Photo via Kansas City Chiefs/Facebook
The last week in the regular season is in the books and it was a good one. We had tons of games with playoff implications. Some were for playoff spots, while others were strictly for seeding purposes. Here are my observations:
The Good
-The Ravens set an NFL record with 3,296 yards rushing this season. The record was originally set by the 1978 Patriots who had 3,165. By averaging 206 yards per game on the ground, the Ravens bullied teams all season. It helps when you have two 1,000-yard rushers. It's extra specail when one of them is your quarterback who was number six in the league with 1,206 yards and didn't play in the final game.
-Panthers' running back Christian McCaffrey became the third running back in history to total 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. Roger Craig was first in 1985, followed by Marshall Faulk in 1999. He also posted the fifth most yards from scrimmage in a season with 2,366. He should end up second behind Lamar Jackson in league MVP voting despite his team's 5-11 record.
-Chiefs rookie wide receiver Mecole Hardman scored the longest touchdown in the league this season with a 104-yard kickoff return in the 3rd quarter. The return put the Chiefs ahead for good as they secured the AFC's #2 seed with their win coupled with a Patriot's loss. This Chiefs team is hitting their stride at the right time. The big play element is back in their offense. Their defense is also picking it up after being considered a major weakness all season.
The Bad
-Buc's quarterback is the inaugural member of the 30/30 club. He finished the season with 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. He also threw for the eighth most passing yards in a season with 5,109. He's the new Brett Favre, the epitome of the term gunslinger.
-Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have well over an 80% winning percentage at home. If you look at home games vs the Dolphins, I imagine that number is just as good if not higher. With a win and a chance at a bye in the playoffs, the Patriots pissed themselves at home and lost to the Dolphins 27-24. The Dolphins gutted their team and only had four wins coming into this game. Very uncharacteristic loss by the Patriots that may prove costly.
-The Cowboys started the year 3-0 and some thought they were a real threat. Fast-forward to the end of the season, and they ended the year 8-8 and missed the playoffs. Head coach Jason Garrett is most likely on his way out because he doesn't have a contract past this season and owner/general manager Jerry Jones has hinted that a change is coming. The salt in the wound here: they still haven't resigned Amari Cooper or Dak Prescott.
The Ugly
-The Browns fired head coach Freddie Kitchens after one year on the job. Kitchens was the offensive coordinator last year when Baker Mayfield had a productive season. He was given the head job after interim coach Gregg Williams wasn't retained. With the offseason Super Bowl title secured, the Browns expected the real one to soon follow. Overmatched to begin with, Kitchens failed miserably and was let go.
-Cardinals' rookie quarterback Kyler Murray injured his right hamstring in last week's win over the Seahawks. When it came to playing the last game of the season against the Rams, Murray said he had to be convinced to play because he was more concerned about injuring it more, but played because he's a competitor?!? Are you freakin serious?!? No competitor has to be convinced to play! A real competitor isn't worried about furthering an injury. They have that competitive spirit and want to rip their opponent's hearts out no matter what the circumstances are! Saying you had to be convinced, but you're a competitor is the biggest hypocrisy I've heard all week!
-The Seahawks played a tough game, but lost to the 49ers 26-21. The loss denied them the NFC West crown and dropped them to the #5 seed. Late in the game, they converted a 4th&10 inside the 2-yard line, but got a delay of game penalty after spiking the ball. Two plays later, the refs failed to call an obvious pass interference. They ended up inches short on a 4th&Goal when Jacob Hollister couldn't get the ball to break the plane of the goal line. That's the definition of what the saying means that football is a game of inches. Shame on the refs for not calling the PI or the booth/New York not ordering a review!
The playoff picture is set. So is the draft order, outside of some tiebreakers or coin flips here and there. Props to the NFL for scheduling divisional games in week 17. Over the last few years since they started this trend, it has made the regular season finale for each team count. We, as football fans, were treated to some great football in the last week of regular season football. Tons of games with meaning left to be played which limited the amount of players sitting and kept things interesting. The flex schedule even allowed for games/teams directly effecting each other to be played at the same time to keep the integrity of the way the games were played intact. While I'm sad that we only have a few weeks of football left now, I'm happy that it should prove to be the most exciting few weeks of football this season given that we have several true Super Bowl contenders in each conference.
