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This week, NASCAR heads for the Bluegrass state for the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Motor Speedway. This track is a 1.5 mile tri-oval with tightly banked corners of seventeen and fourteen degrees. Back in 2010, NASCAR announced that it would add this track to the schedule and while it was met with much intrigue then, this track has provided much more tame racing than many would expect. Back in 2015, it was announced that this track would be repaved and reconfigured to fix some of the track's issues with moisture. After this repave, the part of the track that was most affected was turn three. This part of the track is easily the most challenging as there have been multiple incidents on this corner. This should be were all the action is come saturday.
Last week at Daytona,part-time driver Justin Haley pulled off arguably the biggest upset in NASCAR history as he was able to claim his first career win after the rain ended the race prematurely. Driving for newly formed Spire Motorsports, he was able to avoid the big wreck that claimed 18 cars and take the lead right before the rain came. Many would label this victory as a fluke considering he only led one lap but it is important to note that he was running around the lead pack before the last caution.
Another facet fans took issue with was how this team came about in the first place. Back in the off-season, owners TJ Puchyr and Jeff Dickerson purchased the charter from Furniture Row racing and announced that they would be the newest team on the grid. This charter ensured that the team would be assured a spot in each of the thirty-six races in 2019 as opposed to open teams that do not have a charter and are not assured a spot. Many also thought that the team's victory had no bearing on the regular season considering that neither Haley or the team would be eligible for the playoffs. When not racing in the Cup Series, Haley is an Xfinity series regular so that is where he collects his driver points making him only eligible to compete for a championship in that series. Overall, while this wouldn't happen in almost any other circumstance, I think that it is pretty neat to see a new driver go to victory lane for his first win. While I will agree that NASCAR's new charter method is severely flawed in every way, you can't really blame Sprie Motorsports for taking advantage of this and finding success. I wish them the best for the remainder of 2019.
Going into this weekend, the driver that I have winning this weekend is Martin Truex Jr. Over the last two races here, Truex has won both of them. In both of those starts, Truex has lead sixty percent of the laps run here so it's clear this track is basically Truex's playground. While I think that the new aero package may change things up a little bit, I still see Truex winning because of how well he has qualified here as well. Since 2017, he hasn't started worse than second and with Qualifying meaning as much as it does I think he should have no issue with that as well. He will be tough to beat come Saturday night.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Reference.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).
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Winning consecutive series over last place teams does not mean all is well again in Astroworld, but taking five of seven games from the Orioles and Rockies stopped the bleeding which saw the Astros stumble through an awful 14-23 stretch. The regular season is now in its final month, the Astros are in the middle of three different playoff races. The high-end goal is finishing with one of the two best records in the American League to secure a bye past the two out of three lightning round Major League Baseball calls the Wild Card Series. Entering the holiday weekend the Astros sit four games behind the Toronto Blue Jays, three and a half back of the Detroit Tigers. If the Astros can’t overtake either the Jays or Tigers, they at least want to hold off Seattle to win the American League West. Winning the division for an eighth consecutive full season would be its own accomplishment, for the postseason it would at least assure the Astros of homefield advantage in a best-of-three. The race the Astros hope to need to pay little attention to is holding off Kansas City for the final wild card spot. That would be necessary should the Astros lose out on the division title to the Mariners, and finish behind both the second and third place finishers in the AL East in the wild card race, presently the Red Sox and Yankees. The M’s, Bosox, and Yanks all finishing ahead of the Astros is a clear possibility. The good news on that front is the Astros holding a five game lead over the Royals with 28 games to go, though Kansas City does win the tiebreaker should it come to that. The Astros have a significantly easier closing schedule than do the Royals. The Astros have just six games left against teams that would currently qualify for the postseason. The Royals have 12. So to miss the playoffs entirely the Astros basically have to fold, and/or the Royals need to play four weeks of spectacular baseball.
Yordan Alvarez’s looooong awaited return is a big boost to the lineup. Even if he isn't peak Yordan, his presence matters. His missile of a home run to centerfield was the wow moment of his return series, but Alvarez drawing five walks in nine plate appearances speaks to what opponents think of him. Still, offense remains an Astro struggle all too often. The Rockies have the worst pitching staff in MLB. The Astros managed nine runs in three games against it. At least that was enough to win two out of three. 67 times this season the Astros have scored three or fewer runs, equaling their three or fewer total of the entire 2024 season. For a good while this year the Astros were winning an amazing percentage of their games where the offense did little. At one point the Astros were 19-27 when scoring three or fewer, which was stunning success and as I wrote at the time, wholly unsustainable. Since then, the Astros have lost 20 of the last 21 games in which they failed to score four.
Christian Walker’s power surge has been a boon, of late helping offset Jose Altuve’s slump (just 10 hits in his last 60 at bats heading into the Angels series) and Carlos Correa’s lack of thump (just two extra base hits and a sub-.700 OPS over his last 15 games). Over 46 games played from July 1 through Thursday, Walker has been very good hitting .279 with an .859 OPS. That doesn't undo his being wretched through June, but credit where credit is due.
Alvarez is the big bopper (remember the ex-Astro who had that nickname?) addition to Joe Espada's lineup cards, but Jake Meyers could be a lower key big return as well next week. To call Chas McCormick and Jacob Melton poor offensive players this season would be an understatement along the lines of saying Yao Ming is above average in height. When Meyers blew out his right calf it short-circuited what was his breakout big league season. Even if Meyers can't regain that form, by accident he'll still be better than what McCormick and Melton have provided.
After finishing up with the Angels on Labor Day, the Astros get the Yankees for three big games at Daikin Park starting Tuesday. Hunter Brown starting Sunday means he will not pitch against the Yankees. That's not a mistake, it's just how the rotation falls. It will be a mistake if the Astros' brain trust doesn't properly map out starting pitching ahead of the massive matchups against the Mariners September 19, 20, 21 and make sure both Brown and Framber Valdez start games in that series. After this homestand wraps, the Astro have only six home games remaining versus 15 on the road.
Oh yeah. Glenn Davis was "The Big Bopper."
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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