OHTANI RIPPLE EFFECT
Ohtani's domino effect: How his contract shifts the Astros' fortunes
Dec 12, 2023, 4:01 pm
Could the Astros use the Dodgers' blueprint? Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images.
Shohei Ohtani announced he's signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In true Shohei fashion, he casually dropped a Dodger logo on Instagram while thanking the Angels organization and fans in the caption after explaining his decision. The 10-year, $700 million dollar deal almost seems cartoonish when compared to the other high profile deals signed in recent years. It's far and away the biggest contract in MLB and American sports history
Let's take a quick look at some of the numbers for comparison purposes: The overall value is $273.5 million more dollars than the $426.5 million dollar deal Mike Trout signed in 2019. His annual average value is $26.67 million per year higher than the ones Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer signed last year. The 10 years in length is two to four years shorter than guys like Julio Rodriguez, Bryce Harper, and Fernando Tatis Jr have signed in recent years.
Here are a couple tweets explaining things:
This isn't the Dodgers' first foray into deferred money. Combined with Mookie Betts' and Freddie Freeman's deals, they will owe the three players a whopping $857 million from 2033-2044! Their loophole discovery should be exploited to high heavens until it's changed!
"Now Jermaine...how and why is this beneficial to the Astros?" Glad you asked. As a decent-sized market for an MLB team, the Astros are in a unique position. They've been on a heater and need to keep that window open. Jim Crane wants to spend to compete, but not go crazy in the luxury tax. This is where Ohtani's idea to defer $680 million of his $700 million dollar deal to the 10 years AFTER his deal expires comes into play. The Astros have a couple of guys coming up for extensions next offseason in Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. You may have heard of them. Or what about Kyle Tucker? He's proven himself almost as valuable to their future as Yordan Alvarez.
This mostly applies to Tucker. He's 26 now and will be 28 when/if he hits the open market. A left-handed hitting outfielder who has a pretty good tool set will command a ton of interest. Crane is known for staying away from long term deals to not hamstring the organization. However, if he could offset the initial costs by deferring money, why wouldn't he offer Tucker eight years for $240 or so million dollars and defer the money into future years?
I love Bregman and Altuve. I'd love for them to retire as Astros. But business needs to make sense for the franchise. Both guys are coming off good extensions and are ready for one last payday. Why not extend them and defer money, then possibly convert some of that into salary as a team consultant? Who wouldn't want Altuve as a batting coach, or Bregman as your fielding instructor?
If any of these pitchers (Framber Valdez comes to mind first) looks around and sees what others are getting, they're going to want big money as well. The biggest thing this hinges upon is the willingness of the player. Someone like Bregman and Altuve have made their money and get endorsements. They may be more open to this scenario. Tucker and Framber haven't had their second deals yet. They may not want to postpone the life-changing financial windfall. Especially since they already have rings.
“If you can't beat 'em, join 'em!” That phrase has always stood out to me. Sometimes, it makes me feel as if it condones whatever actions someone is doing, typically something illegal or against the rules. Other times, it could be a situation like this where someone discovers something amazing to aid their cause. Regardless of how/why this came about, it's time for the Astros to get creative in how they're going to keep this window open. If they don't, they may fall victim to being another team that flashed and now can no longer compete. Hopefully they keep flashing as long as they have something worth showing off.
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The phrase most associated with the late former Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland Raiders’ owner Al Davis was “Just win baby.” One has to think Al would strongly approve of the Houston Astros. Going to the fifth inning Sunday against the Mariners the Astros were facing a 3-0 deficit and staring at the prospect of being swept out of Seattle and having their American League West division lead slashed to just two games. Now after roaring from behind with 11 unanswered runs to take the series finale in the Emerald City, and then sweeping three games from the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Astros stand six games up with 60 games to go. So, if the Astros play just .500 ball the rest of the way (which would have them finish with 90 victories), the Mariners have to play .600 ball to catch them. If somehow the Astros are to maintain their season long win pace to the finish line they’d close with 95 wins, and the race is already over unless someone thinks the M’s are poised to uncork a finishing kick of 41-19 or better. It’s quite a pleasing perch from which the Astros survey the standings. Coupled with the freefalling Detroit Tigers having dropped nine of their last ten games, the Astros amazingly start this homestand sporting the best record in the entire American League. On the homestand they follow four games against the team with the second-worst record in the American League (Athletics) with three versus the team with the second-worst record in the National League (Nationals). I know, I know. There is fear of the Astros playing down to the competition, but that is not the way to look at it. A bad Major League team can beat a good team in a series at any time. If it happens it happens, but it wouldn’t mean it happened only because the Astros didn’t take their opponent seriously. This isn’t the NBA.
Trade deadline looming
Of course, It hasn’t been all good news with Isaac Paredes badly injuring a hamstring Sunday. Paredes could be back in three weeks (doubtful), he could miss the rest of the season. GET WELL SOON JEREMY PENA! Lance McCullers’s latest Injured List stint could be considered addition by subtraction for the Astros’ starting rotation. Whether impacted by his blister issue, Lance was lousy in four of his last five starts. So, one week from the trade deadline, if general manager Dana Brown has the ammo to get one deal done, where does he make the upgrade? The left-handed hitter everyone knows the Astros can use regardless of Yordan Alvarez’s status is a natural priority. With the Astros’ weak farm system it would seem difficult for Brown to put forth the winning offer for the top bats that could be in play. That probably rings even truer now, since if he wasn’t already untouchable, Brice Matthews may have cemented untouchable status by darn near winning the first two games of the Diamondbacks series by himself. Matthews is going to struggle mightily to hit for a good average if he can’t make notable improvement in the contact department, but the power is obvious, as is the athleticism in the field. The 23-year-old Matthews and 22-year-old Cam Smith (though presently mired in a three for 36 slump) are the clear (and right now only) two young shining beacons for the lineup’s future.
You can't have enough pitching
While Brandon Walter has been a revelation, a starting pitcher would make sense unless the decision is to hope Spencer Arrighetti and/or Cristian Javier can contribute meaningfully upon return to the big leagues, likely sometime next month. Going after a reliever or two may make more sense in terms of availability and transaction cost. Overall the Astros’ bullpen has been excellent, but Bryan Abreu is the only trustworthy right-handed option for Joe Espada. Back to Walter. Barely two months ago no way Walter himself would have believed he’d be where he is now. Nine starts since being summoned basically out of desperation, Walter has a 3.35 earned run average, and a stunning 13 to one strikeout-to-walk ratio with his 52 strikeouts against a measly four walks allowed in 53 2/3 innings. Walter has pitched fabulously in seven of his nine starts. He only has two wins, but that’s because in five of the six Walter starts the Astros didn’t win the game they failed to score more than two runs. Walter turns 29 years old in September. His only prior big league experience was 23 innings in relief with a 6.26 ERA for the Red Sox two years ago. The Bosox released him last August, the Astros signed him basically as minor league depth. Look at him (and the Astros) now.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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