Start your engines! Photo via: Wiki Commons.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Hotlanta this week for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. This track has been a staple among the NASCAR Cup Series since it was built back in 1960. This track provides a lot of spacious green flag runs, so we could see a lot of strategy this week as it is one of the more tame races on the schedule.
This season has been unpredictable to say the least. There have been five races and five different winners as the streak continued last week with Martin Truex Jr. winning at Phoenix. The race was fairly mild in spite of the race's twenty-two lead changes. There was a lot of speed early on from the Penske Fords as both Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney won stages one and two, but they were both no match for Truex as he made the race winning pass with twenty-four laps to go. This is a statement win for the 2017 champion as he looks to establish himself as the championship favorite.
While Truex and his #19 team were celebrating, his teammate Kyle Busch has been experiencing the exact opposite as his struggles continue. Two weeks ago at Las Vegas, Kyle made an awesome comeback after struggling for most of the day to finish third. Last week was a much different story. The two-time champion struggled mightily as he was outside the top twenty for most of the day. To add insult to injury, he was involved in an incident with Ross Chastain. This has easily been the most frustrating period of his career as he nearly went winless all of 2020 until winning at Texas in the fall. During this slump, there have been many who questioned why he was struggling so bad. One of the biggest reasons could be NASCAR's omission of practice and qualifying as he was never really able to adjust to that. Another could be he still isn't used to working with his new crew-chief, Ben Beshore. Whatever the reason, rowdy and his team still have plenty of time to turn things around.
The favorite to win this week has to be last week's winner, Martin Truex Jr. Over the last four races here, Truex has been one of the three best drivers by far. He currently holds an impressive 3.33 average finish here since 2017. Plus, he has a lot of good momentum going into this race considering his win last week. I look for him to lead a lot of laps this week considering he will be on the front row. He will be hard to beat come Sunday. Look for the #19 Toyota Camry to be a true contender this week.
The driver that I have winning this week is Brad Keselowski. Over the last two weeks, Brad has been on quite a roll with back-to-back top fives including a second place finish last week. Even though his season started off kind of rocky, Brad has been one of the best drivers out there. He is due for a win, and he's coming to a track where he has been great. He has won here twice in the last four years. Look for him to go to victory lane and become the sixth different winner in 2021.
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Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Key injuries
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Series notes
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Stats and stuff
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Fantasy tip
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.