THE LEFT TURN

NASCAR: Phoenix championship preview plus picks

NASCAR: Phoenix championship preview plus picks
It's go time! Photo by Wiki Commons.

The time has come, the NASCAR Cup Series heads for Phoenix for the last race of this insane 2020 season. Right from the start this year has been one unlike any other from the Ryan Newman crash in Daytona to the massive global pandemic that paused racing for nearly three months. This has not been a continental season in the slightest. But now it all resets, it all hinges upon four drivers who will race for a championship on Sunday.

For the first time in the sports history, the season finale will be held at Phoenix Raceway. This track is a one mile "superspeedway" with an asphalt surface. It also features a huge dip in the front-stretch called the dogleg. Because of this, we see a bunch of cars drop all the way off the racing surface to try and make a pass. The finish line was also moved all the way to the entry of turn one similar to what we see at Talladega, so this is where most of the action will be on the track.

The winner last week was Chase Elliott, he was able to fend off a last second charge from all three Penske cars in the closing laps. This victory officially punched his ticket to this week's championship race for the first time in the young driver's career. This had been a long time coming for the fan favorite as he has been in contention every year. He now goes to a track where he has been good in the past but recently he has really struggled including a last place finish here last November. This is certainly not a track that the 9 team has circled on their calendar but if they can find the speed they have shown there before, they can really contend for the championship.

The one thing he will have on his side is where he will be starting as he will be near the front row with NASCAR's new starting line-up procedures. If I know one thing though, if the prodigal son from Dawsonville can pull off the victory, there will be tons of celebration all around the racing world. If they are going to win though one thing crew-chief Alan Gufaston and his team may want to try and avoid this week is mistakes on pit-road. Last week his Jackman went over the wall too soon and Elliott was penalized for it. Lucky for them, he was spared as NASCAR rescinded the penalty because the crew member went back to the wall and touched it with his foot as Elliott entered pit-road. This doesn't make much sense to me personally but regardless they got a break, and he went on to win the race. They need to be careful because next time they might not be so lucky. Look for the #9 Camaro to be the fan favorite to win the title.

Joey Logano got his win out of the way early and clinched his spot at Kansas. He currently enters this week as the favorite to win the title considering he won at this track back in March before the whole world shutdown and while he does have that on his side, his stats here over the last four races don't look great for the 2018 champion. Since 2018, Logano has finished 1st, 9th, 10th and 37th here and any other time that wouldn't look too bad but considering you almost have to win this race to win the title, more than likely a top ten won't get the job done. Regardless, he has a great team behind him and will be the toughest driver to contend with this week. Look for Logano to be out front.

Joey's teammate Brad Keselowski will also be racing for a championship this week after getting in by the skin of his teeth. He was able to overcome a pit-road speeding penalty and rebound for a fourth place finish. He made it in by the narrowest of margins as he was one point ahead of Kevin Harvick for the fourth and final spot until Harvick spun himself and Kyle Busch taking Harvick out of contention. While a lot of people didn't really expect the 2012 champion to be in this position this week, Brad has done more than enough to prove that he has earned his chance. This year he has four wins and twenty-three top tens, so he has been quietly in the mix for a win every week. This track at Phoenix has not been good to him though as his last four finishes have been 11th,10th,19th and 2nd. He will have to improve big time if he wants a chance at his second championship.

The last driver to make it into the championship four was Denny Hamlin. Like Keselowski, he too was only one point to the good ahead of Kevin Harvick but thanks to his teammate, he was able to clinch a spot in the championship four. In the closing laps of the race, Hamlin was under immense pressure from his (soon to be gone) teammate Erik Jones. It looked like he was going to make the pass on him and force a tie between him and Kevin Harvick but someone came over the radio and said "Don't pass him Jones, stay with him if you can" thus practically sealing the deal for Hamlin. Many people were upset about this move but NASCAR saw no issue and didn't issue any penalties to the 11 team. While he got there with much controversy, all that matters is he got there and with the season he's had, it's hard to argue that he doesn't belong. Overall, he has won seven races and finished in the top five twenty times. Aside from Kevin Harvick no one has had a better season than him. Phoenix is a fairly good track for him, but he did finish twentieth in the spring. Look for the #11 FedEx Toyota Camry to be a contender as well.

Of the four drivers I have mentioned the driver that I have winning the championship this week is Denny Hamlin. Ever since his rookie year in 2006, the Virginia driver has been incredibly fast. Many considered him a driver that would win a lot of championships in the future and while he has won almost everything else, a championship has always evaded him. At this point, many are already considering him the best driver to never win a title, but this week I think it will be a different story. At the start of the playoffs, if someone would have told me who the championship four would have been, first I would have cringed and then secondly I would say that Denny would have the best path to victory. Not to say that Elliott, Logano or Brad don't belong but considering the incredible season that Kevin Harvick had, I would have imagined he would be there as well, but he isn't. Those two have been the best out there, and we all would have figured it would come down to them but in sports, the two best teams don't always make it to the end.

Now this doesn't mean it will be easy for the three time Daytona 500 winner as both Penske cars and Chase Elliott have momentum on their side, but I just think the stars are aligning for the 11 team. Denny and his crew-chief Chirs Gabehart have done a fantastic job this season and now they get to go to a track where Hamlin has won at twice in the past. If they can put the perfect race together, they will have to pry the championship from his hands. Look for Hamlin to take the crown this season.

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The Rockets are in it to win it this year. Composite Getty Image.

While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.

The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.

Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.

As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.

The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.

VanVleet signs extension

Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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