THE LEFT TURN

NASCAR heads back to Pocono for the Gander RV 400

NASCAR heads back to Pocono for the Gander RV 400
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This weekend, the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series makes its second trip to Long Pond, Pennsylvania for the Gander RV 400 at Pocono Raceway. Unlike last time, this track will feature a new traction control compound to help provide for more traction and more racing lines around the track. With this track being as wide as it is, this possibly could really improve the product on the track. The decision received positive feedback from two time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin. In an interview with journalist Jim Utter, he was quoted as saying "I've been an advocate for using traction compound at Pocono for a while now. It gives us much more lane options and that's what this aero package needs." This is a welcomed change after the last race here was fairly lackluster with Kyle Busch pretty much running away and winning by two seconds. We shall see what the future holds and if there are more lead changes than we saw back in June.

Last week, Kevin Harvick was able to claim his first win of 2019. He was able to hold off Denny Hamlin and score not only his first win but his team's first win as well. The conclusion of this race continued with NASCAR's recent run of fairly tame races with incredible finishes. On the last lap, Hamlin attempted to move Harvick out of the way but to no avail as he was able to save the car and drive to victory. Getting this victory was huge for him as he is now guaranteed a spot in the round of 16 and while he has run well enough to be in pretty good shape, they needed to get this monkey off their backs. Look for Harvick and his team to be legitimate favorites to win the title.

As we draw closer to the playoffs, the race to crack the top 16 is heating up. With nine drivers having already clinched a spot by winning, everyone else is battling to get above the sixteenth place cut-line in points. The most notable of those drivers is Jimmie Johnson. He currently sits 17 points out of the chase behind Clint Bowyer. This is truly uncharted waters for the seven time champion, as he has never missed the postseason since it was implemented back in 2004.

These last couple of weeks for Johnson have been horrendous as he has finished 30th in back to back races. Many have begun to speculate about what is going on with this team and why they are struggling as bad as they are. One aspect that most point to is the split between Jimmie Johnson and longtime crew chief Chad Kanus, while this definitely has some impact on his performance, one of the main reasons I believe is because of their inability to adapt to stage racing. Since stage racing was implemented back in 2017, Jimmie has all of one stage victory so he is definitely leaving a lot of points on the table when it comes to getting into the playoffs and whether we like it or not, stage racing is not going away anytime soon. This season Jimmie has amassed only 47 stage points from each race and with the drivers ahead of him and behind him in the standings accumulating more points, it doesn't seem to be getting any easier for him to get into the chase at the rate he is going. Overall, while he has shown flashes of being the driver of old a win is almost essential to get him into the playoffs. This week at Pocono, he is going to a track where he has won three times but has struggled as of late as his average finish here since 2017 has been 23rd. Jimmie will definitely be a driver to keep an eye on come Sunday as he looks to get back into the chase.

The driver I have winning is Erik Jones. Overall, he has been on a roll for the last two weeks as he has finished in third place at Kentucky and New Hampshire and after a difficult start to the season, he is beginning to establish himself as a driver that can contend for wins on a weekly basis and now he gets to race at a track where he has performed extremely well. Over the course of his five starts at Pocono, he has finished in the top five three times including a third place finish here back in June. Going into this season, this team has flown under the radar and has quietly been improving week in and week out and now they will finally get to reap the rewards of their hard work. I look for Erik to get his second career win come Sunday and get each of the four Joe Gibbs Racing cars comfortably into the playoffs.

(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Reference.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).

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Get your popcorn ready! Composite image by Brandon Strange.

Filed the column early this week with Astros’ baseball that counts arriving Thursday! Ideally that arrival occurs with Minute Maid Park’s roof open under sunny skies with temperature in the mid-70s and only moderate humidity (that’s the forecast).

As they ready for their season-opening four game series, the Astros and Yankees enter 2024 with streaks on the line. The Astros take aim at an eighth consecutive American League Championship Series appearance while obviously aiming ultimately higher than that. The Yankees are a good bet to fail to make the World Series for the 15th consecutive season, which would be a new Yankees’ record! At its origin in 1903 the franchise was known as the New York Highlanders. The name became the Yankees in 1913, with the first franchise World Series appearance coming in 1921. So that was 18 years of play without winning a pennant. Maybe that gives the Yanks something to shoot for in 2027.

On the more immediate horizon, the Astros and Yankees both start the season with question marks throughout their starting rotations. It’s just that the Astros do so coming off their seventh straight ALCS appearance while the Yankees are coming off having missed the postseason entirely for the first time in seven years. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole can spend time Thursday chit-chatting about their days as Astro teammates because they won’t be pitching against one another. Cole’s absence hurts the Yankees more than Verlander’s should the Astros. Cole was the unanimously voted AL Cy Young Award winner last season, and at eight years younger than Verlander the workload he was expected to carry is greater. Cole is gone for at least the first two months of the season, the Astros would be pleased if Verlander misses less than one month.

Whoever does the pitching, the guy on the mound for the Astros has the benefit of a clearly better lineup supporting him. The Yankees could have the best two-man combo in the game with Aaron Judge batting second ahead of offseason acquisition Juan Soto. Two men do not a Murderers’ Row make. Gleyber Torres is the only other guy in the Yankees’ projected regular batting order who was better than mediocre last season, several guys were lousy. The Astros have six guys in their lineup (Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, and Yainer Diaz) who were better in the batter’s box than was Torres last season. The Yanks have hopes for a healthy and huge bounce back season from the brittle and 34-years-old Giancarlo Stanton. Good luck with that.

Man with a plan

We have to see how things play out over the season of course, but it is exciting to see new manager Joe Espada’s progressive outlook on a number of things. Acknowledging that Astros’ baserunning has too often been deficient, Espada made improving it a spring training priority. The same with Astros’ pitchers doing a better job of holding opposing base runners at first with base stealing having occurred with the highest success rate in MLB history last season. Tweaking the lineup to bat Alvarez second behind Altuve is a strong choice. Having your two best offensive forces come to the plate most frequently is inherently smart.

Opting to bat Tucker third ahead of Bregman rather than the other way around also seems wise business. Let’s offer one specific circumstance. An opposing pitcher manages to retire both Altuve and Alvarez. Tucker walking or singling is much more capable of stealing second base and then scoring on a Bregman single than the inverse. Or scoring from first on a ball hit to the corner or a shallow gap. I suggest in a similar vein that is why the much older and much slower Jose Abreu should bat lower in the lineup than Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz. Though Espada giving Abreu veteran deference to get off to a better season than Abreu’s largely lousy 2023 is ok. To a point.

Eye on the prize

The ceiling for the 2024 Astros is clear. Winning a third World Series in eight years is viably in play. The floor is high. Barring an utter collapse of the starting rotation and/or a calamitous toll of injuries within the offensive core there is no way this is only a .500-ish ballclub. That does not mean the Astros are a surefire postseason team. The Rangers may again have a better offense. The Mariners definitely begin the season with a better starting rotation. In the end, other than when it impacts team decision-making, prognostication doesn’t matter. But these two words definitely matter: PLAY BALL!

To welcome the new season we’ll do a live YouTube Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast about 30 minutes after the final out is recorded in Thursday’s opener.

Our second season of Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is underway. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. On our regular schedule the first post goes up Monday afternoon. You can get the video version (first part released Monday, second part Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available at initial release Monday via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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