OHTANI RIPPLE EFFECT
Ohtani's domino effect: How his contract shifts the Astros' fortunes
Dec 12, 2023, 4:01 pm
OHTANI RIPPLE EFFECT
Shohei Ohtani announced he's signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In true Shohei fashion, he casually dropped a Dodger logo on Instagram while thanking the Angels organization and fans in the caption after explaining his decision. The 10-year, $700 million dollar deal almost seems cartoonish when compared to the other high profile deals signed in recent years. It's far and away the biggest contract in MLB and American sports history
Let's take a quick look at some of the numbers for comparison purposes: The overall value is $273.5 million more dollars than the $426.5 million dollar deal Mike Trout signed in 2019. His annual average value is $26.67 million per year higher than the ones Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer signed last year. The 10 years in length is two to four years shorter than guys like Julio Rodriguez, Bryce Harper, and Fernando Tatis Jr have signed in recent years.
Here are a couple tweets explaining things:
This isn't the Dodgers' first foray into deferred money. Combined with Mookie Betts' and Freddie Freeman's deals, they will owe the three players a whopping $857 million from 2033-2044! Their loophole discovery should be exploited to high heavens until it's changed!
"Now Jermaine...how and why is this beneficial to the Astros?" Glad you asked. As a decent-sized market for an MLB team, the Astros are in a unique position. They've been on a heater and need to keep that window open. Jim Crane wants to spend to compete, but not go crazy in the luxury tax. This is where Ohtani's idea to defer $680 million of his $700 million dollar deal to the 10 years AFTER his deal expires comes into play. The Astros have a couple of guys coming up for extensions next offseason in Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. You may have heard of them. Or what about Kyle Tucker? He's proven himself almost as valuable to their future as Yordan Alvarez.
This mostly applies to Tucker. He's 26 now and will be 28 when/if he hits the open market. A left-handed hitting outfielder who has a pretty good tool set will command a ton of interest. Crane is known for staying away from long term deals to not hamstring the organization. However, if he could offset the initial costs by deferring money, why wouldn't he offer Tucker eight years for $240 or so million dollars and defer the money into future years?
I love Bregman and Altuve. I'd love for them to retire as Astros. But business needs to make sense for the franchise. Both guys are coming off good extensions and are ready for one last payday. Why not extend them and defer money, then possibly convert some of that into salary as a team consultant? Who wouldn't want Altuve as a batting coach, or Bregman as your fielding instructor?
If any of these pitchers (Framber Valdez comes to mind first) looks around and sees what others are getting, they're going to want big money as well. The biggest thing this hinges upon is the willingness of the player. Someone like Bregman and Altuve have made their money and get endorsements. They may be more open to this scenario. Tucker and Framber haven't had their second deals yet. They may not want to postpone the life-changing financial windfall. Especially since they already have rings.
“If you can't beat 'em, join 'em!” That phrase has always stood out to me. Sometimes, it makes me feel as if it condones whatever actions someone is doing, typically something illegal or against the rules. Other times, it could be a situation like this where someone discovers something amazing to aid their cause. Regardless of how/why this came about, it's time for the Astros to get creative in how they're going to keep this window open. If they don't, they may fall victim to being another team that flashed and now can no longer compete. Hopefully they keep flashing as long as they have something worth showing off.
Two first-place teams, identical records, and a weekend set with serious measuring-stick energy.
The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs open a three-game series Friday night at Daikin Park, in what could quietly be one of the more telling matchups of the summer. Both teams enter at 48-33, each atop their respective divisions — but trending in slightly different directions.
The Astros have been red-hot, going 7-3 over their last 10 while outscoring opponents by 11 runs. They've done it behind one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, with a collective 3.41 ERA that ranks second in the American League. Houston has also been dominant at home, where they’ve compiled a 30-13 record — a stat that looms large heading into this weekend.
On the other side, the Cubs have held their ground in the NL Central but have shown some recent shakiness. They're 5-5 over their last 10 games and have given up 5.66 runs per game over that stretch. Still, the offense remains dangerous, ranking fifth in on-base percentage across the majors. Kyle Tucker leads the way with a .287 average, 16 homers, and 49 RBIs, while Michael Busch has been hot of late, collecting 12 hits in his last 37 at-bats.
Friday’s pitching matchup features Houston’s Brandon Walter (0-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and Chicago’s Cade Horton (3-1, 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), a promising young arm making one of his biggest starts of the season on the road. Horton will have his hands full with Isaac Paredes, who’s slugged 16 homers on the year, and Mauricio Dubón, who’s found a groove with four home runs over his last 10 games.
It’s the first meeting of the season between these two clubs — and if the trends continue, it may not be the last time they cross paths when it really counts.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -112, Cubs -107; over/under is 8 1/2 runs
Here's a preview of Joe Espada's Game 1 lineup.
The first thing that stands out is rookie Cam Smith is hitting cleanup, followed by Jake Meyers. Victor Caratini is the DH and is hitting sixth. Christian Walker is all the way down at seventh, followed by Yainer Diaz, and Taylor Trammell who is playing left field.
How the mighty have fallen.
Pretty wild to see Walker and Diaz hitting this low in the lineup. However, it's justified, based on performance. Walker is hitting a pathetic .214 and Diaz is slightly better sporting a .238 batting average.
Screenshot via: MLB.com
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