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NASCAR look ahead: Preview and predictions for the 2018 NASCAR Monster Energy Cup season
Trey Campbell
Feb 11, 2018, 11:18 am
NASCAR season opens with the Daytona 500. NASCAR.com
With the 2018 NASCAR season right around the corner, there have been MANY changes that have occurred since the checkered flag dropped in Homestead in November. There have been more driver changes than I can remember, big name drivers such as Dale Earnhardt Jr, Matt Kenseth and Danica Patrick have retired, Chevrolet has rolled out its new Camaro ZL1 and NASCAR has limited how many crew members can go over the wall and go to the race on a new "roster" system. We are in a very new age of the sport and these changes have been met with criticism by some of NASCAR's older demographic; nevertheless the show must go on in 2018 and even with a younger field with the average age being 25 there is due to be some new faces up front this season. With that said, here is my predictions for the new season.
First time Winners in 2018: As I alluded to earlier, this is the youngest NASCAR field we have seen in a long time and with such youth comes parity. Of the 40 cars entered in this week's Daytona 500, 16 drivers have yet to win a race in their careers and nine of those 16 are slated to run the full season. I think this year has the potential to have more first-time winners than we have had before. The first of those drivers will be none other than Dawsonville, Georgia's favorite son, Chase Elliott. Going into his third year of full time competition, NASCAR's newest prodigy has always been very close but has never been able to close the deal and get that elusive first win. Some fans are becoming impatient and are beginning to label him a "bust" but this young man is far from it. Look for Chase in his new No. 9 car to finally get that first win that has eluded him. I think this year he will win multiple races and become a contender for the championship. His first win this year will come at the short track in Martinsville. The reason that I am picking this race track is because he has unfinished business there. As we all know last year, Elliott was two laps away from winning the race and locking himself into the championship four before he was promptly taken out by Denny Hamlin. Look for Chase to be a championship contender in 2018. The next driver in line to win his first race is Erik Jones. With 14 top-tens and five top-fives last season, last year's rookie of the year will win his first race in the twenty car in 2018. Where will he get his first win? I say Bristol Motor Speedway. This track has easily been his best over the course of both his time in the Xfinity Series and the Cup Series. Another track I believe he can get it done at is Texas Motor Speedway. Now granted his results there on the Cup side has been meh with his best finish being 10th, but this track is special to this young man. In 2015, Jones captured his first Xfinity series win when he outran Brad Keselowski. Regardless of the track, look for last year's rookie of the year to be upfront. There will be three first time winners in 2018, with two locks in Chase Elliott and Erik Jones and a surprise winner in William Byron. After last year's Xfinity series championship campaign, it would hardly be a surprise to see the 20-year-old rookie win his first race but what is so surprising about him is how quickly he got there. In both his rookie seasons in NASCAR's "minor leagues" (Xfinity and Camping World Truck Series) this young man has a combined win total of ELEVEN WINS! That is almost unheard of. While I have made it clear that Byron is not my favorite driver out there, I would be remiss to say he doesn't have an insane amount of talent and he is a star in the making, even if his sponsor is a university that is run by a "controversial figure" (I had a bunch of other things I'd like to call him) in Jerry Falwell, Jr. Look for Byron to be a contender in 2018.
Sleepers to make the Playoffs in 2018: With NASCAR’s new Playoff system there are bound to be some unusual suspects to make the round of 16 come September. The first driver I think will surprise us this year is Alex Bowman. When given the opportunity after Dale Earnhardt Jr was sidelined with a concussion in 2016, Alex filled in and did an exemplary job and improved every chance he got. Bowman should be fun to watch this season. The last few years have not been kind to Kasey Kahne. Since 2016, he has only been able to win one race coming at the brickyard last year but now with a fresh start and a new team, I think change will be good for this veteran from Washington.
Who will be champion in 2018?
I believe that this will be the year that Kyle Larson will take his next step. Larson had a career year last year after winning four races, twice at Michigan, once at Richmond and at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana. He should have had a lot more, but he made some crucial mistakes in the final laps. I think that Larson will be a much more mature race car driver in 2018, not to mention it is Larson's fifth year of full time competition in the cup series. You know who else won their first championship in their fifth season? That would be the greatest NASCAR driver of all time, Jimmie Johnson.
This should be a fun season to watch with all the changes we have seen so far. I'll Check back in November to see if any of my predictions were right.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driver
averages.com and Racing-Refrence.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.