The Pallilog
NFL Draft gives us some sports, and the SEC dominates again
Apr 24, 2020, 6:57 am
The Pallilog
We're into week seven of no meaningful athletic competition, so the arrival of the NFL Draft Thursday night was most welcome. Interest in it around here wasn't great given the Texans had no first round pick, but the first round is always a big deal and this year provided a few hours of hope toward having sporting events we lust to watch being back by September at the latest. I'd have much preferred NBA and NHL playoff games to watch.
The Texans have the eighth pick of the second round and Bill O'Brien could go a number of directions. Emperor O taking a guard would be justifiable, likewise wide receiver with Will Fuller and Kenny Stills both free agents after the 2020 season, but the defense is in need of a bigger boost. A defensive tackle, edge rusher, corner, or safety who fills draft cliché number one (best player available) should be able to make some impact as a rookie. Alabama safety Xavier McKinney might be the guy most expected to go in the first round who did not. Texas A&M defensive tackle Justin Madubuike would make sense if on the board for the Texans' pick at number 40.
For those who question whether the Southeastern Conference is overrated, stop. Nine of the first 15 selections were SEC guys. In all an amazing 15 of the 32 first round picks were SEC guys. LSU led the way with five. That's five more than the University of Texas which failed to produce a first rounder for the fifth year in a row. Going into Friday night UT produced just one second rounder in the last eight drafts.
In leading LSU to the National Championship against the toughest schedule any school has never negotiated its way through undefeated, Joe Burrow had the greatest passing season in the history of college football. 60 touchdown passes against just six interceptions. Still, Burrow is not a "can't miss" prospect the way John Elway, Troy Aikman and Andrew Luck were as they entered the NFL. If Burrow goes on to greatness, the four guys taken behind him will have to collectively be great if they are to match the collective careers of the top five picks in the 1989 Draft. The second pick in '89 was epic steroid-created bust Tony Mandarich. But picks one, three, four and, five? All Hall of Famers. Aikman went first to the Cowboys, Barry Sanders third to the Lions, Derrick Thomas fourth to the Chiefs, and Deion Sanders fifth to the Falcons.
Wonder what Aaron Rodgers was thinking as he called it a night. The Green Bay Packers took an offensive player in the first round for the first time since 2011. Rather than help for Rodgers, the Pack tabbed his prospective successor in quarterback Jordan Love out of Utah State.
So weak of Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred to release his Red Sox investigation and punishment the day before the NFL Draft. The timing was not a coincidence. It was clearly designed to minimize coverage and blowback. Astropologists shouldn't go overboard in outrage at the relative wrist slap given the Bosox. At no point was there indication that the Red Sox' scheme was as extensive as the Astros' cheating. But for Manfred to completely exonerate Alex Cora of anything during his Boston tenure strains credulity to amazing levels.
Russell Westbrook told an amusing story during an appearance on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon this week. When he was 10 or 11 Westbrook attended a Michael Jordan basketball camp in Santa Barbara not too far from Westbrook's California home. As the last day of camp was winding down, each team was allotted time to get an autograph from and picture with MJ. When Westbrook's team's turn came, he blew it off, to keep playing whatever game he was in at the time. When Russ got home his parents asked "Did you get your time with Michael?" Mom and Dad Westbrook had bought a basketball that he could get signed. Russ explained that he didn't because he'd kept playing instead. Then he cried over the opportunity lost. At least somewhat ironically two decades later, Westbrook gets Jordan autographs, on checks! He is an endorser of Nike's Jordan Brand.
1. Playing them is one thing, but sitting through whole video baseball or basketball games being played? Can't do it. 2. Don't have to be desperate for sports content to find the Jordan/Bulls "The Last Dance" documentary riveting. 3. Best last dance songs: Bronze-Last Dance, Dua Lipa Silver-Save The Last Dance For Me, The Drifters Gold-Last Dance, Donna Summer. Of course.
