Ryan Blaney was a winner last week. Ryanblaney.com
This Sunday, the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads for Dover Delaware for the first race of the round of 12. Last week, Ryan Blaney advanced to the next round after taking the checkered flag in the inaugural Charlotte Bank Of America Roval 400. The race was one of the highlights of the season as both Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr. both spun in the final corner paving the way for Blaney to swoop in and steal the victory. This week, we go to a much different type of track in Dover. The last time the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup came here, Kevin Harvick thoroughly dominated after leading a race high 201 laps en route to his third victory of the season. While it’s the same track, the stakes will be much higher as one of the 12 drivers in the playoff field will look to clinch a berth into the round of eight and be one step closer to racing for a championship at Homestead.
Earlier this week there were some major announcements regarding next year’s rules package. Next season, NASCAR announced wholesale changes to the cars including limiting horsepower to 550, a smaller rear spoiler and a “tapered spacer” to restrict speeds on the cars and keep them closer together. The move was met with major criticism by not only fans but former drivers as well. The one thing that truly upset them was how NASCAR decided to cut back on horsepower. They think that these changes take the challenging aspect of racing out of the drivers' hands and that they are running too slow. Personally, I think it would only be fair to give it a chance and to see how it works out; besides if it’s anything like the all-star race, as I stated in the last article, the fans will be quick to change their tone and it should grow on them.
There will be two new rookies in the Cup Series in 2019, Daniel Hemric will drive the No. 31 Caterpillar Camaro for Richard Childress and Ryan Preece will drive the No. 47 Kroger Chevrolet for JTG Daugherty racing. Both drivers are coming off successful Xfinity campaigns and now will now get the call-up to drive in big leagues. I personally believe that the move to call Hemric up was due to happen at some point as he had been running so well in the Xfinity Series but the move to call Preece up was a bit surprising, While it is clear that he is a threat every time he races, many believe that his limited schedule in the lower divisions will make things more difficult in the Cup series. Only time will tell for the two but it is refreshing to see two drivers that worked incredibly hard and didn’t have a lot of help get their chance in the big time.
The driver that I have winning this week is Joey Logano. Coming into this race, Logano has been quietly flying under the radar. Last week, he emerged through the carnage to capture a 10th place finish and moved on to the next round and though he wasn’t talked about a lot as a contender, he stayed out of trouble. This week should be a different story for him. Overall, stats wise this track falls right in the middle for Logano. Over the course of his 19 starts here, He currently has three top fives and ten top 10s. While he hasn’t been exactly been a threat to win at Dover he has always been around the top 10 plus both of his teammates have also been running well so now it is his time to shine. Look for Logano to take the No. 22 Shell Pennzoil fusion to victory lane.
One of the sleepers to look out for this week is the young William Byron. This has been an up and down season for this year’s rookie of the year but this week should be a good change of pace for this young man. In his debut here, he went on to a 14th place finish and while that may not look that great on the surface, it should be noted that Dover is one of the tougher race tracks on the surface and to come in and have a solid top 15 really says a lot about his ability. He is looking to rebound after a tough race last week at the roval when he was swept up in a multi-car crash with seven laps to go. This week he should rebound and get a top 10 result as he continues to grow and develop into NASCAR’s next star.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Refrence.com the best website for all NASCAR stats)
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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