight. This track has gone through many changes over the past few years including a new surface and higher banking around the corners. The new configuration was difficult to maneuver the last time we came here as there were three multi-car accidents including a seven car pile-up involving the likes of Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson. One of the catalysts of these wrecks were tire failures. This new configuration has been tough on tires and this week we should expect a similar issue considering the chances of cold weather.

Last week, Joey Logano bullied his way into the championship race and took the checkered flag at Martinsville for his second victory of 2018. On the final lap, Martin Truex Jr made what appeared to be the winning pass on Logano. In the final corner, Logano gave  Truex  the “Chrome Horn,” propelling him to victory.

Over the course of this week Logano’s decision to move Truex was met by harsh criticism by both fans and drivers alike. Over the course of his 10-year career, (wow do I feel old saying that) Logano has built up the reputation of being a driver who does whatever it takes to get to victory lane. In 2012, he ran over Mark Martin to claim his second victory at Pocono and most notably was involved in a fued with veteran Matt Kenseth in 2015 that arguably cost him the championship. It is clear that Joey is not the most popular driver in the garage but with everything he has done, there have been many others all throughout NASCAR’s history who have done exactly what he has done including the sport's most famous icon Dale Earnhardt.

So what is it that causes this disdain? I am led to believe it was his upbringing. Growing up, Logano did not come from the humble beginnings that most NASCAR fans can relate to, with his dad owning a sanitation business, Logano never had to worry about not being able to make it to the racetrack. This kind of “Rich kid” image does not set well folks and they believe that someone who “works harder” deserves to be where he is. In 2013 after an altercation at Auto Club raceway, racing legend Tony Stewart said “He’s nothing but a little rich kid who’s never worked for anything.” While for some, it is easy to make this assumption because they wanted to have the resources that Logano had growing up but I personally believe that it is ignorant to claim Logano has not “worked to get to where he is.” This is a man who has dedicated his whole LIFE to racing. While normal seven year olds where playing video games, Logano was at a Dirt Track in a Quarter Midget sprint car every weekend. Clearly, Logano is talented enough to be where he is considering this is the third time he will be racing for a championship at Homestead.

The one thing fans can take away from Martinsville was how entertaining the race was. All throughout the race, there were tons of battles for position and lots of banging and clanging like we usually see when we come to a track such as Martinsville. This race has sparked a debate amongst the NASCAR community about the possibility of adding more short tracks to the schedule. When asked about this, driver Denny Hamlin stated “NASCAR could be this exciting every week if we raced at  more short tracks.” In a sense, I can agree with Denny, going to shorter tracks like Martinsville every week would bring the sport back to a time when it was popular but in my opinion, over saturating the schedule with short tracks will not make things better. Now while I do believe that the sport would greatly benefit from a schedule overhaul, I think that there should be more of a variety of types of tracks, maybe there can be more road courses such as Road America or Mid-Ohio that can be added when NASCAR finally tweaks the  schedule. Only time will tell what is next for the sport but if there is one positive of this week, everything appears to be on the right path for the future.

The driver that I have going to victory lane this Sunday is Chase Elliott. Coming into this round Elliott was in the midst of a hot streak - in  the three races in the round of 12, he won two. Many experts and fans had him pegged as a championship favorite. Coming into Martinsville, he was considered the favorite to win there as well. Throughout the race, he was around the top 10 and was able to capture a respectable seventh place finish, but because of the sheer amount of wins and points the big three of Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick were able to rack up during the season, he is now on the outside looking in and with a spot already filled after Logano went on to win, one would believe that he is in a must win situation to get back into the final four at Homestead and what better place than to do it at one of the tracks he has performed well at. Since the beginning of his career in 2016, Elliott has finished outside of the top 10 once and has a best finish of fourth his rookie season. Mile and a half tracks like Texas have been where he has the most success and I look for this to be no different. Look for Elliott to claim his fourth win of the season and clinch a spot in the championship race.

(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Reference.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).

 

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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