The college basketball report
NCAA basketball: Longhorns are on a roll but face toughest test
Nov 20, 2018, 8:29 am
Last week (1-0): W- Citadel 97-69
This week: Thursday vs. North Carolina
Texas struggled with the deep shot early in their matchup with The Citadel, going just 2-20 from distance in the 1st half. That all changed at halftime, and the Horns shot 10-22 from 3 in the 2nd half en route to a blowout win against the Bulldogs. Jase Febres led the charge, going 4-5 from behind the arc. Dylan Osetkowski and Kerwin Roach II led the Horns in scoring, with 15 a piece. Roach became the 37th Longhorn in program history to go over the 1,000 point mark. Texas has started well, but against poor competition. 3-point shooting has been a concern, and despite the strong 2nd half it was still a problem in this game. Turnovers have also troubled Texas, but they only gave it away 7 times in the game against The Citadel. Texas will get their biggest test of the young season on Thanksgiving day, when they take on seventh ranked North Carolina in Las Vegas.
Last week (0-2): L- @ Gonzaga 94-71, L- Minnesota 69-64
This week: Tuesday vs. Washington, Friday vs. South Alabama
Texas A&M traveled to the Pacific Northwest to take on Gonzaga and play a game in Vancouver against Minnesota, and flew home with a bitter taste in their mouth. Gonzaga dominated from tip to buzzer, leading in the second half by as many as 34 points. The Aggies didn’t have an answer for the depth or shooting of Gonzaga, as the Bulldogs had five players in double digit scoring. Gonzaga also blocked 10 shots and had 8 steals in the game. The Aggies were led by Sauvion Flagg’s 18 points in the loss. The Aggies started slow against Minnesota, but fought back in the second half to make it a ball game, but the Gophers held on late and sent A&M to its third straight loss. The Aggies were 3-15 from 3-point range. Fouls also plagued the Ags, as the Gophers took 32 free throw attempts in the game. Brandon Mahan led the Aggies with 17 points in the loss. The Aggies have games with Washington and South Alabama this week.
Last week (2-0): W- Rice 79-68, W- Northwestern State 82-55
This week: Saturday @ BYU
Armoni Brooks continued his impressive start to the season, leading the Cougars with 20 points in a 79-68 win over the Rice Owls. It was a balanced attack for Houston, who had four players over 15 points in the game. The Cougars shot 45% from distance, and were +11 in points from the free throw line. Houston protected the ball well, only turning the ball over seven times in the game. They had no problems with Northwestern State either, taking an 82-55 win on Monday night. Brooks led the charge again offensively with 15 points, but 5 Cougars finished in double figures. The Cougars were +10 in the turnover battle. Houston has just one game this week, Saturday against BYU.
Last week (1-1): L- @ Houston 79-68, W- Northwestern State 102-74
This week: Wednesday @ BYU, Sunday @ Wichita State
Rice split their games this week, starting with a loss to cross-town rival Houston by a score of 79-68. Ako Adams did his part to keep the game close, scoring a team-high 19 points, including five 3-pointers and adding 5 assists. The Owls then got a dominant win over the Northwestern State Demons, 102-74. The Owls only led by four points at the half, but blew the game open in the second half. Freshman Quentin Miller-Brown was the standout for the Owls, scoring 21 points on 10 of 11 shooting, adding in 8 rebounds and 3 blocks. Fellow freshman Drew Peterson had 18 points, all coming from behind the arc. The 102 points was by far a season high for Rice. The Owls have road trips to BYU and Wichita coming up this week.
Last week (1-0): W- Nicholls State 81-54
This week: Friday vs. Ole Miss
Baylor cruised to an 81-54 win over Nicholls State in their only game this week. Freshman Matthew Mayer led the Bears with 18 points, and Yale transfer Makai Mason had 11 in his first game for Baylor. Baylor had five players in double digits for the game. The Bears dominated on the defensive end, holding the Colonels to just 32% from the field. Baylor gets Ole Miss at a neutral site in Florida on Friday.
Last week (1-0): W- Fresno State 77-69
This week: Tuesday vs. Lipscomb
TCU used a balanced attack to take a 77-69 win over Fresno State. All five starters hit double digits in scoring, led by Desmond Bane’s 23 points. Senior point guard Alex Robinson had 14 assists to go with his 13 points. The Frogs held Fresno to 38% shooting on the night. TCU gets a matchup with the 3-1 Lipscomb Bisons this week.
Last week: W- Southeastern Louisiana 59-40, W- USC 78-63
This week: Saturday vs. Northern Colorado.
Texas Tech continued its hot start, rolling to a 59-40 win over Southeastern Louisiana. Jarrett Culver led the Raiders with 21 points, but it was the Red Raider defense that stole the show. Tech held SE Louisiana to 26% from the field and 17% from 3-point distance. Tech also led in points off turnovers, 18-4. Texas Tech started slow against USC, trailing by 9 at the half, but dominated the 2nd half on their way to a 78-63 win. Culver and senior forward Tariq Owens had 18 a piece to lead the Red Raiders in scoring. The Raiders hit 40% from distance and had 10 steals on the night. The Raiders get Northern Colorado on Saturday.
Last week (1-1): W- Western Carolina 98-65, L- Lipscomb 79-73
This week: Tuesday vs. Bradley
SMU rode the hot hand of Jamal McMurray in their 98-65 blowout win over Western Carolina. McMurray was unstoppable, hitting 14 of 17 from the field. The Mustangs hit 47% from 3 and forced 23 turnovers by the Catamounts. SMU had a 7-point halftime lead against Lipscomb, but couldn’t hold on and dropped their 2nd game of the season, 79-73. McMurray was 3-19 from the field and 2-10 from distance. The shaky start to the season is a stark contrast to last season, when SMU had early season wins over Arizona and USC. The Ponies have just one game this week, Tuesday against Bradley.
Last week (2-0): W- Memphis 85-76, W- Louisiana Tech 74-67
This week: Thursday vs. Charleston
LSU continues to play inspired basketball to start the season. They took a hard-fought win over Memphis 85-76. Junior Skylar Mays led the Tigers with 19 points in the win. LSU’s 3 fresmen starters all scored 11 points. Tremont Waters struggled from the field, shooting just 3-11, but the Tigers picked up the slack. LSU shot 54% as a team in the game. It wouldn’t be easy against Louisiana Tech either, but the Tigers again found a way, taking a 74-67 win. Freshman Ja’Vante Smart scored 16, including a go-ahead 3-pointer late in the 2nd half. LSU shot only 20% from long range in the game. The Tigers have just one game next week, against Charleston on Thanksgiving Day.
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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