As we barrel toward Opening Day which is now less than four weeks away, so far it’s been largely a case of no news is good news at Astros’ spring training. Meaning no major injuries to key players, no controversies brewing. There are numerous question marks that can’t truly be answered until we get into the games that count, such as how will Jose Altuve fare as a left fielder. The most exciting thing to happen over the first week of Grapefruit League games would probably be the two-home run game from top prospect Cam Smith, he of the Kyle Tucker trade. Both came off minor league caliber pitchers, but so what. Smith turned 22 years old last Saturday, the ideal is that he forces his way to the big leagues by the end of this season.
A strong majority of players who go on to greatness in Major League Baseball get to the big leagues before they turn 23. I spoke to this with Astros-specific perspective this week during an episode of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. The ten greatest offensive players in franchise history as measured by Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric are: Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jose Altuve, Lance Berkman, Cesar Cedeno, Jimmy Wynn, Jose Cruz, Alex Bregman, Joe Morgan, and Bob Watson. Eight of those ten debuted in the majors at 22 years old or younger. Cedeno was 19! Morgan and Watson were 20. Wynn and Altuve were 21. Biggio, Bagwell, and Bregman were 22. That leaves Cruz and Berkman as the exceptions. “Cheo” debuted with the Cardinals and didn’t get to the Astros’ organization until he was 27. Berkman arrived at 23. He should have been up sooner but was backlogged in 1998 behind a fabulous outfield of Moises Alou, Carl Everett, and Derek Bell, with youngster Richard Hidalgo as the top reserve, while first base was manned by Bagwell in the heart of his prime.
The point is, special talents should be fast-tracked and/or fast-track themselves to the Major Leagues. There are numerous exceptions (team mistakes, late bloomers), but a very high percentage of eventual big stars get to The Show at a young age. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout entered at 19. Ronald Acuna Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Jose Ramirez did so at 20. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts, and Yordan Alvarez were 21. Not all tear it up immediately the way Yordan did upon his promotion in 2019, but rare tools and talents merit accelerated opportunity. The focus here is on hitters, but this isn’t a bad spot to note that among the four greatest pitchers ever to hurl for the Astros, only Randy Johnson was older than 22 when he started (25 as a notoriously raw and wild Montreal Expo). Nolan Ryan was a 19-year-old New York Met, Roger Clemens a 21-year-old Boston Red Sox, and Justin Verlander a 22-year-old Detroit Tiger.
This is not predicting mega-stardom or a plaque in Cooperstown for Cam Smith, but if the Astros have such a player in what is presently a lousy farm system overall, the odds overwhelmingly favor Smith being that guy. He should be ticketed for double-A Corpus Christi to start this season after having had just 96 at bats in single-A and 19 at AA in the Cubs’ system after being drafted last July. Should Smith excel with the Hooks, it’s not preposterous to see him getting to the Astros over the summer, especially given the shaky state of the big club’s outfield going into the 2025 campaign. Plenty of players have skipped over AAA. While Smith was drafted as a third baseman, unless the Astros grow offensively desperate enough to move Isaac Paredes to second base, Smith’s fastest path to Daikin Park right now might lead to right field. Coming off a relentlessly bad 2024, it’s make-or-break time for Chas McCormick. Chas is making three-point-four million dollars this season and turns 30 in April. If he is not a heckuva lot better this year, there is no way the Astros are bringing him back at an even bigger salary number in 2026.
Jacob Melton is another outfield prospect, but he’s already 24 years old and has yet to show any sort of elite hitting traits in the minors. Melton looms as a cheaper replacement for Jake Meyers in center.
Those who will ultimately be great only have time siphoned from their careers when not brought up as soon as reasonable. Of course there is risk of unfulfilled potential or straight up bust status. If early failure crushes a player, he wasn’t headed for greatness anyway.
On the upswing
Closing aside: a pinging endorsement for the Astros’ Annual College Classic Friday through Sunday. The reigning national champion Tennessee Volunteers and runner-up Texas A&M Aggies head the field. Rice, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Arizona fill out what is always an excellent six-team event. With gorgeous weather forecast through the weekend the roof should be open throughout. RIGHT?
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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