THE LEFT TURN

NASCAR: Penzoil 400 preview, picks

NASCAR: Penzoil 400 preview, picks
Keep your eye on Kyle Busch this weekend. Photo by Wiki Commons.
NASCAR: FireKeepers Casino 400 preview, predictions

This week, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Penzoil 400. This is one of the more challenging mile and a half tracks because of how slick the surface gets. This is something that could come up Sunday. After last week's debacle, NASCAR will shorten practice as well to give the teams a chance to prepare their backup cars for qualifying in case of any accidents.

Last week, defending champion Kyle Larson went on to capture his first victory at Auto Club Speedway. The finish was not without controversy as Larson was involved in a dust-up with his teammate Chase Elliott. Entering turn one, Larson moved up into Elliott’s lane, forcing him into the wall and effectively ending any chance at a victory. In the closing laps, Elliott spun out causing a caution, erasing Larson’s lead. As this happened, many people (myself included) threw out the idea that Elliott spun out on purpose to make things more difficult for his teammate. While it made sense at first look, Elliot’s damage from the contact made the car difficult to drive, thus causing him to spin out. Overall, I think you can chalk this up as just a racing deal, and these teammates will be able to continue on with relatively no issue.

Another big storyline last weekend was the tires. After a driver spun out, driving the car with a flat tire was impossible, and the cars had to be towed back to pit lane. It was frustrating to watch considering this has never been too big a problem over the years. You can bet that NASCAR and Goodyear are working hard to rectify this issue. Hopefully, they can come up with a solution.

One positive story this week was how fast Erik Jones and the Richard Petty-GMS Motorsports team were, as they qualified on the front row and were able to lead 18 laps, the second-most among the field. His teammate Ty Dillon also had a respectable run as well, as he finished 17th. This could be a team to watch during the coming weeks, it’s clear that the alliance with GMS racing and Mike Beam has helped this team immensely. I wouldn’t rule out Jones getting a win this season if he can keep up this pace.

Another team to watch out for is Trackhouse racing. In the last two laps, it appeared that their driver Daniel Suarez was on his way to his first career victory, but just couldn’t hold off the charge from Kyle Larson. The move by team owners Justin Marks and rapper Pitbull to purchase Chip Ganassi Racing sent shockwaves throughout the garage, and now it's looking like the investment is paying off immensely. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if either Ross Chastain or Daniel Suarez or maybe even both win a race this season.

The driver that I have winning this weekend is Kyle Busch. Though the hometown hero only has one victory here, he has been knocking on the door. In the last three races here, he has finished third twice and sixth once. This track is modeled after the bull-ring he cut his teeth on in his early days. There aren’t many active drivers that know how to get around this track better than Rowdy, as he has the second-highest average finish among all active drivers. Look for Rowdy to rebound nicely and score the win.

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Can the Astros overcome the loss of Bregman? Composite Getty Image.

So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.

Reminders...

Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.

It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.

For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.

Who's on third?

Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.

There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.

Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!

New beginnings

Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!

Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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