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Pharrell Williams is ringing in my ears. Why? Because I’m happy of course (2013 music reference)! Less than one week to spring training opening for the Astros in West Palm Beach. The pitchers and catchers are required to report a few days before the rest. A number of guys among the rest will arrive early, but let’s focus on some pitcher/catcher issues. Catchers first.
We know Yainer Diaz is the primary starter, with Victor Caratini a solid complement in the final year of his two-year contract. Diaz had a fine season overall in his first as the primary backstop, but he has a couple of clear areas that need improvement if stardom is to be on his horizon. His pitch-framing metrics were poor. Maybe it’s as simple as more experience under the belt improving them. At the plate, Yainer brings major value for what he does when doing it as a catcher. Still, to be a bonafide great offensive catcher, Diaz needs to rediscover more of the home run power he displayed as a rookie. In 2023 Diaz smashed 23 home runs in 355 at bats. In 2024 he had 230 more at bats, and hit seven fewer home runs. He had a 30-game midseason homer drought (immediately after going deep in four consecutive games), and then went the final 31 games of the season (29 plus the two playoff losses) without clearing a fence. Diaz did bat .309 over those 61 games so it’s not as if he turned into Martin Maldonado, but you want more sock from a guy batting fourth or fifth in the lineup. Diaz’s slugging percentage tumbled from .531 to .448. Among catchers overall, 16 homers and the .766 OPS he posted in 2024 is fine, but that is not a great offensive player overall. The other area where Yainer needs a step up is plate discipline. With his 585 at bats last year he walked only a pitiful 24 times. As a result, despite his excellent .299 batting average Diaz’s on-base percentage was just .325. Jon Singleton posted a .321 OBP while batting .234.
Caratini is a solid pro whose switch-hitting adds flexibility. He was sensational as a pinch-hitter albeit in just 19 at bats (8-19, .421). Manager Joe Espada has some playing time juggling to do. Free agent signee Christian Walker will play almost every day at first base when healthy. Diaz or Caratini getting starts there will be very limited. Yordan Alvarez targeted for fewer starts in left field gobbles up more designated hitter games. However Jose Altuve winds up splitting his defensive time between second base and left field, closing in on his 35th birthday in May, using him at DH about once per week would make sense.
On the mound, barring injury the starting rotation is set. Off of their 2024 performances Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco are as solid a one-two-three punch as there is in the American League. Only unanimously-voted American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal posted a better qualifying earned run average (2.39) than Blanco’s 2.80 and Valdez’s 2.91. After tweaking his arsenal following an atrocious opening seven-start stretch to his season, Brown posted a 2.46 ERA the rest of the way. Framber may have a couple hundred million dollars riding on his 2025 performance as barring an extension he heads toward free agency. Will Brown and Blanco’s performance hold up after each set professional career highs in innings pitched? The fourth rotation spot initially goes to Spencer Arrighetti, who showed much promise pitching to a 3.18 ERA after the All-Star break. Kyle Tucker trade acquisition Hayden Wesneski has first dibs on the fifth spot. The Cy-Fair high school grad and Sam Houston State product flashes some solid stuff, but absolutely must do a better job keeping his pitches in the ballpark. In 190 big league innings pitched Wesneski has been hammered for 35 home runs. In 2024 he showed so improvement in that area yielding 12 dingers in 67 2/3 innings.
The two sure things so far as bullpen roles are concerned are Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. Hader’s seasons in one word from 2020-2024: Meh, stupendous, atrocious, phenomenal, mediocre. The odd years have been the fabulous ones. Abreu moves up the totem pole with the salary dump (eight and a half of 14 million anyway) trade of Ryan Pressly. After Hader and Abreu most tickets are punched. Tayler Scott, Kaleb Ort, Forrest Whitley, and Bryan King all figure to have spots. The 32-year-old Scott faded over the last two months after having blown away anything he’d done previously in MLB. The 33-year-old Ort also way outpitched his prior big league resume. Former mega-prospect Whitley is out of minor league options, and opportunity knocks. King appears the only definitely makes the club lefty reliever.
Spring training doors open next week. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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