Gambling recap

NFL Week 16: They are who we thought they were

The Chiefs have turned it on since changing play call duties. Peter Aiken/Getty Images

Week 16 handles the duties of pointing teams in their respective direction of fate. This week a few teams showed us precisely what we thought they were.

Biggest favorites to Cover

Chiefs-11
Who did we think the Chiefs were to begin the season? A team capable of knocking off the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull off a stunning upset, that's what we learned opening night. Also, a unit that would carry that momentum starting the year 5-0 straight up and ATS. After a few injuries and the offense becoming stagnant, the Chiefs regressed drastically going 1-6 ATS in the following seven games. Don't look now, but the Chiefs are rolling and are perfect vs. the spread in the last three contest. The offense seems to have found their rhythm again, and much has to do with Andy Reid giving up the play-calling duties to Matt Nagy. Since making the change, the Chiefs have scored 38,26,30,29.

Patriots -11


After defeating the Steelers the previous week, the destiny was in the Patriots hands going into a divisional clash vs. the Bills.  A tale of two halves, the game was tied at the intermission, but the doors were blown wide open in the closing half. Tom Brady threw a pick-six in the first half to give the Bills a 10-3 lead. This makes it five consecutive games that Brady has turned the ball over, something he hasn't done in 15 years. Just when you consider maybe his age is catching up, he proceeded to score on the next six possessions. In the closing half, Brady was a perfect 9-for-9 with a touchdown leading New England to a blowout win. Who did we think the Patriots were? They are exactly who we thought they were. The team that was always going to get the number one seed in the AFC, therefore, directing the road to the Super Bowl through Foxborough. With Tom Brady under center, New England is 14-3 in the playoffs; Is there an opponent this year worthy of knocking out the Patriots at home in the postseason?

Vikings-9

The Vikings defense was scary last week, exactly what we thought they had been all year. The Vikings have now held opponents to single digits in four of the last six contests and have given up and an average of 11 points a game in the last month. This is nothing new for a squad who ranks 1st overall in weighted defensive DVOA and 11th in turnover +/- differential. Minnesota has now won 10 of their last 11 and is 8-1 ATS in the last nine contests. With a win this week (or a few scenarios),  would put them in a position to not have to travel for over three weeks. Furthermore, if the Eagles were to be upset in the playoffs, they wouldn't have to leave home at all as the Superbowl is being held at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota this year.

From the Cashiers window

Most Bet Teams:
Panthers 85%
Rams 81%
Chiefs 77%
Jags 77%
Chargers 74%

Favorites were 13-3 straight up but only managed to go 8-7-1 ATS. The number sits at 123-103-9 for 2017.
The dominating figure this week went to the under, where wagering on low totals went 13-3.

Play Action Pass went 4-5-1 in week 16 bringing us to 45-33-2 on the year winning at a rate of 57.7%.

Eagles-9 PUSH
Texans+10 LOSS
49ers+4  WIN
Seahawks +3  WIN
Seahawks/Cowboys over 47  LOSS
Browns+7  LOSS
Rams/Titans under 49 LOSS

Teaser 7- point
Chargers+.5/Vikings-2 WIN

10-point teaser
Chiefs PK/ Eagles+1/Patriots -1.5  WIN
Eagles+1/Seahawks-Cowboys over 37/Chiefs PK LOSS

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

Yordan Alvarez provided the offense to back up more stellar pitching by the Astros as they took ALCS game 6 to advance to the 2021 World Series. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

After splitting the first two games of this series in Houston then falling behind in the series 2-1 by dropping the first of three games in Boston, the Astros took over the ALCS in Games 4 and 5, sending them back to their home crowd with a chance to finish things off in Game 6 at Minute Maid Park. After another stellar performance by their pitching staff and more timely hitting, they would accomplish that mission, winning the series and moving on to the 2021 World Series.

Final Score: Astros 5, Red Sox 0

ALCS Series (Best of Seven): Houston wins 4-2

Winning Pitcher: Luis Garcia

Losing Pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi

Houston strikes first to start tightly-contested Game 6

After a scoreless top of the first inning by Boston's offense, the Astros capitalized on a chance to be first to score in the bottom of the frame. Alex Bregman started the two-out rally, reaching base on a single against Nathan Eovaldi for the first hit of the night. Yordan Alvarez followed, delivering his sixth RBI of the series with a double to put Houston on top 1-0.

That did not spark further immediate scoring, as the one-run score held while both starting pitchers provided solid outings for their team. For Eovaldi, he was able to limit Houston to just that single run through four frames. He returned in the bottom of the fifth, facing two batters, allowing a single, and getting a strikeout to end his night.

Garcia impresses in big start

For the home team, they were recipients of another expectation-exceeding performance from one of their young arms. Only anticipated to go a handful of innings, Luis Garcia worked efficiently and effectively against Boston, keeping them scoreless and hitless through five innings. He continued in the sixth, getting two more outs before allowing a two-out triple, ending his night as Phil Maton would enter to strand the tying run. Garcia's final line: 5.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 76 P.

With both teams dipping into their bullpens, the Astros took advantage of Boston's as Yordan Alvarez's dominance went on display once again. He led the inning off with a triple, then scored on a double-play ball to extend Houston's lead to 2-0. Kendall Graveman took over on the mound in the top of the seventh and worked himself into a big moment. He gave up a one-out walk, followed by a single, which put runners on the corners for Boston. He continued to struggle with the zone, falling behind the next batter 3-1, but was able to battle back to get the strikeout paired with a terrific throw by Martin Maldonado to cut down the runner from first trying to steal second, ending the inning and maintaining the two-run advantage.

Astros headed to the World Series

Ryne Stake was Houston's next reliever, and he put Houston three outs away by getting a 1-2-3 eighth. With Ryan Pressly warming, he watched and hoped that his offense could give him some more insurance to work with when he went to the mound in the top of the ninth. His wish would be granted, as after getting two on base, Kyle Tucker would put a major exclamation point on the night's offense, hitting a three-run opposite-field homer to the Crawford Boxes to push the lead to 5-0.

Pressly, now with the five-run lead, came on to try and start the celebration by getting the final three outs. Against the tougher part of Boston's order, he would get a 1-2-3 inning, giving the Astros the American League pennant, which along with those won in 2017 and 2019, puts them back in the World Series for the third time in five years.

Up Next: The Astros will have three days off before The Fall Classic kicks off. While Game 1 will be on Tuesday, October 26th, nothing else has yet been determined as Houston awaits to see which of the Dodgers and Braves will advance out of the NL, which will also dictate if the Astros will host or travel to World Series Game 1.

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome