Kevin Harvick is a win machine. Matt Sullivan/Getty Images
This Saturday the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads for Bristol Motor Speedway for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. Aside from its ridiculously bad name, this race is heralded as one of the most anticipated races all season. Over the last few years, this race has been a big factor in who makes the playoffs and who doesn’t. One of the biggest variables for Saturday's race is that it will be run at night. This should make the track a lot cooler which would give the track more grip which makes for more passing opportunities around the racetrack. The last time they were here, Kyle Busch passed Kyle Larson in the closing laps to claim his second victory of 2018.
Last week at Michigan, Kevin Harvick continued much of what we have seen all season and went on to cruise to his sixth victory of 2018. Overall, he wasn’t challenged at all by anyone as he led a race high 108 laps and swept both stages. While Harvick was the main story, the one surprise of the race was how well Austin Dillon ran. From the time they rolled off the truck, Dillon and his team were a top five car but to see him go out and lead laps and contend for the win was fairly surprising seeing how much that this team has struggled ever since their breakthrough victory in the Daytona 500 in February. Don’t be surprised if his fourth place effort could really be a big momentum shifter going into the playoffs.
Aside from the domination of Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch seemed to be the big topic of discussion on the NASCAR front. Last Friday, it was announced that the 2003 NASCAR Winston Cup Champion would be leaving Stewart-Haas to presumably join Kyle Larson and Earnhardt-Ganassi racing and replace Jamie McMurray in the No. 1 Car. When asked by journalist Clara B. Lang about the move he was ADAMANT that nothing official had been signed and everything that came out was simply “hearsay.” While he didn’t confirm that he was going to drive for Ganassi, he did confirm that he was talking to other teams about his 2019 plans. This would pretty much confirm that his time is all but over at Stewart-Haas.
This would leave many to ask, what is next for the No. 41 team in 2019? Many drivers have been mentioned but the one that stood out the most was Kasey Kahne. When it was announced that Busch was more than likely going to go in another direction, according to motorsport.com, a representative from Stewart-Haas approached Kahne to be Kurt’s Successor but much to the surprise of EVERYONE, he turned down the offer and shocked the racing world by announcing that he will retire at year’s end. It’s safe to say now that the infamous Silly Season is now in full swing and it should be interesting keeping up with all of the rumors and possible announcements that will develop in the coming weeks.
As usual, this week Kyle Busch comes into this race as the 7/2 favorite to win this week. As I mentioned earlier, Busch won the last time the Cup series came here in April. This is a track that has not always been kind to him and when you look at the numbers, his average finish here over the last five races is an absolutely horrendous 22.80. The reason being is because his results have been wildly inconsistent, he has either won the race or crashed and nothing in between. Even though he had his struggles he now seems to have it figured out as he has won there the past two races here and looks to make it a three-peat. Busch should be the team to beat when the green flag falls.
While it would be easy to pick Busch to win this week, I am going to go a different and pick his teammate Denny Hamlin. Last week, it seemed like Hamlin was finally in position to take his first win in 2018 he started from pole and it seemed like he was going to have a breakout race, but for some reason he just couldn’t seem to keep pace with Harvick. In fact, he actually struggled to find long run speed and had to settle for a disappointing eighth place finish. All season, many have considered him to be one of the drivers that can be the spoiler when it comes to the “big three” of Kevin Harvick, Truex and Busch but over the course of the season, he just hasn’t been able contend for wins but this week, that should change. While Hamlin hasn’t quite been a contender to win races, he has done a fantastic job at collecting stage points and staying in the top 16, but if at the end of the season Hamlin has not won a race it would be all for naught. I don’t see that happening though, as he is one of the premier short track racers in the field as he holds the second highest finishing average amongst all active drivers behind Kyle Busch. Look for Denny Hamlin to take his No. 11 Fedex Toyota Camry to victory lane for the first time on saturday.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Refrence.com the best website for all NASCAR stats Also, thanks to Motorsports.Com for providing the scoop on Kasey Kahne).
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The Astros have already been swept in four series this season. They were swept in four series all of last season. As Mexico City says bienvenidos to the Astros this weekend, there are certainly more than a few folks fretting that the Astros are already close to saying adios to playoff hopes. The Astros are not at the point of no return, though one can see it out there on the horizon. It wouldn’t take another month of their garbage level 7-19 performance for the season to be essentially down the drain.
