Keep an eye on Kyle Larson this weekend. Photo via: Wiki Commons.
The time is finally here, this week at Phoenix a champion will be crowned for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season. It's been a long road with many twists and turns. There were 17 different winners, including three who captured their first career wins. The four drivers who will race for the title this week are Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Martin Truex Jr. Each of these drivers deserve to be here. This feels like one of the most competitive championship races we have had since NASCAR installed this format back in 2014.
For the second time, the season finale will be held at Phoenix Raceway. This will be the second time the Cup Series comes here this season. This track is a mile and a half in length with nine degrees of banking in the corners, which narrows out to about three degrees of banking in the front stretch. The race will feature a 750 horsepower package as we saw in the spring, so it will be a bit easier to pass. With this race being as important as it is, there will be qualifying and practice, to give the field and the championship drivers a chance at making their car better.
As I mentioned earlier four drivers will have a chance at the championship this week, the driver who comes in as the heavy favorite has to be Kyle Larson. It has been a dream season for the California driver. He has set numerous records, including most laps led in a single season. He has completely exceeded expectations and the craziest thing is that he probably should have at least two or three more victories. Larson has scored an incredible 402 stage points and because of this, he's had the easiest path to the championship race. Even when he hasn't needed to, this team has still gone out and won races. It would almost be unfair if they don't close it out and win the title. This five-team will easily be the driver to beat come Sunday, but he hasn't always had the best of luck at this track. While his numbers are good here, there has been a lot of heartbreak for him like when he was bulldozed out of the way by Ryan Newman in 2014 or when he received speeding penalty in pit-road here in the spring. If he's going to win this championship, Larson and his team will need to be perfect. He can't afford to have to drive through the field because of a bad pit-stop or a speeding penalty. Look for Larson to try and cap off a dream season with his first championship.
Larson's teammate and defending champion Chase Elliott will also be the fan favorite this week. This is a track that has been very good to him. Over the past three races, he has yet to finish outside the top ten, including his big win here last season. Elliott's path to the championship has been paved by consistency and wins on the road courses. While the consistency has been there, it seems as if he's kind of been the second fiddle to his teammate. Luckily though, they have been here before and can do it again. In the last race here, Elliott was in the top five but never really in contention to win. That's going to have to change come Sunday if he wants to win his second title.
Despite all the controversy, this has been an exceptional year for Denny Hamlin. While he's only won two races, he has been the model of consistency with an 8.8 average finish and 24 top ten's. That's better than anyone else in the field. The road to get here had plenty of bumps along the way including last week. In the closing laps, he tangled with Alex Bowman in turn four knocking him out of contention for a win and nearly out of the championship. But because of the number of points he accumulated, he was able to solider on and limp into the championship. He has also been really good at this racetrack, with back-to-back top-five finishes. This can finally be the year that he breaks through and wins that first championship.
Martin Truex Jr comes into the race as the fourth and final spot and what many would consider the underdog, but this is quite the contrary. Back in the spring, Truex went on to capture his first win of 2021 here. If anything, he should have the best chance, but in the past few weeks, the 19 has had plenty of close calls. Like at Kansas where he had a flat tire that he had to battle back from, or at Martinsville when he damaged his right front quarter panel after contact with Brad Keselowski. In both of these instances when it should have been over for him, he fought back and salvaged a good finish. If this team can keep up its tenacity as they have in the last round, it will be hard to count him out on Sunday.
The driver I am predicting will win the championship is Kyle Larson. This season he has simply been too good, he's been fast on every single type of racetrack on the schedule. Look for Kyle to complete the dream season and capture his first title.
The NFL playoffs are finally here, and the Texans will kick off the postseason by hosting the LA Chargers this Saturday at NRG.
And while the Texans are only 3 point underdogs, the national media is making it seem like Houston has no chance against Justin Herbert and company.
ESPN's Rex Ryan has gone as far as calling the Texans a "bye" week for the Chargers, giving the team no chance to win despite playing at home.
However, the Texans are no stranger to this situation, as they were given little chance to win against the Browns in last year's Wild Card game. And we know how that ended, with the Texans thrashing the Browns 45-14.
It's certainly fair to predict the Chargers will come away with a win this Saturday, they have been playing much better football than Houston in recent weeks.
But it's important to remember that home underdogs have performed well in the Wild Card round. In fact, home underdogs are 16-14 all-time in the Wild Card playoffs, and both home underdogs won last year (Texans, Buccaneers).
Speaking of last year, many credit the Texans defense for securing the win over Cleveland, with two pick sixes in the second half helping to seal the deal.
But the real reason Houston won the game was because of CJ Stroud and the offense. Stroud threw 3 touchdowns before halftime and the team was leading 24-14 with six minutes left in the third quarter. That's when the defense tacked on two interceptions for touchdowns and put the game out of reach. Stroud and the offense also went on to score another TD on a Devin Singletary run.
If Stroud and the offense didn't put so much pressure on Joe Flacco and the Cleveland offense to score, he may not have forced those passes that were picked off.
Now, many will point to the Chargers having the best defense (points allowed) this season, but it's worth noting the Browns had the number one defense (yards allowed) last year as well.
Bulls on Parade
Houston's defense will have its hands full against a strong rushing attack led by JK Dobbins. And Justin Herbert has been terrific this season, spreading the ball around to his top two targets, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.
Fortunately for the Texans, they are extremely healthy on defense this week. While Jimmy Ward and Jalen Pitre are out for the year, we'll finally get to see linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Christian Harris play together for the first time this season.
The defensive line is expected to be at full strength as well, keep in mind Jonathan Greenard was injured and unable to play against the Browns last year.
Outlook on offense
We should see the best possible version of the offensive line this Saturday. We're all aware how many hits Stroud has taken due to poor o-line play. But with Tytus Howard and left guard and Juice Scruggs at right guard, Stroud should have more time to get the passing game going, featuring Nico Collins.
Speaking of the receivers, it's pretty amazing that this receiver group is almost identical to last year's in the Wild Card round. Stroud didn't have Stefon Diggs (on the Bills) or Tank Dell (injured) to throw to last year, either. But he does have one big addition in Joe Mixon this year. Hopefully, they can get Mixon involved in the passing game, and the shuffling of the o-line provides Mixon with some holes to run through.
X-factor
At least there's a possibility newly acquired receiver Diontae Johnson could provide a spark to the offense. Last year John Metchie and Robert Woods were the main targets besides Collins and Dalton Schultz.
What does Vegas think?
The Chargers are favored by 3 and the total is set at 42.5 points
Don't miss the video above as the crew from Texans on Tap previews this week's big game!