THE PALLILOG

Pallilo's View: An ode to Altuve, the AL MVP for 2017

Jose Altuve has another reason to celebrate: The MVP Award. Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

The freshly minted American League Most Valuable Player had the best season any second baseman has had since Joe Morgan’s awesome 1976. Jose Altuve is just the 10th different keystone sacker (baseball lingo!) to win an MVP award since the Baseball Writers Association of America started handing them out in 1931. Morgan is the only to win twice (1975 & 1976). He’s a top five second basemen of all-time. The others with an MVP trophy: Frankie Frisch (1931), Charlie Gehringer (1937), Joe Gordon (1942), Jackie Robinson (1949), Nellie Fox (1959), Ryne Sandberg (1984), Jeff Kent (2000), and Dustin Pedroia (2008). All but Kent and Pedroia are Hall of Famers. It’s ridiculous that in his four years on the ballot Kent has not received more than 17 percent of the 75 percent yes votes necessary for election. Pedroia needs a serious second wind in his mid-30s if he is to be Hall-worthy.

Altuve had outstanding 2014 and 2015 seasons that fit very well on a Hall of a Fame 2B resume, but the last two seasons have raised the bar dramatically. Altuve’s improvement in both power and strike zone judgment elevated him from star to superstar.  Not turning 28 until May, there is no reason to think him incapable of at least a couple more seasons in range of what he did this year, and those would make Altuve highly likely to punch a ticket to Cooperstown down the line.

Those “couple more” superstar seasons segue to the elephant in the room, Altuve’s contract. If Jose had gone year by year, he would have become a free agent five days after the Astros won the World Series. On the open market Altuve would plausibly have commanded a contract worth, say, seven years and 175 million dollars--with 200 million plus conceivable. Heck, Robinson Cano got 10 years 240 million from the Mariners when he was already 31 years old. Altuve’s last two seasons are better than any Cano put up during his tremendous tenure with the Yankees. But Altuve is not a free agent, and can’t become one until after the 2019 season. He is not deserving of a pity party (and hasn’t asked for one). Back in July of 2013 Altuve was a fine young player but not yet a star, nowhere close to superstar. At that point the Astros guaranteed Altuve life changing money: 12 and a half million dollars over four years. In exchange the Astros got options for the 2018 and 2019 seasons at six and six and a half million dollars. So Altuve is now spectacularly underpaid for the player he has become, but what is to be done about it?

Altuve dumped agent Scott Boras in 2013, then re-hired him in the summer of 2016. Boras typically pushes his clients to get to the open market. Altuve would be 29 when he gets there, still in his prime and in position for a monster contract. What if the Astros went to Altuve and said “what about a four year 100 million dollar extension?” Life changing money for generations of Altuves. Would you leave that on the table? It would seem at least a reasonable point from which to negotiate.  Five years 125 mil? Altuve is the second best player in the game right now (Mike Trout is still the best), and an absolute class act. Basically he’s everything you want in a ballplayer on and off the field, including terrifically durable. Altuve has played a minimum of 152 of the Astros’ 162 games five seasons in a row. An extension is warranted and for the Astros smart business in these glorious times for them. But not at whatever terms Scott Boras demands.  So for now, the Astros pay Altuve six mil for 2018 when they will pay Jon Singleton (!) two mil. The Astros hold the six and a half million option on Altuve for 2019. They hold a 10 and a half million dollar option on Singleton for 2019, seems likely they’ll pass on that one.

Amazing that for all the accolades rightfully poured in for Altuve, it’s no better than 50/50 that is he their best player next season. Had Carlos Correa not missed a quarter of the season because of a torn thumb ligament, it may have been unclear whether Altuve was even the Astros’ MVP. Correa is just 23 years old and under Astros control for four more seasons. Which is why if forced to choose one or the other, Correa would almost have to be the choice.

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Here's what to make of the Rockets free agency moves. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

No NBA team with title aspirations entered the offseason with more questions than the Houston Rockets. Ironically, Houston's situation got more precarious as the offseason went along. From head coach Mike D'Antoni walking away after the season to general manager Daryl Morey following suit shortly after that, the Rockets have been a sinking ship in desperate need of stability. They found some of that once new head coach Stephen Silas was hired, but the boat took on more water when star players James Harden and Russell Westbrook demanded to be traded a couple of weeks later.

It's been a giant roller coaster and it was unclear how Houston would approach their free agency. Would they double down on contending for a championship to try and convince their star players to stay or would they be forced to rebuild?

It looks like Houston tried to thread the needle and accomplish both: They appear ready to rebuild if they can't convince James Harden to stay, but also addressed roster needs and acquired better fitting pieces for their stars. It's hard to say whether or not they got better, but they're certainly a lot younger and look to play a lot different. Let's take a look at each player and how they fit into the framework.

Christian Wood

Contract:

3 years, $41 million

Grade:

B+

If there's a signing that embodies Houston's offseason, it's Christian Wood. For obvious reasons and some subtle ones, Wood is the exact kind of player Houston had to acquire this summer. Let's start with the obvious: Wood is the perfect player to have alongside both James Harden and Russell Westbrook because of his unique set of skills. Wood can hit threes at a high clip for someone his size (36.8% for his career) and stretches the floor for the moments you want Russell Westbrook barreling to the rim or James Harden trying to break a trap.

Lob threat

The Rockets didn't have a big man with that capability on the roster last year, so they had to resort to trading for Robert Covington and going small so they could properly space the floor. However, in doing that the Rockets lost their best lob threat and limited themselves on offense even further. This is where Wood solves the second problem: He may not be as good of a lob threat as Clint Capela, but he's damn close.

