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Patrick Creighton: Astros rotation will ensure World Series runs through Houston

Patrick Creighton: Astros rotation will ensure World Series runs through Houston
Gerrit Cole was a huge addition. Houston Astros/Facebook

“The work ethic has been established; the bar has been set so high, no one wants to disappoint his teammates.”

Astros broadcaster Steve Sparks said that to me on Monday afternoon, approximately five hours before first pitch of the Astros’ home opener. It seems so simple, yet it reveals so much.

As the Astros look to become the first team in MLB to repeat as World Champions since the 98-2000 Yankees, that statement by Sparks continues to stand out.

Last season, the Astros acquired Justin Verlander with literally one minute to go before the trade deadline Aug. 31.  Verlander seemed to be rejuvenated with the Astros. While Verlander is already likely a Hall of Famer, and he was having a pretty good year on an awful team, he was virtually untouchable when he arrived in Houston.  For example, consider these statistics for Verlander pre and post trade:

Detroit: 10-8 3.82 ERA 1.279 WHIP 8.0 H/9 3.5 BB/9  9.2 K/9

Houston: 5-0  1.06 ERA 0.647 WHIP 4.5 H/9  1.3 BB/9 11.4 K/9

Verlander found an entirely different gear once acquired by the Astros, energized by the team’s championship aspirations and the synergy in the clubhouse.

All preseason, A.J. Hinch raved about Gerrit Cole, the Pirates ace that the Astros acquired in the offseason to further bolster their starting rotation.  Cole was coming off something of a down year but also played on a bad Pittsburgh team with no real hopes of contention. Since coming to Houston, Hinch has marveled at the 27 year old’s dedication and preparation, both mentally and physically.

Cole then was nearly untouchable all preseason, and his first start of the year vs the Rangers was terrific, as he allowed only 1 run over 7 innings and punched 11 tickets. (Astros pitchers refer to strikeouts as "punching tickets").  Cole has been affected by his acquisition by the Astros the same way Verlander was. He is refocused, and at the top of his game.

This is a team that won 101 games last season despite having its top four starters on the DL for most of the month of June last season and two of its top starters, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, made two trips to the DL.  The Astros led MLB in runs scored last season (896 runs, or 5.53 runs/gm). The offense looks to be even better this year (already 5.6 runs/gm as well) and many of the bats haven’t even heated up yet.

Now add in the fact that the Astros rotation is arguably the best in baseball right now.  It’s going to be nearly impossible to keep Astros’ bats at bay for multiple games over a short period, but Houston figures to be one of the stingiest teams in baseball when it comes to allowing runs.

Consider this: Charlie Morton is the Astros fifth starter.  His numbers last season are better than all but two other AL teams’ third starter that pitched at least 100 IP in 2017, and one of those third starters (Lance Lynn/Minnesota) pitched in the National League last season.

For teams whose third starters didn’t have enough innings to qualify, I used their second starters’ stats, and the results were still the same.  The only third starter who pitched in the AL last year whose numbers were better than Morton’s was Marcus Stroman of the Jays.  Essentially, the Astros fifth starter would be at worst the third starter on all but one other team in the AL.

Last season, the Astros had Mike Fiers and his 5.22 ERA make 28 starts.  David Paulino made six starts, and pitched to the tune of a 6.52 ERA. Joe Musgrove made 15 starts last season and was rocked for a 6.12 ERA and had to be moved to the pen.  That’s 49 awful starts last season the Astros offense had to overcome. Somehow those three starters went a combined 16-18 in those 49 starts, mainly because the Astros offense stepped up when they pitched.  How do you think those starts go now with Verlander and Cole making them instead?

I know the season is only five games old, but honestly I didn’t need the five games to know this Astros team is actually better than last year’s championship squad.  The five games just helps to reinforce the concepts. No one on the team wants to be the weakest link, and it forces everyone to raise their level of play consistently.  Success forges success.

The World Series will go through Minute Maid Park in 2018.  The Astros will hang another Championship banner, and break MLB’s stretch of 18 straight non-repeat champions.  Mattress Mack is going to need that insurance policy again.

Bank on it.

Patrick Creighton is the host of “Nate & Creight” weekdays 1-3p on SportsMap 94.1FM Houston, and “Sports & Shenanigans” Sundays 12-5p CT on SB Nation Radio nationwide.  Follow him on Twitter: @pcreighton1

 

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What's the ceiling for Hunter Brown? Composite Getty Image.

It's no secret to Astros fans that the ascension of Hunter Brown is one of the primary reasons the team was able to rebound from a disastrous start to the season.

Astros manager Joe Espada has seen enough from Brown to start throwing around the word “ace” when talking about him.

And it appears the biggest key to Brown's turnaround was mixing in a two-seam fastball to keep right-handed hitters honest. Brown needed a pitch that could command the inside of the plate, which allows his other pitches to be more effective.

We learned just recently, from Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Alex Bregman was the one that suggested the addition of the two-seam fastball to Brown's arsenal.

Come to find out, Bregman often shares advice on how to attack hitters. Or he'll ask pitchers why they chose a certain pitch in a specific situation.

This just goes to show that veteran leadership can make a big difference. Especially on a team with so many young pitchers and catchers. Bregman was able to help Brown when no pitching coach could.

For Brown, this small tweak could be the catalyst that changes the course of his career. And the Astros season for that matter.

However, some will say the difference in Brown is more about confidence than anything else. But confidence only builds after repeated success. Nobody knows where Brown would be without the two-seam fastball.

Looking ahead

If the Astros do make the playoffs, where will Espada slot Brown in the playoff rotation? Framber Valdez has the playoff experience, so he'll probably be penciled in as the number one starter.

Justin Verlander (neck) still isn't facing live batters, so it's hard to count on him. Ronel Blanco has been an All-Star level pitcher this season, but he doesn't have any experience pitching playoff games for the Astros.

So it wouldn't be surprising at all if Brown is the team's number two starter. In all likelihood, whoever is pitching the best at the end of the season may get the nod. But it's fun to discuss in the meantime.

Finally, how does Hunter Brown's arrival impact the Astros' plans at the trade deadline? And how could that affect Justin Verlander's future with the club?

Be sure to check out the video above for the full conversation!

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.



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