The favorite coming into this weekend's race has to be Chase Elliott. Photo via: Wiki Commons.
NASCAR is back from the Olympic break as they make their return to Watkins Glen for the first time since 2019. This racetrack is one of the most exciting tracks in all the country. Every time the Cup Series comes here, it has featured some of the best racing in the business. The urgency is now much higher, considering there are only four races left before the playoffs in September. We will see a lot of drivers going for broke come Sunday, especially with the chance of rain that is in the forecast. This will be a race you won't want to miss.
This two-week break has left a lot of drivers refreshed, considering the grueling thirty-six race schedule that we see each week. A lot of fans weren't happy about it considering they didn't get their racing fix for two weeks, but overall I think this is a much-needed break for all the crews and drivers around the sport. There have been talks about making this more permanent in the future, and it might not be a bad idea. This also gives the teams a good benchmark on where they are this season and what they can improve on. It will be good to see where the momentum stands going into these next four races.
One of the big storylines this week is the playoff battle and who is going to get in. We saw somewhat of a surprise winner two weeks ago when Aric Almirola took the checkered flag at New Hampshire. This led to a big shake-up in the playoffs as now RCR teammates Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick are battling for that final playoff spot. Both drivers have had solid playoff-caliber seasons, with seventeen top ten finishes between them. Both drivers have been the model of consistency all year and make a great case to be in, but with there being so many winners this year, it's tough to know what is going to happen next. Even Kevin Harvick who sits eighty-two points above the cutline isn't safe if he can't get a victory. With tracks like Watkins Glen and Daytona coming up, the chances of another surprise winner is very possible. Drivers like Harvick, Reddick, and Dillon really need to get to victory lane.
While there are many candidates for a surprise winner in these next four races, there are a few that really stand out. One of those drivers is Ross Chastain. This has been a season with a lot to be excited about if you are a fan of the former watermelon farmer. He's scored six top ten and two top five finishes including a second-place finish at Nashville behind Kyle Larson. It was announced this week that Chastain would be returning to Trackhouse racing full-time next season as well. Since we are going to a road course this week, Ross will be one to watch considering how well he has run on the other three road courses this year. Look for the #42 McDonald's Chevy to be up front as he rolls off 12th.
The favorite coming into this weekend's race has to be Chase Elliott. He has simply been untouchable when it comes to road course races. He has captured seven victories on road courses, including his two this season at COTA and Road America. Even when he hasn't won, he has STILL been incredibly fast, as his worst finish in the last three road races has been second! Oh and by the way, at Watkins Glen, he's been pretty stellar as well scoring back-to-back victories the last two times the Cup Series has been here in 2018 and 2019. It's been a little bit of a surprise seeing the defending champion have so much success on these types of tracks considering he cut his teeth on the short tracks of the southeast. But when you look beneath the surface, it makes a more sense. For one, road racing is in his blood. Back in the 80s, Bill Elliott was just as fast on these types of racetracks when he would battle Rusty Wallace for the checkered flag. Having that type of advice to fall back on has to be worth a lot. Look for Chase to be a threat to get his third victory in a row here come Sunday.
The driver I am picking to win this week is Martin Truex Jr. This has been a bit of a tough second half of the season for the 2017 NASCAR champion, as there have been many up and down results since his last victory in May in Darlington. It just seems like they can get off to a good start, but when the race is over, they lose a lot of momentum and get a disappointing result. Take Dover this year for example, this team is coming off a victory and starting from the pole at his best track, but all they had to show for was a disparaging 19th place finish. It seems like when we get to long runs, this team seems to get left behind, but on the bright side, it's not all bad. This week, we go to a track where Truex has been the next best car behind Chase Elliott. I think a win could be a huge momentum boost for him going into the playoffs. With the past two weeks off they might have been able to mitigate the issues they have been having. Look out for the #19 Toyota to be fast this week.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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