THE PALLILOG
Mounting evidence suggests Astros dodged a huge bullet with Nolan Arenado
Dec 19, 2024, 9:11 am
Nolan Arenado isn't ready to come to Houston. Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images.
While we wait to see whether the Texans get to avoid facing Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City Saturday, Houston and another "Show Me" state team popped into the news this week. There is irony in St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado exercising his no-trade clause to prevent him from being traded to the Astros. Obviously, Arenado sees the Astros as no longer the behemoth they were for several seasons. Well, neither is Arenado. The Astros were last an elite ballclub in 2022 (and have the World Series trophy to prove it). Arenado was last an elite player in 2022 when he finished third in National League Most Valuable Player Award voting. The Astros were still good the last two years though no longer special. Arenado was a little above mediocre in 2023 and plain mediocre in 2024. If he’s trying to squeeze additional money beyond the 74 million dollars left on the three years remaining on his contract in order to approve the trade, he’s in fantasyland. Arenado is highly overpaid at his level of performance the last two seasons. More reasonably, he’s probably hoping he can funnel himself to the Yankees, Mets, or Phillies, all of whom may be in the third baseman market, and all of whom are stronger looking organizations than the Astros project to be over the next three seasons. You probably can add the Red Sox to that list.
The purported terms of the deal the Astros had put the cart before the horse with the Cardinals had the Redbirds paying off some of Arenado’s deal to get rid of the rest of the money from their books, leaving the Astros on the hook for three years and 45 million dollars or so. Three years at 15 mil per for a guy in serious decline over the last two years and who turns 34 years old in April? No thanks. That would be bolting shut the door shut on Alex Bregman. Maybe that should read further bolting shut the door.
Consider the following, with which I made my Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast compadres recoil in horror this week:
In 2024 Nolan Arenado had 578 at bats and produced 39 extra base hits.
In 2023 Jose Abreu had 540 at bats and produced 42 extra base hits.
It’s not advanced calculus. The abysmal Abreu had fewer ABs than Arenado yet delivered more extra base hits. Check please! Granted, while Abreu was also generally feeble defensively at first base, Arenado is still a solid glove man at the hot corner, though not the guy who won Gold Gloves the first ten seasons of his career. But you get the point. The 2024 Astro most comparable offensively to Arenado for time played...Jon Singleton.
In the Kyle Tucker trade the Astros acquired Isaac Paredes who is best suited defensively to play third. The highest hope of return in the deal is Cam Smith, a third baseman by trade, though he may wind up at first base or in the outfield. There is also Brice Matthews to consider. Maybe Matthews winds up succeeding Jeremy Pena at shortstop. Or maybe he better projects as a third baseman.
Taking on three years of Arenado and blocking prospects would be silly. Moving him to first base would diminish his defensive value. At his 15 million dollar salary Arenado will make within a couple million of what Tucker projects to make in 2025 via salary arbitration. This with Arenado not half the player Tucker is presently. Although his offensive numbers are inflated from his eight seasons playing in the hitting haven that is Denver (career OPS at Coors Field is .982, everywhere else .795), Arenado is a very legitimate Hall of Fame candidate. He’s been a better player over his career than Bregman has been over his. But in neither 2023 nor 2024 was Arenado as good as Bregman. There’s little reason to think Arenado will be the better player in 2025. Obviously the pay grade would be significantly different but it would be an interesting (nicer word for it) look for the Astros to take on a declined player for his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons, while they got all squirrely over paying Kyle Tucker beyond his age 33 season (Tucker has six seasons to play before he turns 34). Arenado is one of numerous reasons why the Astros reasonably see it as stretching to the limit in offering Bregman six years through his age 36 season.
The Astros are trying to thread the needle of staying competitive (which doesn’t require excellence in the American League West) while ideally getting the payroll below the Competitive Balance Tax thresholds. It’s not as if Jim Crane is being a payroll cheapskate. The Astros presently project to be in the top eight in CBT payroll. The 2025 Astros will suffer because of the financial dead weights that are Abreu, Rafael Montero, and to large if not full extents Lance McCullers and Cristian Javier. At least neither the Mariners nor Rangers have done anything to their roster that moves the needle. They still could, but haven’t yet.
