Gambling recap

NFL Week 16: They are who we thought they were

The Chiefs have turned it on since changing play call duties. Peter Aiken/Getty Images

Week 16 handles the duties of pointing teams in their respective direction of fate. This week a few teams showed us precisely what we thought they were.

Biggest favorites to Cover

Chiefs-11
Who did we think the Chiefs were to begin the season? A team capable of knocking off the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull off a stunning upset, that's what we learned opening night. Also, a unit that would carry that momentum starting the year 5-0 straight up and ATS. After a few injuries and the offense becoming stagnant, the Chiefs regressed drastically going 1-6 ATS in the following seven games. Don't look now, but the Chiefs are rolling and are perfect vs. the spread in the last three contest. The offense seems to have found their rhythm again, and much has to do with Andy Reid giving up the play-calling duties to Matt Nagy. Since making the change, the Chiefs have scored 38,26,30,29.

Patriots -11


After defeating the Steelers the previous week, the destiny was in the Patriots hands going into a divisional clash vs. the Bills.  A tale of two halves, the game was tied at the intermission, but the doors were blown wide open in the closing half. Tom Brady threw a pick-six in the first half to give the Bills a 10-3 lead. This makes it five consecutive games that Brady has turned the ball over, something he hasn't done in 15 years. Just when you consider maybe his age is catching up, he proceeded to score on the next six possessions. In the closing half, Brady was a perfect 9-for-9 with a touchdown leading New England to a blowout win. Who did we think the Patriots were? They are exactly who we thought they were. The team that was always going to get the number one seed in the AFC, therefore, directing the road to the Super Bowl through Foxborough. With Tom Brady under center, New England is 14-3 in the playoffs; Is there an opponent this year worthy of knocking out the Patriots at home in the postseason?

Vikings-9

The Vikings defense was scary last week, exactly what we thought they had been all year. The Vikings have now held opponents to single digits in four of the last six contests and have given up and an average of 11 points a game in the last month. This is nothing new for a squad who ranks 1st overall in weighted defensive DVOA and 11th in turnover +/- differential. Minnesota has now won 10 of their last 11 and is 8-1 ATS in the last nine contests. With a win this week (or a few scenarios),  would put them in a position to not have to travel for over three weeks. Furthermore, if the Eagles were to be upset in the playoffs, they wouldn't have to leave home at all as the Superbowl is being held at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota this year.

From the Cashiers window

Most Bet Teams:
Panthers 85%
Rams 81%
Chiefs 77%
Jags 77%
Chargers 74%

Favorites were 13-3 straight up but only managed to go 8-7-1 ATS. The number sits at 123-103-9 for 2017.
The dominating figure this week went to the under, where wagering on low totals went 13-3.

Play Action Pass went 4-5-1 in week 16 bringing us to 45-33-2 on the year winning at a rate of 57.7%.

Eagles-9 PUSH
Texans+10 LOSS
49ers+4  WIN
Seahawks +3  WIN
Seahawks/Cowboys over 47  LOSS
Browns+7  LOSS
Rams/Titans under 49 LOSS

Teaser 7- point
Chargers+.5/Vikings-2 WIN

10-point teaser
Chiefs PK/ Eagles+1/Patriots -1.5  WIN
Eagles+1/Seahawks-Cowboys over 37/Chiefs PK LOSS

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

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