SHOOTERS SHOOT
A historic NBA shift is coming with unclear consequences
Feb 25, 2025, 9:48 am
The Celtics are on pace to join the 2018-19 Rockets and 2020-21 Jazz. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.
The NBA is on the cusp of accomplishing something that it hasn't seen before. The jury's still out on whether it's a good thing.
With about seven weeks left in the season, 2-point shots are accounting for 49% of scoring. And if that stat holds up — there's no indication that it won't — this will be the first season in which 2-pointers make up less than half of the league's point production.
The current breakdown: a record-low 49% of scoring comes from 2-pointers, a record-high 36% comes from 3-pointers, and a near-record-low 15% comes from the foul line. Those numbers are just more proof of how the 3-point shot continues permeating the game, and that's why plenty of people are wondering aloud if the league has a real problem on its hands.
“I don’t have any problem with guys and teams shooting a lot of 3s,” said Golden State's Stephen Curry, the league's all-time leader in 3-pointers and someone closing in on 4,000 such makes for his regular-season career. “Obviously, that’s the way that I play, and I love that factor in the game. But you’ve also got to put the work in behind the scenes to take full advantage of it.”
This isn't a new phenomenon.
Barring some sort of major shift in how the game is played over the next seven weeks, the league is on pace to break the record for 3-pointers in a season (it’ll be the 15th consecutive season in which the 3s-per-game record falls) and 3-pointers attempted in a season (a new mark will be set there for the 19th time in the last 22 seasons).
Boston is leading the 3-point assault this year, though the Celtics are hardly the only 3-happy team. But the defending NBA champions are clearly more reliant on the shot than anyone else, with 46% of their points this season coming from beyond the arc. They'll almost certainly become only the third team in NBA history to finish a season with more points from 3s than 2s, joining the 2018-19 Houston Rockets and 2020-21 Utah Jazz.
“Everybody can’t play the same way," Celtics All-Star forward and two-time Olympic gold medalist Jayson Tatum said. "You've got to have the right personnel. But, you know, the way we play works for us. So, we play to our strengths.”
The Celtics are the only franchise in NBA history to have eight different players make 100 3s in a season; they've done it in each of the last two seasons and are on pace to do it again this year. For them, the 3-pointer is the golden ticket; they're 33-6 this season when they make at least 17 3s, and just 8-10 when they don't make that many.
They had five 3-point shooters on the floor together last season and the result was an NBA championship. It was, at times, impossible to guard. Golden State rode the brilliance of Curry and Klay Thompson to four NBA titles in their years as the Warriors' “Splash Brothers," a duo that helped usher in a new era of 3-point reliance. And the math is simple: shooting 40% on 3s gets you more points per attempt than shooting 50% on 2s does.
“Right now, I think the defense has to catch up and maybe NBA teams will shoot less 3s,” San Antonio star Victor Wembanyama said at the All-Star break, before he was shut down for the year with deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. “But analytics back it up, so it makes sense.”
Wembanyama was averaging 8.8 3-point tries per game this season, the most of any center in the league, and his 403 attempts on the season from beyond the arc is still more entering this week than some of the game's best shooters — a list of players that includes Phoenix's Devin Booker, the Los Angeles Lakers' Austin Reaves and Miami's Duncan Robinson.
But the numbers say it's a good shot. So, Wembanyama took them. A lot of them. The Spurs, for years, were a team that didn't prioritize the 3-pointer. And now, it's a weapon for them and everyone else in the league.
“The game has evolved,” said Golden State coach Steve Kerr, an elite shooter in his playing days.
It keeps evolving. Commissioner Adam Silver said earlier this month that he listened to an off-the-record conversation between Kerr and broadcaster Bob Costas at the tech summit during All-Star weekend, the keynote address of sorts for those who were invited to that event. Silver later shared that Kerr conceded there may be a bit too much 3-point shooting in today's NBA, but that he liked the current state of the game and wouldn't recommend any changes.
Silver thinks it's all cyclical. He said when the All-Star weekend last came to the Bay Area in 2000, “many people were saying it was too physical, we were too dependent on the dunk, that players weren’t sufficiently skilled as they were than in the old days.”
It's all very different now.
“The fact now that you can’t play in this league unless you can shoot, that even 7-footers have to be able to shoot these days and have to be able to shoot at long range, I actually think that’s a beautiful thing,” Silver said.
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How mounting mistakes make Astros setbacks harder to ignore
Jul 10, 2025, 3:10 pm
The late ex-catcher and longtime broadcaster Joe Garagiola wrote a book called “Baseball is a Funny Game.” He wasn’t kidding, whether he meant funny as amusing, peculiar, or both (he meant both). The Astros lived it this past week, following a very satisfying three-game slap down of a previously red-hot Dodgers team in Los Angeles by having a Cleveland Guardians squad that staggered into Houston on a 10-game losing streak sweep the Astros three straight. As I put it during one of our “Stone Cold ‘Stros” podcast episodes this week: baseball, like a word that rhymes with spit, happens. The Astros try to clean it up this weekend with a chance to kick dirt on the Texas Rangers’ presently extremely faint American League West hopes. While no fun to endure, the Astros getting swept is no big deal. They weren’t going the rest of the season without any more bumps in the road. Unless they falter badly and/or Seattle has a huge rest of the way, the Astros' 29-10 surge before the Cleveland series is the stretch that will most define them making the playoffs for the ninth year in a row. The Astros hadn’t lost a home series since early April. Their longest losing streak all season remains just three games. They have to beat the Rangers Friday night to keep it that way.
Erratic starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Jack Leiter match up in the series opener, then it’s a pair of humdinger matchups. Saturday Framber Valdez goes to battle opposite Jacob deGrom. Sunday Hunter Brown starts on four days rest for just the second time this season countering the Arlington team’s Nathan Eovaldi. Framber tries to bounce back from his worst showing in over two months. Brown tries to rebound from his worst start since July 6 of last year. deGrom is quite a story. There has been no more dominant starting pitcher in his generation. It’s just that deGrom almost makes McCullers’s injury history look not so bad. Jacob deGrom won National League Rookie of the Year in 2014. He won back-to-back NL Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019, then finished third in the short 2020 COVID season. In 2021 he was off to what if maintained would have been one of the greatest seasons ever. 15 starts with a 1.08 earned run average. 92 innings pitched, a comical total of just 40 hits allowed, with only 11 walks, and 146 strikeouts. Sicko stuff. Then his shoulder fell off. deGrom missed over a year, came back and made 11 starts in 2022. All of that as a New York Met. The Rangers then crossed their fingers and gave him a five-year 185-million dollar free agent contract. DeGrom lasted six starts in 2023 before needing his second Tommy John surgery. The Rangers of course went on to win the World Series without him. deGrom returned to throw 10 innings late last season and looked good. With everyone around the Rangers holding their breath, deGrom has not missed a start this season. While not striking out batters near his rate in the past, deGrom has been fabulous. He’ll take the mound against the Astros sporting a 9-2 record (for a losing team) and 2.29 ERA. deGrom's career ERA is 2.50. He is 37 years old.
Options dwindling
All you can ask of players is that they prepare well, be mentally focused, and play their best. There is only so much juice to be squeezed from lemons. Zack Short, Cooper Hummel, and Taylor Trammell each played every inning of the Guardians series. They are 30, 30, and 27 years old respectively. Short has the highest career big league batting average of the three. That average is .169. Hummel sits at .167, Trammell at .165. Short went zero for 11 with seven strikeouts. Hummel went one for eleven and struck out in his last six at bats. Trammell actually had a good series going three for eleven including a three-run homer and a double. Bigger picture, manager Joe Espada is filling out a lineup card with one hand tied behind his back.
Espada’s task got no easier with the latest seemingly Astros-nomically inept medical work. It is mind-blowingly ridiculous that Jake Meyers further damaged a calf muscle while taking the field Wednesday night, just three days after he left a game with that calf ailing him. Organizationally the Astros look like a clown show on this (pretty sure Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez would co-sign). At least the All-Star break arriving after play Sunday will cover four days of Meyers’s absence, which is a good bet to extend beyond that, maybe well beyond that. That absence will be sorely felt. Beyond his elite patrol work in center field, Meyers’s offense this season made the leap from atrocious to well above average. About to come off the injured list, Chas McCormick gets one last chance to revive his Astros’ career. Decent prospect Jacob Melton is a center fielder who remains out injured. Kenedy Corona was called up this week when Christian Walker went on paternity leave. Corona also plays center field but is not a meaningful prospect. If Meyers is to miss months not weeks, general manager Dana Brown almost has to pursue an outfielder via trade.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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