Coffee's for Closers...and Rings are for Hall of Fame Quarterbacks

NFL Super teams: You need one position - quarterback - to have a legitimate chance

NFL Super teams: You need one position - quarterback - to have a legitimate chance
David Silverman, Patriots team website

"There's only a few NBA teams that can actually win a title."

The NBA was buzzing yesterday as news came down that Anthony Davis wanted out of New Orleans. Odds-makers named the Los Angeles Lakers as the favorite to trade for his services.

The mention of pairing a superstar of "The Brow's" caliber with LeBron James, immediately had the masses out to air their usual grievance with "The King." The statement in which I opened the article with, was one of the most repeated I saw all of yesterday.

While the statement is true, I find the timing odd. We are literally days away from Tom Brady playing in his ninth Super Bowl out of the last 18 NFL seasons. When you look at all of the participants in the big game since Brady's first Super Bowl appearance, you'll notice a trend of superstar quarterbacks.

The Super Bowl has become a preconceived notion for anyone watching the game for the last 20 years. For two decades, Brady and Bill Belichick have been in the Super Bowl, on average, every other year. Yet, it's not the moans of the NFL fans that roar the loudest with their outcry of select super powers in their field.

At least in the NBA, superstars like LeBron James have moved around to different markets and brought championships to fans of multiple teams. James won titles in Cleveland and Miami. If "LeBrow" comes to existence then James would have brought the storied Lakers franchise back to life for the first time since the retirement of Kobe Bryant. Signal callers with Hall of Fame potential don't get shipped off in the NFL, unless there's a health concern and the team already has Plan B in place. Peyton Manning & Drew Brees both ended up in a second market but the moves came after injuries. Also, the Chargers had already drafted Philip Rivers and the Colts had the No. 1 pick in the draft to use on Andrew Luck.

Since that first Brady Super Bowl, NFL fans in markets without a future Hall of Fame quarterback had next to zero chance of making the Super Bowl and if you were a fan of an AFC team, then Brady had already secured that spot every other year. What makes it worse for NFL fans is the fact that the team that will play in their ninth Super Bowl in the last 18 years, received their boost from seven years of spying on opponents via video. Roger Goodell destroyed the evidence after viewing it and handed down a penalty that would not setback the franchise.

The Pats were slapped on the wrist with a fine for the coach of $500,000, a fine for the team in the amount of $250,000 and they were forced to forfeit a first round draft pick. During the time the Patriots were busted for cheating, they won their first three Super Bowls in franchise history. After the Patriots were caught, they went 8 years before winning another Super Bowl. They have since gone to four out of the last five.

The New England Patriots were valued at $3.7 billion in 2018. In the United States, only the Dallas Cowboys and New York Yankees are more valuable sports franchises. That statement won't surprise anyone today, but it would have shocked everyone if you would have predicted their skyrocketing value before their scandal(s).

A franchise that was 0-2 lifetime in the Super Bowl after losses to the famous Chicago Bears and a gunslinger named Brett Favre, went on to do something no one ever thought possible. They did it with a coach that struggled previously in Cleveland and a sixth-round quarterback prospect drafted 199th overall.

I still find it odd that in the era of "put an asterisk on the Rams win vs New Orleans"..."put an asterisk of Barry Bonds' home runs"..."put an asterisk on LeBron's super teams"...that the Patriots reign for the last two decades isn't viewed more as a stain on America's number one sport. More so, how the cries against the dearth of championship caliber teams in a league isn't pointed more directly at the NFL and specifically the New England Patriots.

