Getty Images
This Saturday NASCAR heads home to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the 34th running of NASCAR's All-Star Race. This is one of NASCAR's marquee events as there are no points on the line and the winner will receive a cool $1 million. This race will feature all the winners from 2019 and 2018, drivers who have won a championship and are competing full-time, and drivers who have won an all-star race as well. The race will be 85 laps in total and broken up into four segments including the final fifteen lap segment to decide the winner.
There will also be a consolation race before the main event as well called "the All-Star open." This race will be for the the rest of the field that does not fit the criteria to get into the main event. Popular drivers such as Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, Darrell Wallace Jr and Matt DiBenedetto will all participate in this race. The rules for this race are quite different than what we see in the all-star race, it will be a 50 lap race broken into three segments and the winner of each segment will automatically advance to the main event.
Another interesting aspect of this race is that it will also feature a fan vote. Each year since 2004, NASCAR has given fans a platform to decide who gets to be the final driver from the open to transfer into the main event as they can vote on NASCAR's website. Some of the favorites to win this award are Darrell Wallace Jr and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. This is one of the unique things about the race seeing how a lot of drivers come up with funny gimmicks to try and sway fans to vote for them. This week we saw that Stenhouse Jr went on record and said that he would grow a mullet if he wins the fan vote. As much as people might want to see him make good on this promise, I think Ricky will be able to win one of the segments and advance to keep his normal haircut. The other two winners will be Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman. The driver that I have winning the fan vote is Darrell Wallace Jr. It has been a rough 2019 for the young driver as the results haven't quite been what he has wanted and he has recently opened up about his battle with depression. I hope that if he isn't able to win one of the segments that this can bring some joy to an otherwise miserable season.
Moving on to the main event, this race will be one of the most intriguing races of the season. After seeing last year's race and the amount of competition we were able to see and this year should be no different. The driver that I have winning this week is Clint Bowyer. While he doesn't have the flashy numbers at this track, this fourteen car has steadily been getting better and better. This race also really caters to his hard charging driving style as he has shown over the years that he is not afraid to use the bumper (just ask Jeff Gordon) with this race being a non-points race, I could see him moving someone out of the way to get that Million Dollar Prize. Look for him to go to victory lane.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Reference.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
How Astros early tests provide important roadmap for first stretch
Mar 31, 2025, 4:42 pm
The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.
The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.
There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.
College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.
“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”
And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.
KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.
In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.
Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.
That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.
“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”
Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.
Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).
Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.
Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.
“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”
Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.
Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.
The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.
This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.
“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”