THE LEFT TURN
NASCAR: Bank of America ROVAL 400 preview, predictions
Oct 8, 2021, 1:12 pm
Keep an eye on Chase Elliott this weekend. Photo by Jerry Markland/Getty Images.
NASCAR heads for the high banks of Michigan
It's the final race of the Round of 12 as the championship playoff picture continues to take shape. This race has a tendency to provide plenty of chaos and with the rain that could be on the way, we could be in for a wild weekend. With it being an elimination race, there is a great chance we see a lot of drivers do everything they can to try and advance. Come Sunday, 11 drivers will have to race as their season depends on it, as only 22 points separate second from ninth. This is shaping up to be a race to remember.
Last week Bubba Wallace finally breakthrough for his first career victory after rain halted the race. Overall, while the racing was pretty incredible, it seemed like everyone knew the race was not going to go its scheduled distance. Before the race was stopped there were multiple big wrecks taking out the likes of Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, and Kyle Busch. Even if the circumstances were unfortunate that the race couldn't be completed, this was a huge moment for the sport as Wallace becomes the first black driver since Wendell Scott in 1964 to win at the Talladega Superspeedway.
The battle for the eighth and final transfer spot is as tight as it's been all season. As I alluded to earlier, Kyle Larson who is second in points is only +22 points ahead of the ninth-place cut-off line. The only driver that is safe is Denny Hamlin after his huge win two weeks ago in Las Vegas. Currently, Kevin Harvick, Christopher Bell, William Byron, and Alex Bowman are the four cars out. The driver who is sitting on the bubble is Kyle Busch. After his abysmal 27th place finish at Talladega, he is now only nine points safe. To miss the round of eight would be a huge disappointment for a team that had championship aspirations. This is also a track where he's struggled immensely. In the three races here, Rowdy has yet to finish better than 30th. That won't cut it if he wants to move on to the next round.
It was an expensive day for Hendrick Motorsports as all four cars sustained crash damage. It started when Kyle Larson crashed in the tri-oval early in the race. It wasn't long before his teammates Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott joined him in a massive crash in turn four, then William Byron completed the superfecta after a fiery crash. For Larson, he has accumulated so many stage points that he will probably be okay, but for his teammates, this week is going to be dire. Alex Bowman is in must-win territory as he's 12th in points and 84 points back, William Byron also needs a victory as well to move on, so it's safe to say at least one of the Hendrick four won't make it.
With all that being said, the driver I have winning this week is Chase Elliott. When it comes to road courses, Chase has truly become the king of the road. In his past six starts, he's finished no worse than fourth. Last season he dominated this race as he scored 49 points and led 27 laps en route to his third consecutive victory at the Roval. After a bad week at Talladega, there is nothing better than rebounding with a victory. Look for him to be a threat for a four-peat this Sunday as he starts 8th.
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If you are a believer in the third time is a charm, go ahead and book the Texans for their first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game! Saturday is the Texans’ third crack at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Of course, the Texans had a third time is the charm opportunity at advancing beyond the division round back in 2016 and came nowhere close. Charm will have nothing to do with the outcome at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have administered the Texans’ two most humiliating postseason defeats in franchise history. They came as the bookend postseason appearances of Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach. In 2015, the Texans won the worst division in the AFC (that sounds familiar) but as a division champ got to play host to the Wild Card 11-5 Chiefs. The visitors were three-point favorites. They won by 30. 30-0 to be more precise. Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a touchdown. It would have been in the Texans’ best interest to have forfeited right then and there. In what was not exactly a shocking development, Texans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn’t up to the task, throwing for just 112 yards and four interceptions. On the Chiefs’ side third-year tight end Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 128 yards. Taylor Swift was not in attendance.
The second Texans-Chiefs playoff get together is the most incredible game in Texans’ history. The Texans showed up in Missouri fresh off the greatest comeback win in their history, having come from down 16-0 in the third quarter to best the Buffalo Bills in overtime. In what could safely be characterized as stunning, the Texans put up three first quarter touchdowns for a 21-0 lead. *Massive bonus points if you can name the three Texans who scored those TDs, answer below. A field goal made it 24-0 Texans with 10:54 left in the second quarter. In a collapse tough to pull off, the Texans would trail before halftime. The Chiefs scored four touchdowns in nine minutes and eleven seconds of game time, with that Kelce fellow scoring the last three of them. Some will recall O’Brien calling a fake punt from his own 31-yard line with the Texans up 24-7. Too soon? Justin Reid (now pursuing his third Super Bowl ring in three seasons as a Chief) was stopped short. An even more damning O’Brien moment came later in that game when he actually had to use a timeout to change his mind and go for it with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter, the Texans down 48-31, and facing fourth and four at the K.C. 42. That was a fire-able on the spot offense! Instead it took an 0-4 start to the 2020 season for O’Brien to be ousted. 51-31 Chiefs was the final score, and they went on to win the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the ongoing Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.
Back to the present
Those routs were then, this is now. For a 15-2 team the Chiefs seem vulnerable. Maximum credit to them for having won an NFL record 16 consecutive games decided by eight or fewer points, 11 of them this season including their 27-19 victory over the Texans December 21. Perhaps the two-time defending champions were often bored with the regular season and often did just enough to win. The Texans would have been tied with them late in the third quarter had Ka’imi Fairbairn not botched an extra point. On the other hand, it was the play that got them within 17-16 which resulted in Tank Dell’s catastrophic season-ending knee injury. Who besides Nico Collins will do something in the passing game Saturday? Last Saturday the Texans’ pass rush harassed and flustered Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Mahomes is a different breed. Four weeks ago the Texans sacked Mahomes just once and did not intercept him. That seemingly must change for the Texans to pull off what be a shocker for most people. Saturday’s high temperature forecast for Kansas City is 25 degrees. Not ideal for the Texans but better than if the game had been scheduled for Sunday when the high is supposed to be 16.
Still standing
Four Texans who dressed for the debacle five years ago will suit up against the Chiefs Saturday: Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard who were in their first season with the team, Fairbairn, and long snapper Jon Weeks. Granted he’s just a long snapper (important role but not physically taxing), but Weeks is in his 15th season with the Texans and has yet to miss a game-244 regular season games (with Saturday his 14th playoff game, also without a miss). Presuming he is back next season, Weeks (who turns 39 next month) can crack the top five list of most consecutive games played in NFL history by answering the bell in the first 12 regular season games.
*The Texans’ three early TDS in the 51-31 loss at KC: 1. Kenny Stills with a 54-yard reception 2. Lonnie Johnson with a 10-yard return of a blocked punt 3. Darren Fells with a four-yard grab
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!