Super Bowl Participants since 2002:

2002

New England Patriots - 20 (Tom Brady)

St Louis Rams - 17 (Kurt Warner)

2003

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 48 (Brad Johnson)

Oakland Raiders - 21 (Rich Gannon)

2004

New England Patriots - 32 (Tom Brady)

Carolina Panthers - 29 (Jake Delhomme)

2005

New England Patriots - 24 (Tom Brady)

Philadelphia Eagles - 21 (Donovan McNabb)

2006

Pittsburgh Steelers - 21 (Ben Roethlisberger)

Seattle Seahawks - 10 (Matt Hasselbeck)

2007

Indianapolis Colts - 29 (Peyton Manning)

Chicago Bears - 17 (Rex Grossman)

2008

New York Giants - 17 (Eli Manning)

New England Patriots - 14 (Tom Brady)

2009

Pittsburgh Steelers - 27 (Ben Roethlisberger)

Arizona Cardinals - 23 (Kurt Warner)

2010

New Orleans Saints - 31 (Drew Brees)

Indianapolis Colts - 17 (Peyton Manning)

2011

Green Bay Packers - 31 (Aaron Rodgers)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 25 (Ben Roethlisberger)

2012

New York Giants - 21 (Eli Manning)

New England Patriots - 17 (Tom Brady)

2013

Baltimore Ravens - 34 (Joe Flacco)

San Francisco 49ers - 31 (Colin Kaepernick)

2014

Seattle Seahawks - 43 (Russell Wilson)

Denver Broncos - 8 (Peyton Manning)

2015

New England Patriots - 28 (Tom Brady)

Seattle Seahawks - 24 (Russell Wilson)

2016

Denver Broncos - 24 (Peyton Manning)

Carolina Panthers - 10 (Cam Newton)

2017

New England Patriots - 34 (Tom Brady)

Atlanta Falcons - 28 (Matt Ryan)

2018

Philadelphia Eagles - 41 (Nick Foles)

New England Patriots - 33 (Tom Brady)

2019

New England Patriots - (Tom Brady)

Los Angeles Rams - (Jared Goff)


AFC QB - Super Bowl Appearances & Record (Since 2002)

Tom Brady 9 games (5-3)

Peyton Manning 4 games (2-2)

Ben Roethlisberger 3 games (2-1)

Joe Flacco 1 game (1-0)

Rich Gannon 1 game (0-1)

NFC QB - Super Bowl Appearances & Record (Since 2002)

Eli Manning 2 games (2-0)

Russell Wilson 2 games (1-1)

Kurt Warner 2 games (0-2)

Drew Brees 1 game (1-0)

Aaron Rodgers 1 game (1-0)

Brad Johnson 1 game (1-0)

Nick Foles 1 game (1-0)

Cam Newton 1 game (0-1)

Matt Ryan 1 game (0-1)

Colin Kaepernick 1 game (0-1)

Donovan McNabb 1 game (0-1)

Jake Delhomme 1 game (0-1)

Rex Grossman 1 game (0-1)

Jared Goff 1 game (0-0)

As you can tell from above, if you have been a fan of an NFL team for the last two decades and didn't have a future Hall of Fame quarterback, then you've just been watching with zero expectation to reach the ultimate prize.

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger have accounted for every AFC Super Bowl win in the last 17 years with the one exception being Joe Flacco, who had Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata on the defensive side of the ball that season.

On the NFC side, Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have amassed four of the seven titles won. Russell Wilson, Brad Johnson and Nick Foles make up the other three Super Bowl wins for the NFC since 2002. Wilson is still young; he could move over to the Hall of Fame side of this list in the future but it's way too early as of now.

Recap: If you are a fan of an NFL team without a future Hall of Famer playing quarterback, there is almost no reason for you to believe that your team has Super Bowl aspirations.

Only Nick Foles, Joe Flacco and Brad Johnson have won a Super Bowl in the last 18 years as the starting quarterback and not have a Hall of Fame resume (Wilson - book still being written).

For the majority of my adult life, the Super Bowl has been a foregone conclusion for AFC fans. If an AFC team wanted to win the Super Bowl from 2002-2019, there were four opportunities to get the right guy over the last 20+ years:

The Four Opportunities for AFC Teams

  • 1998 - Draft Peyton Manning #1 overall
  • 2000 - Draft Tom Brady
  • 2004 - Draft Ben Roethlisberger
  • 2012 - Sign Peyton Manning in free agency

Joe Flacco is the one exception to the rule in the last 18 years, as long as you have Ray, Ed, Ngata and Suggs on the defensive side.

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Get your popcorn ready! Composite image by Brandon Strange.

Filed the column early this week with Astros’ baseball that counts arriving Thursday! Ideally that arrival occurs with Minute Maid Park’s roof open under sunny skies with temperature in the mid-70s and only moderate humidity (that’s the forecast).

As they ready for their season-opening four game series, the Astros and Yankees enter 2024 with streaks on the line. The Astros take aim at an eighth consecutive American League Championship Series appearance while obviously aiming ultimately higher than that. The Yankees are a good bet to fail to make the World Series for the 15th consecutive season, which would be a new Yankees’ record! At its origin in 1903 the franchise was known as the New York Highlanders. The name became the Yankees in 1913, with the first franchise World Series appearance coming in 1921. So that was 18 years of play without winning a pennant. Maybe that gives the Yanks something to shoot for in 2027.

On the more immediate horizon, the Astros and Yankees both start the season with question marks throughout their starting rotations. It’s just that the Astros do so coming off their seventh straight ALCS appearance while the Yankees are coming off having missed the postseason entirely for the first time in seven years. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole can spend time Thursday chit-chatting about their days as Astro teammates because they won’t be pitching against one another. Cole’s absence hurts the Yankees more than Verlander’s should the Astros. Cole was the unanimously voted AL Cy Young Award winner last season, and at eight years younger than Verlander the workload he was expected to carry is greater. Cole is gone for at least the first two months of the season, the Astros would be pleased if Verlander misses less than one month.

Whoever does the pitching, the guy on the mound for the Astros has the benefit of a clearly better lineup supporting him. The Yankees could have the best two-man combo in the game with Aaron Judge batting second ahead of offseason acquisition Juan Soto. Two men do not a Murderers’ Row make. Gleyber Torres is the only other guy in the Yankees’ projected regular batting order who was better than mediocre last season, several guys were lousy. The Astros have six guys in their lineup (Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, and Yainer Diaz) who were better in the batter’s box than was Torres last season. The Yanks have hopes for a healthy and huge bounce back season from the brittle and 34-years-old Giancarlo Stanton. Good luck with that.

Man with a plan

We have to see how things play out over the season of course, but it is exciting to see new manager Joe Espada’s progressive outlook on a number of things. Acknowledging that Astros’ baserunning has too often been deficient, Espada made improving it a spring training priority. The same with Astros’ pitchers doing a better job of holding opposing base runners at first with base stealing having occurred with the highest success rate in MLB history last season. Tweaking the lineup to bat Alvarez second behind Altuve is a strong choice. Having your two best offensive forces come to the plate most frequently is inherently smart.

Opting to bat Tucker third ahead of Bregman rather than the other way around also seems wise business. Let’s offer one specific circumstance. An opposing pitcher manages to retire both Altuve and Alvarez. Tucker walking or singling is much more capable of stealing second base and then scoring on a Bregman single than the inverse. Or scoring from first on a ball hit to the corner or a shallow gap. I suggest in a similar vein that is why the much older and much slower Jose Abreu should bat lower in the lineup than Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz. Though Espada giving Abreu veteran deference to get off to a better season than Abreu’s largely lousy 2023 is ok. To a point.

Eye on the prize

The ceiling for the 2024 Astros is clear. Winning a third World Series in eight years is viably in play. The floor is high. Barring an utter collapse of the starting rotation and/or a calamitous toll of injuries within the offensive core there is no way this is only a .500-ish ballclub. That does not mean the Astros are a surefire postseason team. The Rangers may again have a better offense. The Mariners definitely begin the season with a better starting rotation. In the end, other than when it impacts team decision-making, prognostication doesn’t matter. But these two words definitely matter: PLAY BALL!

To welcome the new season we’ll do a live YouTube Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast about 30 minutes after the final out is recorded in Thursday’s opener.

Our second season of Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is underway. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. On our regular schedule the first post goes up Monday afternoon. You can get the video version (first part released Monday, second part Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available at initial release Monday via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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