If the Astros were in the American League East, they’d already be ten games out of second place. But they’re not! If in the AL Central they’d be eleven and a half games back of Cleveland. But they’re not! Dozens of teams have rebounded to win divisions from larger deficits much later in the season than the Astros face presently. The Seattle Mariners lead the thus far weak AL West at 13-12. The Astros being six and a half games in arrears of the M’s and six back of the Texas Rangers in late April is far from optimal but nowhere near devastating.
Multiple media outlets have noted how few teams historically have started a season in as stumblebum a fashion as the 2024 Astros and wound up making the playoffs. What every outlet I have seen noting that failed to include: this is just the third season since Major League Baseball added a third Wild Card to each league’s postseason field. So, while 7-19 out of the gate is indisputably awful, it is not the death knell to the extent it has been over generations of MLB.
The issue isn’t where the Astros sit in the standings, it’s that they have played atrocious baseball and aren’t providing reason for optimism that a stark turnaround is imminent. The starting rotation is the best hope. Justin Verlander has made two starts. Framber Valdez rejoins the rotation Sunday. Cristian Javier should be a week or so away. Obviously, Ronel Blanco isn’t going to continue pitching as well as he has through his first four starts. But if he is a good number four starter, that’s fine if the top three coming into the season pitch to reasonably hoped for form.
Hunter Brown simply is not a good big league pitcher. Maybe he someday fulfills his potential, but the data at this point are clear. What can Brown do for you? Not much. Spencer Arrighetti needs better command to be a good big league starter. J.P. France was a revelation over his first 17 starts last season, but since has looked like the guy who posted underwhelming numbers when in the minor leagues. If the Astros wind up with 50-plus starts from Brown/Arrighetti/France their goose will probably be cooked.
The only MLB teams with worse staff earned run averages than the Astros’ horrific 5.07 are the Chicago White Sox (Wait! They have Martin Maldonado!) and Colorado Rockies. At 3-22 the White Sox are on an early pace to post the worst record in the history of Major League Baseball. The Rockies never have a chance to post good pitching stats because of the mile high offensive freak show environment in Denver.
Way to go, Joe
Props to Joe Espada for his conviction in making what he believed to be the right call in pulling Verlander after four and a third innings Thursday at Wrigley Field. Verlander allowed no runs but had reached 95 pitches in just the second outing of the injury-delayed start to his season. Not easy for a rookie manager skippering what has been a Titanic journey thus far to pull a surefire Hall of Famer who was two outs away from qualifying for a win. Many were no doubt poised to destroy Espada had Rafael Montero given up the lead in the fifth. Verlander was angry at being pulled from any chance at his 259th career win. Understood, but the manager’s job is to make the decisions he thinks are in the ballclub’s overall best interest. That Montero and Bryan Abreu combined to blow the lead in the sixth is immaterial.
Then there's the offense…
Six runs total the last four games. Scored more than four runs in just one of the last nine games. Timely hitting largely non-existent.
At last check Alex Bregman still hawks that “Breggy Bomb” salsa. At the plate, he’s been mostly stuck in “Breggy Bum” mode, including zero bombs (home runs). 23 games played without a homer is Bregman’s longest drought since 2017 when he had separate 35 and 27 game stretches between dingers. Bregman has a history of slow first months of the season, but never anything as inept as he’s posted thus far. A litany of lazy fly balls, infield pops, and routine grounders add up to a .216 batting average and feeble .566 OPS. Reference point: Martin Maldonado’s worst OPS season with the Astros was .573. If Bregman was a young guy handed a starting job coming out of spring training, if a viable alternative were available, there’s a chance he’d be a Sugar Land Space Cowboy right now. Bregman’s track record makes it a decent bet that he winds up with decent numbers, but nothing special. Certainly nothing remotely worth the 10 years 300 million dollars or whatever Bregman and agent Scott Boras intend(ed) to seek on the free agent market this coming offseason. Two hits Thursday did get Bregman to the 1000 hit plateau for his career.
Despite arriving south of the border with his batting average at .346, even Jose Altuve has his warts. With runners in scoring position, Altuve has one hit this season. One. In 16 at bats. Small sample size, but it counts. That’s .063. Yordan Alvarez has been no great shakes either, five for 24 (.208) with RISP.
One wonders what would happen if the Astros got a hold of and “lost” Jose Abreu’s passport/visa this weekend in Mexico City and Abreu couldn’t get back into the U.S. after the two-game set with the Rockies.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.