Aaron Rodgers and the Packers should have an advantage. Photo credit: Andy Lyons
Week 16 brought more meaningful football. It's amazing to see that there are teams out there that looked to be dead in the water, but still have a shot at the playoffs. Here are my observations:
The Good
-The Packers are going to be a tough out in the playoffs, and it's not for the reason most think. Sure Aaron Rodgers is a perennial All Pro quarterback, but that defense is stout. Between Za'Darious Smith, Preston Smith, Jaire Alexander, and others, that defense is the real deal. If they get homefield advantage, it'll be tough to go to the Frozen Tundra in January and win.
-The Cardinals may be 5-9-1 after their improbable 27-13 win over the Seahawks, but there are several bright spots. Outside linebacker Chandler Jones sacked Russell Wilson four times to bring his league leading total to 19. Running back Kenyan Drake (acquired in a midseason trade from the Dolphins) has proven to be one of the keys to their offense with another near 200 yard multi-touchdown performance. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is the next in line to prove great athletes playing quarterback can work at the NFL level.
-Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 42 years old, has played 20 seasons in the NFL, and is firmly in the G.O.A.T. conversation at the quarterback position. Despite his status and all the accolades, he still ran out on a reverse and threw a block. Not a typical quarterback flailing sissy block, but a hit'em low take out the knees type block. Always good to see the fire of guys like that on those plays.
The Bad
-Not often do I say winning is a bad thing, but in the case of the Giants: WHAT THE HELL ARE Y'ALL DOING?!? Why would you win a game against a division rival that'll be picking ahead of you now in the draft? They went from the driver's seat for the #2 overall pick to #5. If Ohio State defensive end Chase Young declares, which I fully expect him to, he would've filled a huge need for the Giants. Now the Skins may get him at #2. That is if the Bengals don't take him #1.
-With two interceptions next week against the Falcons, Bucs' quarterback Jameis Winston will be the inaugural member of the 30/30 club: 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. That's the most awesomely terrible stat line I've seen in quite some time. Not only does a quarterback have to play and start enough games, but he has to stay in games and continue to fling it. He's also 92 yards away from 5,000 on the season. I fully expect him to achieve both, as well as be back in Tampa next year as the starter.
-The Browns "clinched" another losing record with their 31-15 loss to the Ravens. They came into the season as the sexy pick because of their offseason player acquisitions. Acquiring talent doesn't equate to wins. Head coach Freddie Kitchens may be on his way out after one season; so may Odell Beckham Jr is you believe the rumors. Baker Mayfield has seemingly regressed and taken this franchise's chances at emerging from the doldrums with him.
The Ugly
-The NFC East Trash Bowl took place as the Eagles bested the Cowboys 17-9. They are now 8-7 and in control of winning the division and the #4 seed in the heavy NFC. Whoever wins this division will be the worst team in the NFC playoff bracket considering all the others will have at least 10 or more wins and have been far more competitively consistent all year. Salt in the wound: Eagles' tight end Zach Ertz fractured a rib in the win and they're already down several pass catchers.
-The Panthers are now 5-10 after suffering their seventh straight loss in a 38-6 thrashing at the hands of the Colts. Panthers' defensive tackle Vernon Butler was ejected for throwing a punch and gave Colts' fans the finger as he left the field. Their tight end Greg Olsen then tore into how poorly they've been playing in a locker room media scrum postgame. All of this and they have an MVP candidate in Christian McCaffrey aka "Dairy Sanders." (Shot out to Gino McGee in Bias Sports Talk FB sports page for the nickname.)
-MLB free agent pitcher Rich Hill and his wife were arrested after an incident at Gillette Stadium before the Patriots game. Hill's wife apparently tried to enter the stadium with an unapproved bag, was denied and told to leave. When she refused, police arrested her. When Hill tried to prevent her from being put in the car, he too was arrested. Not a good look for a guy who's spent 14 years in MLB. They were also fined $500 each.
Week 17 is setting up to be the big finale of the season the NFL envisioned when they decided to change the schedule to make division games the last games of the season. The flex scheduling also allows the league to place games in similar time slots that involve teams vying for playoff seeding. It'll end in a Sunday Night Football matchup that pits the 49ers against the Seahawks for the NFC West crown and a first round bye on the line. The loser gets to face the NFC East winner on the road. I'm fired up for next week already! Aren't you?
