Getty Images
Alex Bowman
NASCAR wraps ups its Western swing this week as they head for Phoenix Raceway for the FanShield 500. This track has been a staple on the schedule since its opening in 1988 and will now play host to the season finale in November. The race on Sunday could be a precursor to what we see in the championship race. There should be a lot more attention on this race than there was prior.
Last week in California Alex Bowman went on to his second career victory after putting on a driving clinic. Throughout the day he led a whopping 110 laps and finished EIGHT seconds ahead of second place Kyle Busch. This was easily the most complete race I have seen him run in maybe his career. He has really begun to establish himself as an early championship favorite considering how competitive he has been this season. The success has really come at a great time for him considering that this is a contract year for him. If he can continue to run the way he does, it will be hard for Hendrick to let him go come season's end.
It was announced Monday that next season's new car will only have one lug-nut and many fans were NOT happy about it. The main criticism that people had was it was much too similar to F1 and how there aren't any cars on the road that have a single lug nut and honestly these sentiments are kind of ridiculous. I honestly have no idea why these fans continue to make such big deals out of things that won't really change much. Multiple experts have stated that using the traditional five lug-nuts would cause a safety issue that could possibly cause more wrecks or broken tires and certainly fans wouldn't want to see their favorite drivers go out with any mechanical issues. I applaud NASCAR for making this decision; they don't always make the right decision but this was something that they had to do. Overall, I think that there is a lot more positive than negative when it comes to this new car, the spoiler is much lower, there is less emphasis on down-force and from what many people are saying this car will be much more difficult to drive. During a test session, Willam Byron crashed one of the new cars, I also heard that Erik Jones also had issues with it as well so it should be interesting to see what happens.
The favorite coming into this week has to be Kevin Harvick. Every time the sport comes here, you can almost pencil him in as the winner considering he has won here nine times. For some reason, he has a real knack for this track. It could be because this is where the vetran cut his teeth here in the early days of his career in the NASCAR Southwest late model tour in the mid 90s so he could have leg up on the competition just from the amount of experience he has here. He will be hard to beat when the green flag drops.
The driver that I have winning this weekend is the driver I talked about earlier and that's Bowman. As we know this team's success has been one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2020 season. I think that this week, they will continue to shine and go to victory lane for a second consecutive week. Over time, this team has really begun to mesh not just on the track but off it as well as they all plan to get victory tattoos. It has really been a treat to see this driver mature into a race winner. This track is also special to him considering it's his home track. Look for Bowman to stay hot and go to victory lane again on Sunday.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Reference.com the best website for all NASCAR stats)
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
Rockets advance to NBA Cup semifinals after thrilling win over Warriors
Dec 11, 2024, 11:50 pm
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!