Gambling recap

NFL Week 9: National Fight League?

The Cowboys and Zeke Elliot won, but the total went under. Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Fight-is to take part in a violent struggle involving the exchange of physical contact or sometimes is used to describe a quarrel or argument.

To Fight: can also be used when campaigning determinedly for or against something, especially when trying to prove a point or show interest in a specific matter.

This week we saw both of these "fights" in the NFL.

In the mixed martial arts fight of the day, A.J Green attempted a chokehold on Jacksonville cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The two went to the ground where Green continued to deliver punches to the cornerback's helmet. Both were ejected for some reason when Ramsey didn't do nearly as much as Green did.

In the Cardinals vs. 49ers game, Carlos Hyde tried to stick up for his Quarterback after an unnecessary roughness call.  Haason Reddick , Frostee Rucker and Hyde were all ejected from the game.

In the silliest fight of the weekend, Jameis Winston poked the back of Marshon Lattimore's helmet, resulting in the defensive back, shoving back Winston. Out of nowhere, Mike Evans comes flying in with a hit stick type creation, sending the players into a frenzy on the sideline. The most important factor here is Winston was out of the game with an apparent injury. Why is your play caller on the field starting fights?

In the other type of fight mentioned, we touch on the "fight" the Giants and others put up in their games this weekend. The average margin of victory this week was a dozen points. Eight of the thirteen games, were decided by double digits. The number would have been 10, but late scores by Baltimore and Miami helped the figure out.

So are teams "fighting" until the final whistle? In the Giants vs. Rams game, we saw New York give up fairly quickly. Two, turnovers converted into early touchdowns set the tone. What sticks out the most, has to be the 3rd and 33 score. A short Pass to Robert Woods broke out for a 52-yard travesty as the Giants Landon Collins took a horrid angle allowing the play to break open.  Last time a thirty yard plus third down was converted? 1999. Shortly after, the levees broke completely, when Jared Goff hit Sammy Watkins with a 67-yard bomb again because of a bad play, this time a blown coverage by Eli Apple. The Giants never "fought" again in the game and gave up 51 points at home.

Play, action or Pass went 3-4-1 Week 9. We are now 10-9-2 for the year.

Rams-3 WIN

Jaguars -5.5 WIN

Cowboys/ Chiefs over 54 LOSS

Saints/ Buccaneers over 51 LOSS

Titans-3 PUSH

Saints Team Total over 28.5 WIN

Teasers: Sea/Colts - Sea/ Packers  LOSS

In what could have been a winning week, The Seahawks squandered a fourpoint lead late in the 4th quarter, allowing the Redskins to strike on a four-play drive. Legion of whom?

From the cashier's window

Most bet Teams:

Eagles 80%

Raiders 77%

Saints 76%

Rams 73%

Seahawks 73%

The favorites took the week once again going 7-4-2 ATS and 9-4 straight up. What once was a world of barking dogs, the favorites have caught up quickly for the year and are now 60-63-6. In the last three Sundays, favorites are a combined 21-10-4 (68 %) ATS. One trend that did live on is that the four underdogs that covered all won the game outright. So when playing underdogs, play them outright also.

Largest underdog to cover: Redskins +8.5 (Moneyline+350)

As mentioned earlier, the Seahawks had a late 4 point lead and allowed Kirk Cousins to orchestrate a four-play drive to take the lead 17-14. Seattle kicker Blair Walsh also missed three field goals Sunday to add to the Seahawks debacle. For Seattle, this is a devastating blow to the momentum they were building up. The Redskins were missing four starters on the offensive line and three from the defensive front seven. Greg Manusky had the defensive unit ready, and they created pressure on Russell Wilson all game long.

