ON THE MOUND
Patrick Creighton: Astros rotation will ensure World Series runs through Houston
Apr 3, 2018, 6:33 am
Gerrit Cole was a huge addition. Houston Astros/Facebook
“The work ethic has been established; the bar has been set so high, no one wants to disappoint his teammates.”
Astros broadcaster Steve Sparks said that to me on Monday afternoon, approximately five hours before first pitch of the Astros’ home opener. It seems so simple, yet it reveals so much.
As the Astros look to become the first team in MLB to repeat as World Champions since the 98-2000 Yankees, that statement by Sparks continues to stand out.
Last season, the Astros acquired Justin Verlander with literally one minute to go before the trade deadline Aug. 31. Verlander seemed to be rejuvenated with the Astros. While Verlander is already likely a Hall of Famer, and he was having a pretty good year on an awful team, he was virtually untouchable when he arrived in Houston. For example, consider these statistics for Verlander pre and post trade:
Detroit: 10-8 3.82 ERA 1.279 WHIP 8.0 H/9 3.5 BB/9 9.2 K/9
Houston: 5-0 1.06 ERA 0.647 WHIP 4.5 H/9 1.3 BB/9 11.4 K/9
Verlander found an entirely different gear once acquired by the Astros, energized by the team’s championship aspirations and the synergy in the clubhouse.
All preseason, A.J. Hinch raved about Gerrit Cole, the Pirates ace that the Astros acquired in the offseason to further bolster their starting rotation. Cole was coming off something of a down year but also played on a bad Pittsburgh team with no real hopes of contention. Since coming to Houston, Hinch has marveled at the 27 year old’s dedication and preparation, both mentally and physically.
Cole then was nearly untouchable all preseason, and his first start of the year vs the Rangers was terrific, as he allowed only 1 run over 7 innings and punched 11 tickets. (Astros pitchers refer to strikeouts as "punching tickets"). Cole has been affected by his acquisition by the Astros the same way Verlander was. He is refocused, and at the top of his game.
This is a team that won 101 games last season despite having its top four starters on the DL for most of the month of June last season and two of its top starters, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, made two trips to the DL. The Astros led MLB in runs scored last season (896 runs, or 5.53 runs/gm). The offense looks to be even better this year (already 5.6 runs/gm as well) and many of the bats haven’t even heated up yet.
Now add in the fact that the Astros rotation is arguably the best in baseball right now. It’s going to be nearly impossible to keep Astros’ bats at bay for multiple games over a short period, but Houston figures to be one of the stingiest teams in baseball when it comes to allowing runs.
Consider this: Charlie Morton is the Astros fifth starter. His numbers last season are better than all but two other AL teams’ third starter that pitched at least 100 IP in 2017, and one of those third starters (Lance Lynn/Minnesota) pitched in the National League last season.
For teams whose third starters didn’t have enough innings to qualify, I used their second starters’ stats, and the results were still the same. The only third starter who pitched in the AL last year whose numbers were better than Morton’s was Marcus Stroman of the Jays. Essentially, the Astros fifth starter would be at worst the third starter on all but one other team in the AL.
Last season, the Astros had Mike Fiers and his 5.22 ERA make 28 starts. David Paulino made six starts, and pitched to the tune of a 6.52 ERA. Joe Musgrove made 15 starts last season and was rocked for a 6.12 ERA and had to be moved to the pen. That’s 49 awful starts last season the Astros offense had to overcome. Somehow those three starters went a combined 16-18 in those 49 starts, mainly because the Astros offense stepped up when they pitched. How do you think those starts go now with Verlander and Cole making them instead?
I know the season is only five games old, but honestly I didn’t need the five games to know this Astros team is actually better than last year’s championship squad. The five games just helps to reinforce the concepts. No one on the team wants to be the weakest link, and it forces everyone to raise their level of play consistently. Success forges success.
The World Series will go through Minute Maid Park in 2018. The Astros will hang another Championship banner, and break MLB’s stretch of 18 straight non-repeat champions. Mattress Mack is going to need that insurance policy again.
Bank on it.
Patrick Creighton is the host of “Nate & Creight” weekdays 1-3p on SportsMap 94.1FM Houston, and “Sports & Shenanigans” Sundays 12-5p CT on SB Nation Radio nationwide. Follow him on Twitter: @pcreighton1
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The Houston Astros have looked like one of baseball’s most dangerous teams in recent weeks, riding a hot streak fueled by dominant starting pitching and a red-hot offense that’s erupted for double-digit runs in four of their last eight games. But behind the current success, there are fair questions about whether this pace is truly sustainable as the grind of the season continues.
Yes, the Astros are winning — and winning big — but context matters. Many of their recent victories have come against struggling clubs like the White Sox and Athletics. Even matchups against the Twins and Guardians, while respectable, don’t exactly represent championship-caliber tests. That soft stretch of the schedule has certainly helped Houston pad its win column, but it may not be the best predictor of long-term performance. Houston will be tested in the upcoming series against the Phillies and Cubs.
On the pitching side, the numbers have been impressive, but how repeatable is it? With Lance McCullers Jr. sidelined for at least a couple of weeks, the Astros are relying on a patchwork rotation that includes unproven arms like Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto, and Brandon Walter. While each has shown flashes, asking them to shoulder the load deep into the summer may be a tall order.
Offensively, Houston is firing on all cylinders. But scoring 10 or more runs every other game simply isn’t sustainable over a 162-game season. Regression is inevitable; the question is how the team responds when the bats cool down or the bullpen is asked to carry more weight.
Amid all this, rookie third baseman Cam Smith continues to shine. Just a few months into his major league career, Smith is producing at a level that suggests he’s not just a key piece of the future — he’s already one of the team’s most valuable players. His batting average sits just a point behind Jose Altuve’s, and his OPS is even higher. If the Astros were forced to choose two players to build around long-term, factoring in youth and contract status, the logical duo might be Smith and breakout pitcher Hunter Brown.
So what about the big picture? Is this team a true World Series contender?
Oddsmakers currently have Houston with the seventh-best odds to win it all, and only the Yankees and Tigers rank higher among American League teams. The core is still there, the experience is undeniable, and if the pitching continues to hold — especially with the anticipated return of Spencer Arrighetti and a healthy McCullers — the Astros have every reason to believe they’ll be in the mix deep into October.
But that’s a big “if.” The ceiling is still high, and with Cam Smith emerging as a star in real time, this team might just have another gear. Whether they can reach it when the competition stiffens, that remains to be seen.
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