Gambling recap
NFL Week 16: They are who we thought they were
Jerry Bo
Dec 26, 2017, 10:09 pm
Week 16 handles the duties of pointing teams in their respective direction of fate. This week a few teams showed us precisely what we thought they were.
Chiefs-11
Who did we think the Chiefs were to begin the season? A team capable of knocking off the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull off a stunning upset, that's what we learned opening night. Also, a unit that would carry that momentum starting the year 5-0 straight up and ATS. After a few injuries and the offense becoming stagnant, the Chiefs regressed drastically going 1-6 ATS in the following seven games. Don't look now, but the Chiefs are rolling and are perfect vs. the spread in the last three contest. The offense seems to have found their rhythm again, and much has to do with Andy Reid giving up the play-calling duties to Matt Nagy. Since making the change, the Chiefs have scored 38,26,30,29.
Patriots -11
After defeating the Steelers the previous week, the destiny was in the Patriots hands going into a divisional clash vs. the Bills. A tale of two halves, the game was tied at the intermission, but the doors were blown wide open in the closing half. Tom Brady threw a pick-six in the first half to give the Bills a 10-3 lead. This makes it five consecutive games that Brady has turned the ball over, something he hasn't done in 15 years. Just when you consider maybe his age is catching up, he proceeded to score on the next six possessions. In the closing half, Brady was a perfect 9-for-9 with a touchdown leading New England to a blowout win. Who did we think the Patriots were? They are exactly who we thought they were. The team that was always going to get the number one seed in the AFC, therefore, directing the road to the Super Bowl through Foxborough. With Tom Brady under center, New England is 14-3 in the playoffs; Is there an opponent this year worthy of knocking out the Patriots at home in the postseason?
Vikings-9
The Vikings defense was scary last week, exactly what we thought they had been all year. The Vikings have now held opponents to single digits in four of the last six contests and have given up and an average of 11 points a game in the last month. This is nothing new for a squad who ranks 1st overall in weighted defensive DVOA and 11th in turnover +/- differential. Minnesota has now won 10 of their last 11 and is 8-1 ATS in the last nine contests. With a win this week (or a few scenarios), would put them in a position to not have to travel for over three weeks. Furthermore, if the Eagles were to be upset in the playoffs, they wouldn't have to leave home at all as the Superbowl is being held at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota this year.
Most Bet Teams:
Panthers 85%
Rams 81%
Chiefs 77%
Jags 77%
Chargers 74%
Favorites were 13-3 straight up but only managed to go 8-7-1 ATS. The number sits at 123-103-9 for 2017.
The dominating figure this week went to the under, where wagering on low totals went 13-3.
Play Action Pass went 4-5-1 in week 16 bringing us to 45-33-2 on the year winning at a rate of 57.7%.
Eagles-9 PUSH
Texans+10 LOSS
49ers+4 WIN
Seahawks +3 WIN
Seahawks/Cowboys over 47 LOSS
Browns+7 LOSS
Rams/Titans under 49 LOSS
Teaser 7- point
Chargers+.5/Vikings-2 WIN
10-point teaser
Chiefs PK/ Eagles+1/Patriots -1.5 WIN
Eagles+1/Seahawks-Cowboys over 37/Chiefs PK LOSS
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
The Houston Texans have a big challenge in store as they look to start the season with a win against the Colts this Sunday. When these two teams met in Week 2 last year, the Colts dominated the Texans, despite losing their QB Anthony Richardson to a concussion after the first quarter.
Keeping Richardson contained on Sunday will go a long way in increasing the Texans' chances of coming home with a win. The Texans defense will have their hands full containing the Colts backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Scoring touchdowns with their wide receivers could prove difficult, as the Texans allowed the second-fewest TDs (10) to the receiver position in 2023.
Limiting running back Jonathan Taylor will also be a top priority. While the Texans had an elite defense against the run last season, they struggled with Taylor in Week 18 as he almost rushed for 200 yards.
Houston's D allowed only four carries to running backs in 2023 that went for 20 or more yards. Two of which were to Taylor in the final game of the regular season.
Finally, DeMeco Ryans and company have to find a way to get pressure on the QB. They only had one QB hit and zero sacks on Richardson and Garner Minshew the first time they faced off last year.
On offense, the Texans have two big x-factors to watch for on Sunday. The offensive line that suited up to play the Colts in Week 2 last season is completely different from this year.
The o-line was ravaged with injuries to start the 2023 campaign, so we expect a big jump in productivity in the trenches this year.
Another big addition in 2024 is the presence of running back Joe Mixon. The running game only produced 2 yards per rush in Week 2 against Indy last year, so there's clearly room for improvement.
Be sure to watch the video above for our in-depth preview of Texans-Colts!
And catch Texans on Tap (a Texans podcast) live on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel following every game this season!