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How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
Apr 17, 2025, 5:21 pm
Major League Baseball’s regular season is 162 games long. You can think of 18 games as the first inning of the season, 18 times nine equaling 162. While the Astros 8-10 record is not good, it’s far from disastrous. Think of it as them being behind 1-0 after the first inning. It is pretty remarkable that they have yet to win consecutive games. Even during last year’s 7-19 stink bomb of a start the Astros twice managed to win two in a row.
The Astros’ offensive woes are plentiful. Oddly enough as impotent as they’ve been, the Astros have yet to be shutout. But in half their games they have scored exactly one or two runs. Basically, most of them stink thus far. Exemptions go to Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, but it’s not like either of them has been outstanding. It’s still early enough that one big series can dramatically alter the numbers, but the Astros badly need Yordan Alvarez to pick up his production. Yordan enters the weekend batting just .224 with a .695 OPS and just four extra base hits. Yainer rhymes with minor. As in minor leagues, where Diaz belongs at his current level of performance. That is not saying Diaz should be sent down, just that any random AAA catcher called up couldn’t have done much worse to this point. Diaz isn’t hitting Altuve’s weight, a woeful .130 with seven hits in 57 at bats. Diaz simply remains too undisciplined at the plate swinging at too many balls. He’s drawn three walks. And now to Christian Walker, who thus far has delivered return on investment for his three year 60 million dollar contract about as strong as the stock market’s performance in Tariff Time. Walker’s .154 batting average and .482 OPS are very Astro Jose Abreu-like. Walker’s23 strikeouts in 65 at bats jump off the page. He has often looked befuddled in the batter's box. Walker is definitely pressing and frustrated, wanting to perform better for his new team. Jeremy Pena goes into the weekend batting .215 and has one hit in 13 at bats with runners in scoring position. Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, and Chas McCormick all have weak stat lines, with little reason to expect quality offensive output from any of them. Cam Smith is at .200 with a yucky .591 OPS but he’s obviously a young stud work in progress thrown into the deep end of the pool.
All batting orders are top-heavy, the Astros’ on paper more so than many. As I set forth on one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week, the first inning should be a team’s best offensive inning. It’s the only frame in which a team gets to dictate who comes up from the start with the batters lined up just as the manager slots them. Add to that, the first inning is a good time to get to a starting pitcher before he settles in. The Astros have scored a pitiful three first inning runs in 18 games, and in two of the games they pushed one across in the first, it turned out to be the only Astro run of the game. Improvement needs to come internally from the big league roster. It’s not as if the Astros have a meaningful prospect at AAA Sugar Land who looks ready to help. Entering play Thursday the Space Cowboys’ team average was .186. Second base hopeful Brice Matthews is nowhere close, batting .180 and striking out left and right. Outfielder Jacob Melton opened three for 17 following the back injury-delayed start to his season.
As exasperating and boring as the offense has been for so many, grading needs to occur on a curve. So, while the Astros’ team batting average is a joke at .216, know that at close of business Wednesday the entire American League was batting just .232. The American League West-leading Texas Rangers scored eight fewer runs over their first 18 games than did the Astros, though that is skewed by the Astros’ one 14-run outburst against the Angels.
Familiar faces return
This weekend the Astros play host to the San Diego Padres at Daikin Park. The Friars are off to a fabulous start at 15-4. The Padres being here creates a mini reunion as both Martin Maldonado and Yuli Gurriel are on their roster. In a telling fact, Maldonado would have the third-highest batting average on the Astros if on the team with his current numbers. Maldonado is hitting .250 with seven hits in 28 at bats. The last season he finished above .200 was 2020. The only season in his career Maldonado topped .234 was his rookie season with a .266 mark in 2012.
Gurriel was last good in 2021 when he won the American League batting title at .319. He fell off a cliff from there, though perked up to have a fine postseason in the Astros’ 2022 run to World Series title number two. “La Pina” is batting .115 with just three hits in 26 at bats. Gurriel may be released soon, and approaching his 41st birthday June 9, that would probably be the end of the line. Short-timer Astro Jason Heyward is also on the Padres, and batting .190.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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