Ross Chastain is the driver to watch this week. Photo via: Wiki Commons
It’s throwback week as the NASCAR Cup Series heads for Darlington Speedway. Known as the lady in black, this track is recognized for its tough exterior and abrasive surface. The biggest challenge here is keeping the car off the wall. For some drivers, they use the wall to their benefit as there is a lot more grip. Last fall, we saw Kyle Larson throw a Hail Mary as he rode the wall all the way to the Start-Finish line to try and catch Denny Hamlin. Much like last week at Dover, tires will be a major factor in this race, more than likely the driver with the tires in the best shape will win.
Last week, Chase Elliott finally was able to capture his first win of 2022 at Dover. Chase wasn’t the fastest throughout the day, but he was there at the end and used pit strategy to fend off Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Ross Chastain for the victory.
While Elliott and his #9 team were celebrating, the same couldn’t be said for Denny Hamlin. Early on, Hamlin was the best car on the track, it seemed like he had the field covered and was well on his way to a victory. But during a pit stop his crew didn’t have his right front tire on tight enough, it disassembled itself coming off pit-lane. To make matters worse, he was wiped out by a car that was multiple laps down in Cody Ware, relegating him to an abysmal 21st place finish. To add even more insult to injury, Hamlin’s crew chief Chris Gabehart was suspended for four weeks because of this loose wheel. Denny wasn’t the only driver to lose a tire, as AJ Allmendinger had one go rouge on him as well. It is clear that these pit crews are having a tough time figuring out this new single lug tire. This could very well be a problem going forward into the season.
Another driver who has been slumping as of late has been Tyler Reddick. Ever since he and Chase Briscoe tangled at Bristol about a month ago, it has been a rough road for the California driver. In both races at Talladega and Dover, he’s been involved in an incident. Even in practice at Dover, Reddick spun out. This has been quite the slump for a driver that has really run well this season, on the bright side though, Darlington is a place that caters to his driving style. I look for him to get out of this slump and contend for a top ten
A driver that deserves some praise is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. This has been the season from hell for Stenhouse and this team. They are 27th in points, have only finished on the lead lap in 3 of the 11 races, and have an average finish of 24.6. It was impressive to see the #47 car run up front and challenge Chase Elliott towards the end of the race and score a 2nd place finish. Not a lot is known about the future of this team, as former Cleveland Cavs player and co-owner Brad Daugherty has pondered whether he wants to stay in the sport. The team has already downsized to one car from two. It’s good to see them find success under such uncertainty.
The driver I have winning this weekend is Ross Chastain. Over the past three weeks, no one has been better than he has. To think that he has won two races this season and is a championship contender is a bit of a surprise, but when you look at how well he performed last season in the #42, it’s not as much of a shock. Still, no one expected this kind of rise though, now he heads to a track that put him on the radar of former NASCAR owner Chip Ganssi. In a Xfinity race back in 2019, Chastain was driving for free for Ganassi and seemed to have the car to beat until Kevin Harvick and him got together. When it was over, Ganassi stuck his neck out for Ross and defended him in the media. When the team shutdown at the end of the season because of a corrupt sponsor, Chip helped Ross find a ride at Kaulig Racing in 2020 and then tapped him to drive the #42 the following season in the Cup Series, and the rest has been history. Ross is no slouch on this track, while his numbers here aren’t the best, he’s had top-ten speed in each race he’s ran for Ganassi. Last year, he finished third and was one of the fastest cars on the track, so he can win here. Look for Chastain to smash another watermelon with his third victory of 2022.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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