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NASCAR Cup Series at Nashville: Alley 400 picks, preview

NASCAR Cup Series at Nashville: Alley 400 picks, preview
Keep an eye on Ross Chastain this week at Nashville. Photo via: Wiki Commons.

After a one-week respite, the NASCAR Cup Series returns this weekend for the Second annual Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway. Much like its counterpart, World Wide Technologies Raceway, this racetrack was on the brink of permanent closure in 2012 when owners Dover Motorsports announced it was not going to feature a NASCAR-sanctioned event. While the track remained active for testing and a movie filming location, the prospect of a race returning to the track looked bleak. It wasn’t until 2020 when it was announced that the track would be hosting its first cup race, replacing one of Dover’s dates the next year in 2021. Attendance-wise, the race was a massive success as the race sold out rather quickly. It’s safe to say that this little 1.33-mile racetrack will be a mainstay on the schedule long into the future.

This track is one of the three concrete tracks on the schedule and as everyone knows, this type of surface is excruciating on tires. Like we see every week, this will be another race where drivers will have to be smart in keeping the rubber in good shape. The first pit stop last season was around lap 45, but with these tires being less reliable, expect everyone to peel off into pit road sooner.

Two weeks ago at Sonoma, Daniel Suarez finally captured his first career victory in the NASCAR Cup Series. It was a feat 195 races in the making for the 2016 NASCAR Xfinity Series champion. The path to victory lane had many twists and turns for the Mexican-born driver, starting in 2017 he was given the call to replace the retiring Carl Edwards at Joe Gibbs Racing and two seasons later was eventually replaced by Martin Truex Jr. After his untimely exodus from Gibbs, Suarez was given another opportunity with Stewart-Haas Racing. During that time, he showed flashes and was consistently around the top ten, but ultimately it was Déjà vu all over again as he was replaced by Cole Custer in 2019 after only one season with the team. Finding a quality ride for Suarez did not come easy as he struggled mightily in 2020, but redemption would come as he would excel driving for newly formed Trackhouse Racing the next year. Suarez and his teammate Ross Chastain have both been in the trenches when it comes to their NASCAR careers, they have driven old cars and have had to slug their way to where they are today. And now it looks like the grind is finally paying off. This will be a fun team to follow going forward into the summer months.

One driver who was on the opposite end was Kyle Larson. When the race started, it seemed like this was going to be another dominant performance by him and his Hendrick racing team, but after a bad pit stop, Larson was mired back in traffic. Things got 100 times worse when he would lose a wheel later on in the race. Because of this, Crew-Chief Cliff Daniels will be suspended for the next four races. This is a big loss for the defending champion, but on the bright side, his interim Crew-Chief Kevin Meendering is a viable backup. I don’t foresee this being too much of an issue, and look for Larson to be one of the favorites to win come Sunday.

The driver I have winning this weekend is Ross Chastain. Last season, Ross was incredibly fast here. Towards the end, it seemed like he was the only car that could run with Kyle Larson as he finished second. After each stage, Ross would continue to climb as he started the race in 19th, but he just didn’t have the car that Larson did. Now, with a little bit better of a team behind him, he is the odds-on favorite to win. Trackhouse racing is on a roll right now coming off a victory with Daniel Suarez and I expect them to keep that momentum going come Sunday.

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Who can the Astros turn to? Composite Getty Image.

In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.

Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?

The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.

Batter up?

While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.

Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.

GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?

Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.

Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.

No regrets?

There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.

Big deals on the horizon?

All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.

The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.

We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!

*ChatGPT assisted.

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