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With overnight temperatures dipping into the 20s this week in Houston, it seems good timing to have the warm thoughts of baseball being back, at least spring training games. The Astros have more shakiness about their squad than they have had in nearly a decade, but the Astros still have a nucleus of an American League West contender. With the exits of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, it’s just a notably different nucleus than in recent years.
Jose Altuve is the last remaining mainstay of the greatest era in Astros’ history, and he is one of the biggest stories of their preseason as he for the time being at least is left fielder Jose Altuve. By every indication he is embracing the challenge with class and energy. The obvious impetus for test driving the move is the soon-to-be 35 years old Altuve’s defensive deterioration. It can be tough for the player himself to notice that his range has declined. The voiding of defensive shifts after the 2022 season shined a brighter light on Altuve’s D decline. Still, last season Altuve made his ninth All-Star team and despite also displaying some offensive decline remained the clearly best offensive second baseman in the American League. It’s part of the tradeoff of reducing the defensive workload on Yordan Alvarez, and hoping to upgrade defensively at second with some combo of Mauricio Dubon, Brendan Rodgers, or other.
The natural comparison in Astros’ history of a franchise icon losing his defensive spot and making a late-career position change is to Craig Biggio. Biggio’s All-Star days were behind him when the Astros moved him from second base to center field for the 2003 season because of the signing of free agent Jeff Kent. It spoke to the athlete Biggio was that at 37 years old he could make the move at all. After not quite a season and a half in center, Biggio moved to left when the Astros traded for young stud center fielder Carlos Beltran. Both Kent and Beltran left in free agency after the 2004 season, and Biggio moved back to second for the final three seasons of his career.
Second basemen are often second basemen and not shortstops in part because of their throwing arms. Altuve’s throwing arm will be an issue in left field. Even though Daikin Park has the smallest square footage of fair territory in Major League Baseball because of its left to left-center field dimensions, Altuve’s arm will be a liability. In understandably wanting to put an optimistic spin on things, manager Joe Espada and general manager Dana Brown have talked of how Altuve will be able to get momentum behind throws more so than when playing second. That’s true when camping under a fly ball in the outfield. That is not true when Altuve will have to cut off balls hit toward the left field line, or cutting across into the left-center field gap. There will be balls that would be singles when hit to other left fielders that will become doubles when Altuve has to play them, and baserunners will go from first to third and second to home much more readily. As an infielder Altuve has always been outstanding at running down pop-ups, so there is reason to believe he’ll be solid tracking fly balls in the outfield. However, the reality of a guy who is five feet six inches tall (in spikes) is that there will be the occasional fly ball or line drive that is beyond his grasp that more “normal” sized outfielders would grab. Try to name a good outfielder who stood shorter than five-foot-nine...
Here’s one: Hall of Famer Tim Raines (also originally a second baseman) was (and presumably still is!) five-foot-eight.
Here's another: Hall of Famer Hack Wilson was five-six. Four times he led the National League in home runs topped by a whopping 56 in 1930 when he set the still standing record of 191 runs batted in for a single season.
And another: Hall of Famer five-foot-four “Wee” Willie Keeler. Who last played in 1910.
Just a bit outside
Another element new to the Grapefruit League in Florida (and Cactus League in Arizona) this year is the limited use of what Major League Baseball is calling the Automated Ball Strike System. The ABS is likely coming to regular season games next year. This spring will be our first look at its use in big league games. Home plate umpires making ball and strike calls will not be going the way of the dinosaur. Challenges can be made until a team is wrong twice. Significantly, only the batter, pitcher, or catcher can challenge and must do so within two seconds of the pitch being caught. No dugout input allowed. No time to watch a replay.
The Astros’ spring park in West Palm Beach is not among the 13 facilities set up with ABS cameras. That seems silly given that the Astros share the place with the Washington Nationals. More use would be gotten from, and more data collected there than will be from a park with half the spring games played in it.
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