Race Rundown

The NASCAR report: Ticket Guardian 500 preview

The NASCAR report: Ticket Guardian 500 preview
Alex Bowman has a good shot to get his first career win on Sunday. Alex Bowman/Facebook

This Sunday, the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Valley of the Sun in Avondale Arizona for the Ticket Guardian 500 at the newly renamed ISM Raceway. In the past two weeks, it has been all Kevin Harvick. Not only has he won the previous two races, but he has utterly dominated the competition. Overall, Harvick has led 395 laps while the rest of the field has led 404 laps! Not only is he the best driver in NASCAR right now but this week he goes to his best track. Over his thirty starts there he has won eight times, no driver in history has more wins or laps led than Kevin Harvick. It makes sense why he is so hard to beat there seeing how this track has many of the same characteristics as the old NASCAR Winston West Series and Truck Series.

While ISM is not the same type of track as the late Mesa Marin or Irwindale, the track has narrow corners and lower banking that you would see at a short track. In the Back straightway, there is a “Dogleg” that causes most drivers to dip below the yellow line and try to make a pass in the third corner, sometimes it works, most times it doesn’t. The track will also play host to lots of side-by-side racing. Two years ago Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards finished nose-to-nose in one of the most memorable finishes in NASCAR history. Look for there to be close racing this Sunday.

Here are my predictions, the obvious choice this week would be the 9/4 favorite and the man I mentioned earlier in the article, Kevin Harvick. Winning three out of the first four races of the season is almost unheard-of. The only times I can remember where someone even got close to doing this was David Person in 1976, Jeff Gordon in 1997 and Matt Kenseth in 2009. These drivers won the first two races of the season while Harvick won the second and third. But to start the season 3-1 would be uncharted waters in the sport, and if anyone can do it, I believe that Harvick has the best chance to. While he is the heavy favorite, I believe this week’s winner will be Alex Bowman. That's right, the Phoenix native will get his first career win at his home track.

While he isn’t the favorite for many, most have forgotten how close he came to victory here in 2016, but I haven’t. Bowman led a race-high, 194 laps and was two laps away from the finish when a crash involving him and Matt Kenseth ruined his chances and dropped him to sixth giving the victory to Joey Logano. Bowman comes into this race at 40/1 odds, but if there is any sleeper that can come out and surprise us, it would be him. This race has produced some memorable finishes in the past and hopefully, this week is no different.

(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Refrence.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).

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Joe Mixon has given the running game a huge boost. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images.

Joe Mixon has carried Houston’s offense in the three games since he returned from an injury.

The running back could be even more important this week with the Texans dealing with another injury to a top receiver after Stefon Diggs went down Sunday.

Diggs sustained a non-contact injury to his right knee and coach DeMeco Ryans refused to provide any details on his injury Monday, saying only that he’s still being evaluated.

His injury comes with leading receiver Nico Collins out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.

Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games. He finished with 102 yards rushing and a touchdown in Houston’s 23-20 win over Indianapolis on Sunday.

“Joe showed up big time for us when we needed him most making plays,” Ryans said.

Mixon, who is in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati, became the first player in NFL history to have at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in four of his first five games with a team.

The only time he didn’t have 100 yards and a score this season came in Week 2 when he missed almost the entire second half with an ankle injury that kept him out the next three games. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game.

If Diggs is out this week, Tank Dell is the most likely candidate to pick up the slack in the passing game.

His production has dropped off this season after a standout rookie year where he had 709 yards receiving with seven touchdowns in 11 games before breaking his leg. He has 229 yards receiving this season and scored his second touchdown in Sunday’s win which improved the AFC South-leading Texans to 6-2.

But Ryans said it will take a group effort to make sure Stroud and Houston’s passing attack, which rank eighth in the NFL, stay on track.

“What I loved about our game (Sunday) was that you saw was multiple guys stepping up and making plays,” he said. “That is what excites me the most about our team … a lot of different guys stepping up and making plays and that is what we will continue to see.”

What's working

Houston’s defense entered Monday’s game ranked second in the NFL by allowing just 280.3 yards a game. The strength of the unit has been the pass defense, which is giving up just 164.3 yards a game.

Safety Jalen Pitre, who had an interception Sunday, said the secondary has gotten a boost from Houston’s pass rush, which ranks third in the league with 27 sacks.

“We’re doing a pretty good job, but it’s a huge credit to our D-line,” Pitre said. “They’re outstanding. They do their job at a high level and it does nothing but make opposing quarterbacks know that they’ve got to get the ball out earlier and that turns into incompletions and interceptions.”

What needs help

The offensive line continued to struggle in pass protection Sunday. Stroud was sacked just twice but was hit nine other times and was under pressure on 57.5% of his drop-backs according to NextGen stats.

The Texans benched left guard Kenyon Green for Jarrett Patterson in the first quarter Sunday as he struggled against the rush. But Green had to come back soon after that because Patterson got a concussion.

Ryans said they’ll continue to evaluate the line to see how they can improve the protection.

Stock up

Dell, who is in his second season, had four receptions for 35 yards and a touchdown Sunday. The performance came after he was targeted four times against the Packers but finished with zero receptions. He has nine career touchdowns, which ties him with Will Fuller for most in franchise history through a player’s first 18 games.

“I’m just super proud of him, what he’s been able to do and he’s going to have to step up really big for us,” Stroud said.

Stock down

Green for his struggles in pass protection Sunday. The 15th overall pick in the 2022 draft missed all last season with injuries before returning to the starting lineup this season.

“We can definitely be better, especially on my end,” he said after the game.

Injuries

S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward is likely to miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury.

Key number

13.3% — Houston’s defense limited Anthony Richardson to a 13.3% completion percentage in the first half Sunday, which was the second-lowest completion percentage by any player in a half since 1991. The second-year quarterback completed just 2 of 15 passes before halftime.

Next steps

The Texans have a quick turnaround before a visit to the New York Jets on Thursday night where they’ll try for their fifth win in six games.

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