The Pallilog
Pallilo's view: Believe it or not, Texans will be in the thick of the wild card race with a win Monday
Nov 22, 2017, 8:00 am
Tom Savage sucked less last week. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
A slightly shorter Pallilog entry this week because the tryptophan overdose is making me sleepy…
We know that the Texans as constituted are not a good football team. But Monday night at Baltimore they play a game with legitimate AFC playoff picture implications. That is testimony to the pitiful state of the AFC Wildcard race. The Texans are 4-6. The most likely result is they lose as seven point underdogs and that is that. But the Texans beating the 5-5 Ravens would be an upset not a miracle, and if they pull it off to get to 5-6 their chances at an AFC wild card berth would be as good as any team in the race besides the Titans.
You get one guess as to what team has scored the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL this season. Right! The Ravens. Have yourself an extra helping of leftovers. The Ravens have scored a paltry 16 offensive TDs in their 10 games. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco simply isn’t very good. Flacco parlayed one brilliant Super Bowl winning postseason into a six year 120 million dollar contract, and because the Ravens were salary cap-strapped last year they gave him a three year 66 mil extension. Since winning Super Bowl XLVII (47 for those who struggle with Roman numerals) the Ravens have one playoff win. This season Flacco has thrown nine touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. Only the Bengals have gained fewer yards this season. Alas, the Texans’ defense comes off being the first NFL team to ever give up three touchdown passes in a game to Blaine Gabbert. With a leaky secondary and a lackluster pass rush the Texans just don’t seem capable of shutting down any offense these days. Their D almost has to play over its head Monday for the Texans to win. Because…
The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season, only the Jaguars and Steelers have allowed fewer points. The Ravens have posted three shutouts. Yes those came over the early season punchless Bengals, the Dolphins’ clown show attack, and the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. The Texans’ offense has much more in common with that hapless trio than it does with the Patriots, Eagles, or Saints. Credit Tom Savage for last week against the Cardinals for the first time looking like he at least belonged in the NFL. A Monday night relapse seems a decent bet.
The Ravens also have one of the best sets of special teams in the league. In the spirit of the holiday season let’s just say the Texans do not and leave it at that.
Tis the season...
...for college football coaches to get fired left and right. In the SEC alone Florida, Tennessee, and Mississippi have openings, with Arkansas and Texas A&M probably joining the list by early next week. Kevin Sumlin’s tenure in Aggieland certainly hasn’t been terrible, but as certainly it hasn’t been very good and is certainly not trending up. The Aggies last won an SEC East game at Kyle Field in October. Of 2015! Unacceptable. A 10 million dollar payoff for Sumlin to not coach A&M the next two years is obviously doable. UCLA just fired Jim Mora and must pay him more than 12 mil to not coach the Bruins the next two years. Sumlin is among the names in the rumor mill for the UCLA job. The team against which his Ags blew a 44-10 lead in losing the season opener. If Chip Kelly opts for the UCLA job over Florida, the Bruins should consider themselves lucky. Well, if paying a college football coach not named Nick Saban six to 10 million dollars per year should ever have the “lucky” attached to it.
Feel the force Luc!
As the Rockets keep rolling through their early season schedule, quite an impressive number posted by Luc Mbah a Moute Wednesday night as they obliterated the Denver Nuggets. The Rockets won the game by 30. In the 26 minutes Mbah a Moute played, the Rockets outscored the Nuggets by 57! 93-36 in Mbah a Moute’s time on the court. Extrapolated over a full 48 minute game the resulting wipeout would have been Rockets 171 Nuggets 66. Going back 20 years, Mbah a Moute’s personal +57 for the game is the highest put up by any NBA player.
Buzzer beaters
1. The Rockets actually have a chance to hang with the Warriors in the race for regular season Best in the West. 2. Alabama-Auburn is the college football matchup I’d most like to attend some year. 3. Places with a zero percent chance of spotting me Friday: Bronze-any mall Silver-any mall Gold-any mall
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As we embark on another week waiting to hear which team Alex Bregman will land on, there are some new developments to discuss regarding the potential makeup of the 2025 roster.
First, it appears that Jose Altuve will get some opportunities to play left field, whether Bregman returns or not. The Athletic's Chandler Rome recently reported that the Astros were planning on playing Jorge Polanco in the infield, if they had signed him.
But the Mariners outbid the Astros, and Polanco is headed back to Seattle. Polanco's value on the market was more than the Astros anticipated in my opinion, and the team wasn't content with going past the first tax threshold in order to sign him.
Another news item that broke over the weekend was the Tigers signing of pitcher Jack Flaherty. Many were wondering if that deal would preclude Detroit from signing Bregman. But according to reports, the Flaherty contract won't impact their decision on Bregman.
What about the Cubs?
Reports indicate the Cubs are serious about adding Bregman, but they also suggest there is some concern that a 6-year deal without any opt-outs could prevent the Cubs from signing Kyle Tucker long-term. Would Breggy roll the dice on signing a deal Chicago could void after one season?
Jeff Bagwell speaks about Bregman
For those wondering if the Astros will up their offer to Alex, I think we got our answer. Baggy basically said the team gave Alex their “best offer,” and it's on him to go shop it.
On the farm
Keith Law of The Athletic recently posted his list of the best minor league systems. To no one's surprise, the Astros are near the bottom of the list coming in at 29th out of 30 teams, and they only have one Top 100 prospect (Cam Smith). Only the Angels are ranked lower (30th), but it is worth noting that the Braves system (Houston GM Dana Brown's former organization) came in right in front of Houston at number 28.
I only say that to point out that Brown was brought in from Atlanta for his scouting ability, and the Braves having seemingly fallen off when it comes to minor league talent. No fault of Brown's, but worth noting.
Houston's dearth of talent in the minors is the main reason this offseason is so crucial if they want to continue their winning ways. They can't count on any help coming from the farm, and the outfield is already a huge concern.
Finally, Bleacher Report shared their offseason grades last week, and they gave Houston a D. Based on the amount of talent that left this offseason, it's hard to argue with their assessment. Ryan Pressly, Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander, Yusei Kikuchi, and Bregman (the Astros have maintained re-signing him is a “long shot.” )
There's no way around it. That's a lot to overcome. But it doesn't mean they can't win the division as presently constructed.
We have way more to get to! Be sure to watch the video above for the full discussion!
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