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NASCAR: Hollywood Casino 400 preview, predictions

NASCAR Kyle Larson
Start your engines! Photo via: Wiki Commons.
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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kansas Motor Speedway this week for race two of the Round of 8. After Kyle Larson earned a championship birth at Texas, the rest of the field is as tight as it gets. Currently, the championship four as of now would be Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch. This week, we can expect to see a heavy focus on the top eight coming this week. Kansas has provided some great finishes over the year, including a battle between Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano which saw Logano take the checkered flag and advance to the championship race. Aerodynamics will play the biggest role in this race as it's a mile and a half track and while it might be tough to pass, the drivers will all be closer together. It will be all about timing, and the driver who makes the right move at the right time will more than likely win.

Last week, Kyle Larson went on to claim his 8th win of the season at Texas Motor Speedway. There was plenty of drama for the playoff contenders as Martin Truex Jr and Joey Logano both had issues that ended their race. While Texas has been known as sort of cookie-cutter mile and a half track over the years, this week there was plenty of drama and things to talk about.

Another playoff driver who garnered some controversy this week was Denny Hamlin. After getting involved in a run-in with Chase Briscoe, Hamlin channeled his inner Connor McGregor on the radio after the move, "Like who the [Expletive] are you?" when talking about Briscoe on the radio. While overall, this didn't affect his overall race, it was strange to see him get so triggered about a driver that was only racing him hard. This could be a problem here in the next few races if he gets too invested in other drivers. This has been an issue for a while with Denny Hamlin, he always drives like he is the only driver out there and nothing is ever his fault. It's caused a lot of problems for him in the past, like 2010 when he seemed to have the championship locked up but got nabbed speeding on pit lane at Phoenix and could never recover. Regardless, he is still the driver that poses the biggest threat to Kyle Larson in these next few races.

The driver who isn't in the Round of 8 but has been the most impressive is William Byron. These last two weeks he has been so fast and probably should have won both races at the Roval and at Texas, but an untimely caution or unfortunate circumstances have cost him a shot at victory. He will for certain be a championship contender in 2022 if he continues to run like this. He will also be one to watch this weekend at Kansas, as he has finished in the top ten in his last two consecutive starts. He starts ninth come Sunday.

The driver I have winning this weekend is Chase Elliott. As everyone knows Elliott is on the outside looking in, he is currently eight points out. The biggest reason as to why he isn't in the top four right now is not because he had a bad result, but because he only scored three stage points as opposed to Busch who scored 11. That has made all the difference. This week I see him changing all that and coming out and having a big weekend where he at least wins a stage along with the race. Here at Kansas no active driver has a higher average finish in the past five than Elliott. Plus, he has a victory here back in 2018. Look for Chase to join his teammate Kyle Larson in the championship race with a win. He rolls off fifth this weekend.

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Will Joe Mixon be the difference in the game? Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS

BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.

Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.

Series record: Texans lead 8-3.

Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.

Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.

Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).

Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).

Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).

Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).

Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.

Dolphins player to watch

QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.

Texans player to watch

QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.

Key matchup

Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.

Key injuries

Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.

Series notes

Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.

Stats and stuff

Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.

Fantasy tip

Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.

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