The Pallilog
On Texans-Colts, college football in Texas and more
Jan 4, 2019, 5:55 am
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Andrew Luck and the Colts will be a big test.
The Texans winning the AFC South at 11-5 has already certified 2018 as a good season. But they have to beat the Colts for the season to be considered any better than good. The division title rings hollow if the Texans lose at home to the Colts for the second time in less than a month.
Both teams rose from the near-NFL dead to get here. The Texans going 11-2 after their 0-3 start, the Colts an even more amazing 9-1 finish to climb from a 1-5 ditch. The Colts appear to be the slightly better and more balanced team right now, but it's the same team that lost 6-0 at Jacksonville the week before winning at NRG Stadium.
Within one game past performance, trends, and any other data can mean absolutely nothing. The Texans sure hope so on this: Deshaun Watson was the most sacked (62 times) quarterback in the NFL this season, and also the most sacked per pass attempt among full-time starters. Andrew Luck threw 134 more passes than Watson this season, and was sacked just 18 times. The Texans did sack Luck four times in the first meeting, but the Colts were minus injured left tackle Anthony Castonzo and Luck did throw for 464 yards and four touchdowns.
Luck should edge out J.J. Watt for the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award. Both have had marvelous return seasons, but Luck is more critical to his team's success. He lit up the Texans' secondary to the extent that if his two games vs. the Texans were extrapolated over a 16 game schedule Luck and not Patrick Mahomes would be the rightful Most Valuable Player winner. Unless Watt or Jadeveon Clowney has a superstar level game there's not much reason to believe Luck won't be prolific again, unless Texans Destroyer T.Y. Hilton is significantly hindered by his gimpy ankle.
For the Texans, Keke Coutee could be a serious wild card. Coutee's seemingly porcelain hamstring is cleared to play, will it hold up in his first game since November? Coutee could make some hay working underneath as the Colts' defense rightfully focuses on DeAndre Hopkins. In last month's loss to the Colts Hopkins posted a season low 36 receiving yards on just four catches. Remember, in the game at Indy Coutee debuted with 11 receptions. If the Texans' running game remains as inept as it's been the past four weeks, someone other than Watson or Hopkins needs to produce.
Bowled over
Other than the playoff semifinal games, other than for preening purposes and coach bonuses, college football bowl results mean very little. Teams play for the first time in several weeks, motivation levels vary, and increasing numbers of players are opting to skip the bowl game and the injury risk that comes with playing,
That said, for the two flagship college programs in Texas the needles are pointing up in 2019. Though Darrell Royal is spinning in his grave if Longhorns consider a 10-4 season means "We're baaaaack!"
While the Horns took it to fifth ranked Georgia, the Aggies blew out an overmatched North Carolina State team. So when the final AP rankings come out after Monday's Alabama-Clemson championship game, for just the second time this millennium Texas and Texas A&M will both finish in the Top 25. 2012 is the only season before this one it's happened. How amazingly lame is that?
Jimbo Fisher's 9-4 debut season in Aggieland goes down as good but not better than that, and certainly not the results that will be deemed acceptable over the life of Fisher's 10 year $75 million dollar contract. Among the Aggies' road games in 2019: at Clemson, at Georgia, and at LSU. A&M must break through and win at least one of those (and not blow any home games) for Fisher to really have the program on the come.
Right now, Tom Herman's upcoming third season at UT in would have Texas favored in every game on its schedule. That includes LSU in Austin, and post-Kyler Murray Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl.
The undefeated
While UH football tries to buy status by lavishing Dana Holgorsen with a five year $20 million dollar deal, it's Cougar basketball doing the great things. 14-0 for Kelvin Sampson's squad heading into Sunday's home game vs. Penny Hardaway's Memphis Tigers before a test of a road stop at Temple on Wednesday. It's not the Final Four people dream of, but the Cougars are among the final four undefeated teams among the 353 who started the season in D1 college hoops (Michigan, Virginia, Nevada).
Buzzer Beaters
1. James Harden is on an utterly awesome offensive roll. Rules different, but Kobe Bryant was not this good. 2. 65 degrees and mostly sunny, so of course the Texans will have the roof closed. $50 million dollar boondoggle. 3. If exactly one Wild Card road team wins this weekend: Bronze-Chargers Silver-Seahawks Gold-Colts.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.