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This week, the NASCAR Cup Series heads for Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400. After last week's madness, everyone will get a chance to catch their breath at a much calmer track as Vegas is one of the many mile and a half racetracks on the schedule. All of the three and four wide we saw at Daytona will be much more limited here as we will more than likely see more long green flag runs and less side-by-side racing that we saw in Daytona. The one characteristic about this track that is the most difficult seems to be the entrance to pit-road as a lot of drivers have found themselves getting nabbed for speeding on pit road. Overall, Qualifying will also be important as well should we see what we saw last year as passing should be difficult with this high downforce package. I look for it to be a much more tame race than what we saw in the 500
Last Monday, NASCAR fans witnessed one of the most horrific moments in the sports history. On the final lap, veteran Ryan Newman crashed head-on into the wall and then went upside down on his roof only to be hit driver 's side by Corey Lajoie. and everyone held their breath as we all watched him be extracted from his car and transferred to Halifax medical center. Miraculously, just two days later Ryan was able to walk out of the hospital on his own power with his daughters at his side. While the wreck was awful, the fact that someone could walk away from that shows how far that the sport has come in regards to safety. There is still room for improvement when it comes to the races such as Daytona and Talladega. One solution that popular racing YouTuber David Land had thought up was a limit of overtime attempts on tracks like these considering the race had already gone past its advertised distance. I can empathize with what he is saying, but there have been many instances of races going past their scheduled distance and with no problem so I don't know how much that will help matters. In the end, I am no expert when it comes to the mechanics of these cars and what they can do to help keep them on the ground but overall, I hope that in some way shape or form that the sanctioning body can find a way to stop these cars from going airborne. We will see what they come up with.
While Ryan is recovering, it was announced that Xfinity Series Regular Ross Chastain will fill in. This comes as a surprise considering Chastain's ties to Chevy. This was definitely the right choice though as Ross is one of the most sought after prospects in NASCAR Right now. Last season, he nearly went on to a truck series championship with a truck that wasn't funded as much as some of the others, and he also performed well in his Xfinity series starts by capturing a win at Daytona for Kaulig racing and four top tens. Mind you he had a lot of success with a smaller budget team in JD Motorsports. If given the right opportunity, I truly believe that Ross can really perform well. I look for him to do a great job this weekend at Vegas and even contend for a top ten. Look for the #6 Mustang to run well on Sunday.
The driver that I have going to victory lane this week is Joey Logano. It has been a rough speed-weeks for the 2018 Champion, he has been the sight of much controversy after being involved in multiple pileups in both the Daytona 500 and the Busch Clash. Even his own teammate Brad Keselowski wasn't happy with him as he was caught up in both wrecks caused by his teammate. This week though I think it will be a much different story. Over the course of his last four races here, he has tallied a win and four top tens to go with it. He and his Penske teammates have really put on a clinic here and Sunday should be no different. Look for Logano to claim his first win of 2020 on Sunday.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Reference.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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