Over the past few years, the Rockets have slowly phased out pick and roll out of their offense and resorted to isolation. Part of it is because of how teams have defended the pick and roll, but part of it is also them not having the option anymore. James Harden is too good of a pick and roll ball handler for it to not be a part of the Rockets' attack. Adding more pick and roll to Houston's offense should be a priority next season, regardless of what else Silas decides to do.

Clint Capela was the perfect center for James Harden. P.J. Tucker was the perfect center for Russell Westbrook. Christian Wood is the perfect center for both.

Defensive rebounding

Another weakness Houston needed to address this offseason was their defensive rebounding (26th in NBA last season). It got to the point where it was a rarity that Houston would win the rebounding battle against good teams. This was partly by design and partly because of roster weakness. Houston was so porous at rebounding in the beginning of the season, they decided to emphasize turning over opponents to even the possession battle. If Houston were to even marginally improve in defensive rebounding, it could have a drastic positive impact on their defense.

Per 36 minutes:

22.0 PPG

10.6 RPG

1.5 BPG

65.9% True Shooting

Houston also replenished their coffers in the process of acquiring Wood. By flipping Robert Covington to the Blazers, the Rockets netted two draft picks back after losing two the prior offseason in the Westbrook trade. It may not matter in the grand scheme of next season, but these assets could be especially useful if Houston pivots to a rebuild. They could also be useful to upgrade the roster at the trade deadline if Houston gets Harden's buy-in. (As an aside, the series of transactions that led to Wood are impressive and reflect well on new GM Rafael Stone's ability to get deals done.)

The subtle reason Wood embodies their offseason is his age, 25 years old. Wood would immediately become the youngest starter on the team and be a building block piece on the next iteration of the Rockets. He's also old enough to make an immediate impact should Houston acquire a ready-made blue chip prospect in a James Harden trade. With the 76ers rumored to be a team interested in Harden's services, it probably isn't a coincidence that Ben Simmons (24 years old) falls neatly into Wood's age group. It also probably isn't a coincidence that the ideal team for Simmons has always been imagined to be a team that can spread the floor at the four other positions on the court. Having Wood is great start to try and accomplish that.

David Nwaba, Sterling Brown, and Jae'Sean Tate

Contracts:

Negligible

Grade:

B-

Nwaba, Brown, and Tate are all being placed in one category because it's quite clear what the Rockets are trying to accomplish: Take bets on young, cheap wings on the market and hope one pans out enough to make the final rotation for Stephen Silas.

While David Nwaba technically wasn't signed this offseason, he's essentially a free agency signing because the Rockets signed him up a few months ago with the knowledge he wouldn't be able to play in the first year of his deal. He's the oldest of this group (27 years old), has the largest wingspan (7'0"), and has logged the most NBA minutes (3295). Because of all this, he's probably the safest bet to make Houston's final rotation. However, just because he's the 'safest bet' doesn't mean he's a 'safe bet' per se.

Nwaba suffered a season-ending achilles injury on December 9th of last season and has spent the past year rehabbing. It's unclear how he will respond from this, but before the injury, Nwaba had found a nice role in Brooklyn as a combo forward who could shoot well enough from beyond the perimeter (34.4% for his career). The Rockets have desperately needed competent perimeter defenders off the bench since their 2017-18 campaign and a healthy Nwaba was just that.

Sterling Brown, 24, found his way on the fringes of the Bucks' rotation the past few seasons and gained the trust of head coach Mike Budenholzer enough to play nearly 15 minutes a game. Brown is a pesky defender and average three-point shooter (34.5% for his career) and like the other wings in this category, he doesn't need the ball. He's probably the second most proven wing here and if he cracks the rotation, it's unlikely he will have to play more than he did in Milwaukee.

Jae'Sean Tate, 25, is probably the most intriguing prospect of this bunch as he's never played in the NBA before. Tate played under new Rockets assistant coach Will Weaver on the Sidney Kings and averaged 16.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists on 66.0% shooting from the field last season while earning first-team All-NBL honors. He's 6'4" with a 6'8" wingspan and was considered to be one of the top basketball prospects outside the NBA before signing with Houston. The Rockets appear to be quite high on him considering they used part of their mid-level exception to sign him to a three-year deal.

The Rockets already have much of their rotation locked in:

James Harden and Russell Westbrook will likely play at least 35 minutes a piece, P.J. Tucker will probably play around 32 minutes, and finally Danuel House and Christian Wood will likely play around 30 minutes each. That leaves 78 minutes for a bench that already has Eric Gordon and Ben McLemore. Also, Houston will probably sign another center before the season starts. Now, the Rockets may try to ease the load off of some of their older starters, in which case there might be more time available. However, whatever way you slice it, they really only need one of these wings to crack the rotation for regular season purposes.

It's unlikely all three signings end up backfiring for them, but we'll see. Stranger things have happened.

It's also convenient that all three of these players are 27 years or younger should the Rockets decide to trade Harden at the trade deadline. Like Wood, these signings give Houston the option to pivot in another direction. Because of Houston's lack of room under the apron, they didn't have the option to use their full mid-level or bi-annual exception. Ring-chaser types also weren't going to sign with the Rockets for the minimum given the uncertainty surrounding their stars. This was a nice way for Houston to hedge their bets while also filling out the roster with possible contributors.

The Rockets aren't done making moves yet, but they're close. Understanding the circumstances, it's hard to be too critical of what they did in free agency.

Overall Grade: B

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