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The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads to home base this week in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Bank of America 400. This will be the second running on the Road Course/oval combination here at this prestigious racetrack. Last year's inaugural race here included one of the greatest finishes in the history of the sport after Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr. spun in the final corner allowing Ryan Blaney to emerge from third to first and claim his second career victory so as you can tell, this race has a lot to live up to. This is the last race of the round of 16, so the intensity will definitely be at an all time high come Sunday. On this track, there are two chicanes that have really given lots of drivers trouble. The first one is in the middle of the back stretch, this has caused many issues considering the high rate of speed that is carried from turns one and two. Drivers like Bubba Wallace and Erik Jones ran into trouble with this last year when they both suffered vicious crashes into the tire barrier. The other chicane is at the exit of turn four next to the pit-road entrance, this was another trouble spot for many drivers considering the race came down to this corner last season. Of all the places on the race track, this will be the most exciting section to watch with it being as narrow as it is and the amount of action we see.
Last week, Martin Truex Jr was able to capture his sixth win of the year and the second in a row after passing his teammate Kyle Busch for the lead with 25 laps remaining. Miraculously, Truex was able to recover from a late race spin on lap 325 after contact with Ricky Stenhouse Jr who was a lap down at the time. While Truex won the race, the feel-good story of the night was the phenomenal run by Ryan Newman. When the checkered flag flew, Newman took home a fifth place finish. This has been one of the best stories of the year as the veteran driver has taken this Roush racing team that struggled to even stay on the lead lap and not only put them in the playoffs, but contend for top fives. The result puts Newman fourteen points above the 13th place cutoff and in a very good spot to move on to the next round. Many people wrote this team off and said they would be bounced in the first round, including NASCAR's most popular driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. After seeing how well he ran, Jr even said it himself that he has to apologize to Newman because he was going out there and proving him wrong. While what the 17-year veteran is doing is impressive, it isn't necessarily new considering back in 2014 he was able to gain enough points to make the championship race at Homestead and come within a second of winning the title. Going into the next round, if he can keep up this consistency, Newman might have a chance to do some major damage throughout the playoffs.
The bad luck continues for third year driver Erik Jones. After finishing the race in fourth place, it was later revealed that his car failed post-race inspection as his car failed to meet the right measurement and for the first time since the 40s, a driver in the Cup series was disqualified from the race. This nearly kills any chance of Jones to point his way into the next round as now he will have to almost win to move on. It is definitely a shame considering how well the team ran during the night and it's all washed away. Jones will have to go into the Charlotte with guns blazing to stay in the hunt for this championship.
During the week, Ryan Newman wasn't the only Roush racing driver in the headlines. On Wednesday, it was announced that Jack Roush had terminated Ricky Stenhouse Jr's contract and he will not return in 2020. The driver that will take his place, 2015 NASCAR Xfinity Champion and Prosper, Texas native Chris Buescher. During the time of his championship, he drove for Jack Roush and was called up to the #34 Loves Ford Fusion for Front Row racing the next season. This would be where he would claim an upset victory at Pocono. He then would move to Cavaliers legend Brad Daugherty's team in 2017 and he has been there ever since. The move comes as a massive surprise to all of the NASCAR world considering that Stenhouse had a contract until 2021. While I think Stenhouse is a good driver, this might have been a move that needed to be made as Buescher has been way more consistent. This season, Buescher's average finish is an impressive 17.6 and compared to Stenhouses 20.9 average finish, Buescher can give you a chance to make the playoffs. With the announcement that he will be leaving JTG, this leads many to speculate who will take his place in the #37 Krogers Camaro. My money's on the former Richard Childress driver Daniel Hemric. It will be interesting to see how he meshes with Ryan Newman and what is next for Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
As I stated earlier, this will be the final race of the round of 16. Right now the drivers on the bubble are Ryan Blaney, Aric Almirola and Willam Byron. While Blaney has a fairly sizeable eight point cushion on thirteenth, Aric and William are living on the razor's edge as they are two and three points ahead of Alex Bowman. This is looking like it is going to be another dramatic finale considering Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch aren't too far behind either. Overall, If I had to predict who I would say would advance, I think that Aric will stay where he is in 11th and Alex Bowman will advance eliminating his Hendrick teammate William Byron. The reason, I believe this is because of how well he ran at this track last year as he finished fourth. This should be a battle for the ages come Sunday.
The driver that I have winning this week is Brad Keselowski. As we all know, last season Brad almost pulled off an upset victory after taking his beat-up Ford all the way back to the lead. It looked like he was on his way to victory until driving head-on into the wall in turn one after a late race restart. This year, I think that Brad will learn from the mistakes he made last year as he should be the car to beat. Look for him to take his mustang to victory lane for his fourth win of the season.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Reference.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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