Honorable mention: Colts +6 (Moneyline +210)

Largest Favorite to cover

Eagles -7

The Eagles once again showed why they are considered by many, to be the cream of the crop of the NFL. Philadelphia backers never had to sweat, as the Eagles came out early and the spread was never in doubt. As for Carson Wentz, he shined again vs. one of the NFL's top defenses. He only threw for 199 yards (4TD), but much had to do with the 31-9 halftime lead. The Eagles have now outscored opponents 64-9 in the first quarter this season, so look for chances to play them early in games.

Totals:

The over/under was 6-7 in Week 9 and 66-65-1 in 2017.

In another wild Primetime finish, over bettors were once again rewarded with a miracle. The game had a total of 43, and through three quarters with only 20 points on the board, over bettors were using their tickets as coasters. Things quickly changed and a pass interference call with 0:00 time on the clock, allowed the Packers to punch in a meaningless touchdown, driving the total across the magic number 43 (30-17).

Through 29 primetime games, the over is now 18-11 (62%)

SUPER BOWL ODDS

NE 4-1

Phi 6-1

Pit 7-1

KC 12-1

Sea 14-1

NO 15-1

Dal, LAR 16-1

Min 18-1

Jax, Car, Ten 30-1

Atl 35-1

Oak 45-1

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

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A WEEKLY REVIEW OF O'BRIEN'S COACHING

Not my job: Texans no match for the Ravens

Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.

The Texans fell to the Ravens 33-16 in a game they had a shot at winning. Most of you reading this will probably think I'm crazy for saying that. I assure you, I meant what I said. One of the reasons they didn't was because Bill O'Brien made a few questionable decisions that cost this team.

The first was the 4th & 1 decision. Deciding to go for it was bad enough. They were down 3-0 near the end of the first quarter with the ball on their own 34-yard line. This is not a situation that calls for a gamble or statement play. The play call itself was okay I guess: a play action bootleg with two short options. It was read and played perfectly by the Ravens defense. Deshaun Watson had nowhere to go with the ball and had to throw it at Darren Fells' back before getting sacked. That led to a quick Ravens touchdown and an early 10-0 deficit. I seriously think he has PTSD after that playoff loss to the Chiefs when it comes to fourth down calls. Bumbling Bill strikes again!

When they got the ball back, they scored a touchdown thanks to more play action passes and pre-snap motion. It was as if Bumbling Bill realized his offensive line was outmatched by the front seven they're opposing. Sure Watson is mobile and looks like a magician escaping sacks, but misdirection helps throw the defense off and keeps Watson from breaking into 177,000,000 pieces. Oh, and the quick reads were a good idea as well. Too bad Bumbling Bill went away from that and opted for longer developing routes. Or will he blame it on Timid Tim Kelly? Or was Waiting Watson holding onto the ball too long? I blame all three.

Also, can we stop starting drives with the predictable run, run, pass combo please? First down should be play action rollout with Watson having the ability to choose to run if it's there. More run/pass/option plays need to be called as well. Incorporate more things that we saw when Watson was on his way to winning rookie of the year before his knee was sacrificed for the Astros.

Credit where it's due: the end of the first half to get a field goal with a minute and change left was good to see. Typically, these situations tend to make Bumbling Bill come out. I liked the quick slant to Cobb with no timeouts. They were able to spike the ball and get the field goal up.

The game was still within reach at 23-13 in the beginning of the fourth quarter. On a 4th & 1, they gave up a 30 yard touchdown run on a direct snap to Mark Ingram. I saw gaps on both sides of the defensive line pre-snap. Sure enough, Ingram got a lead block from the Ravens human plough of a fullback and that effectively put the nail in the coffin at 30-13. I know the tendency is to quarterback sneak or run up the middle, but don't leave gaps along the defensive line trying to stack the middle. First time defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver will take the L on this one.

Overall, I'll give O'Brien and his coaching staff a C- this game. Mistakes were made that could've cost them a legit shot at winning, but the Keke Coutee fumble return for a touchdown wasn't their fault. The play calling menu was brought to us this week by Craft Pita via the "What's Eric Eating" podcast. Tune in next week for another "Not my job!"

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