Race Rundown
The NASCAR report: Ticket Guardian 500 preview
Trey Campbell
Mar 8, 2018, 6:30 am
Alex Bowman has a good shot to get his first career win on Sunday. Alex Bowman/Facebook
This Sunday, the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Valley of the Sun in Avondale Arizona for the Ticket Guardian 500 at the newly renamed ISM Raceway. In the past two weeks, it has been all Kevin Harvick. Not only has he won the previous two races, but he has utterly dominated the competition. Overall, Harvick has led 395 laps while the rest of the field has led 404 laps! Not only is he the best driver in NASCAR right now but this week he goes to his best track. Over his thirty starts there he has won eight times, no driver in history has more wins or laps led than Kevin Harvick. It makes sense why he is so hard to beat there seeing how this track has many of the same characteristics as the old NASCAR Winston West Series and Truck Series.
While ISM is not the same type of track as the late Mesa Marin or Irwindale, the track has narrow corners and lower banking that you would see at a short track. In the Back straightway, there is a “Dogleg” that causes most drivers to dip below the yellow line and try to make a pass in the third corner, sometimes it works, most times it doesn’t. The track will also play host to lots of side-by-side racing. Two years ago Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards finished nose-to-nose in one of the most memorable finishes in NASCAR history. Look for there to be close racing this Sunday.
Here are my predictions, the obvious choice this week would be the 9/4 favorite and the man I mentioned earlier in the article, Kevin Harvick. Winning three out of the first four races of the season is almost unheard-of. The only times I can remember where someone even got close to doing this was David Person in 1976, Jeff Gordon in 1997 and Matt Kenseth in 2009. These drivers won the first two races of the season while Harvick won the second and third. But to start the season 3-1 would be uncharted waters in the sport, and if anyone can do it, I believe that Harvick has the best chance to. While he is the heavy favorite, I believe this week’s winner will be Alex Bowman. That's right, the Phoenix native will get his first career win at his home track.
While he isn’t the favorite for many, most have forgotten how close he came to victory here in 2016, but I haven’t. Bowman led a race-high, 194 laps and was two laps away from the finish when a crash involving him and Matt Kenseth ruined his chances and dropped him to sixth giving the victory to Joey Logano. Bowman comes into this race at 40/1 odds, but if there is any sleeper that can come out and surprise us, it would be him. This race has produced some memorable finishes in the past and hopefully, this week is no different.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Refrence.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.