DEAL OR NO DEAL?
Patrick Creighton: Astros trading Kyle Tucker? Stop it
Feb 13, 2018, 7:20 am
Kyle Tucker is not going anywhere. MLB.com
Over the weekend, a report came out that the Houston Astros were having trade discussions with the Miami Marlins for C J.T. Realmuto. According to the report, from Sirius XM’s Craig Mish, the Marlins want stud prospect Kyle Tucker in any such deal, and that the Astros aren’t opposed to dealing the top-15 minor leaguer in a deal.
My first reaction to this was….. Shenanigans.
Upon further review my reaction is…. Still Shenanigans.
Kyle Tucker is the Astros No. 2 prospect in their system. He was deemed “untouchable” in the Gerrit Cole trade talks. Why would he suddenly be in play now, especially for a less accomplished player?
This isn’t to be disparaging of Realmuto. The soon-to-be 27 year old catcher turned in a career year in 2017, hitting .278/.332/.451 with 17 HR 65 RBI and 31 2B in 532 AB as the primary backstop for the Marlins. He’s also making a team friendly $2.9M in his first year of arbitration. He is considered to be a player on the rise. That doesn’t always mean that career trajectory will continue to point up, but it’s obviously a positive.
However, if we look at Astros’ GM Jeff Luhnow’s recent track record, he doesn’t deal players he thinks are going to be studs. Case in point – Alex Bregman. Bregman’s name was mentioned in every trade scenario that the Astros were reported to be in for over a year. Luhnow was firm in his commitment to not trading him because he believed Bregs would be a star player for a decade or longer. He waited out the trade market for a starting pitcher, ultimately landing Justin Verlander without surrendering his budding star 3B.
If Luhnow feels the same way about Tucker, and considering his past stances on Tucker not being available in deals there is no reason to presume that he doesn’t, then there’s no way Kyle Tucker is being traded for anyone.
Another thing to keep in mind is the guy who broke the story is Craig Mish. Mish, to his credit, also broke the story that Realmuto wanted to be traded to begin with. Clearly, his info is coming from the Miami side of the equation. Miami may want to get Kyle Tucker in return, but that doesn’t mean Luhnow intends to acquiesce to their request.
I’m not suggesting the Astros don’t have interest. There’s plenty of reasons to be interested in Realmuto. Maybe the Astros think McCann can be a mentor to him as well. There is, however, the issue of how often Realmuto would play.
Right now Brian McCann is the Astros starting catcher. He’s 33, he’s making $17M ($11.5M of which the Astros are paying) and coming off a productive season in which he hit .241/.323/.436 with 18 HR and 62 RBI in only 349 ABs. McCann is also a good defensive catcher known for working well with young pitchers.
This, however, should be a legitimate question to ask: Why would the Astros deal for a player who would be a part timer by trading away a bigger prospect who could legitimately be a full time player for Houston in the OF within 12 months (if not 3)?
Consider that Realmuto is already into first year arbitration, and Tucker has (likely) three seasons from when he’s called up to hit Arb 1. Realmuto plays a position that the Astros have 2 legitimate players and Tucker can be a starting RF or LF on arrival.
There’s too many parts here that don’t make sense and don’t follow previously established patterns of Luhnow or the Astros. Interest in Realmuto? Maybe. Trading Kyle Tucker for him? Don’t believe the hype.
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Welcome to Chaos Week in the NBA. For some, anyway.
Going into Tuesday, there are 55 games left in the season — and 19 of the 20 postseason seeds still to be decided. Oklahoma City will be No. 1 in the Western Conference. Everything else is still at least somewhat up for grabs.
To give an idea, here's a breakdown of who can finish where when the regular season ends Sunday:
—East No. 1 and East No. 2: Cleveland (likely the No. 1) or Boston. The Cavs are four games up with four to play.
—East No. 3: New York has a three-game lead on Indiana.
—East No. 4: Indiana has a three-game lead on Milwaukee. The Bucks could get to No. 4, and New York could fall to 4.
—East No. 5: Milwaukee has a 1 1/2 game lead on Detroit. Indiana could fall to No. 5, and Detroit could get to 5.
—East No. 6: Detroit can’t fall past this spot. Milwaukee finishes 6th if the Pistons catch the Bucks.
—East No. 7: Orlando, Atlanta and Chicago could all finish here.
—East Nos. 8-9-10: Orlando, Atlanta, Chicago and Miami could all finish here.
—East Eliminated: Toronto, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Charlotte, Washington.
—West No. 1: It’s Oklahoma City.
—West No. 2: The Rockets will probably finish here. The Los Angeles Lakers can catch them, but it’s a long shot.
—West Nos. 3-4-5-6-7-8: Here’s true wackiness. Houston can’t fall past No. 3. The other six teams in contention here — the Lakers, Denver, Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State, Minnesota and Memphis — could all still finish as high as third and as low as eighth. Endless possibilities.
—West No. 9: It’s probably Sacramento, maybe Dallas.
—West No. 10: It’s probably Dallas, maybe Phoenix.
—West Eliminated: Portland, San Antonio, New Orleans, Utah.
Add it up, and 21 of the 30 teams are still playing for something other than lottery odds with less than a week to go in the regular season.
Tuesday's games
Memphis at Charlotte: The Grizzlies need a win to climb out of play-in range.
Chicago at Cleveland: Bulls looking to move out of 9-10 game range, Cavs looking to clinch No. 1 seed.
Washington at Indiana: Pacers looking to wrap up home-court for Round 1.
Atlanta at Orlando: A huge matchup for East play-in positioning. Could be the first of three games between these two in an eight-day span.
Boston at New York: Celtics need 2-0 road finish to match NBA’s best road mark. Knicks looking to lock up No. 3 seed.
Minnesota at Milwaukee: Wolves trying to stay out of play-in, Bucks trying to move closer to No. 5 seed.
LA Lakers at Oklahoma City: Lakers seeking a two-game sweep of trip to OKC ... and then Luka Doncic goes to Dallas on Wednesday.
Golden State at Phoenix: Suns need a big finish to have any chance. Warriors hoping for home-court in Round 1.
San Antonio at LA Clippers: One thing to note; the Spurs’ Chris Paul is still on track to become the second-oldest player to start 82 games, which would be an amazing story.
New Orleans at Brooklyn: No playoff impact.
National TV schedule
Tuesday has a TNT doubleheader, with New York-Boston and Golden State-Phoenix. There's an ESPN doubleheader on Wednesday — Lakers-Mavericks for Luka Doncic's return to Dallas, followed by Denver-Sacramento.
Betting odds
Oklahoma City (+175) is favored to win the NBA title, according to BetMGM Sportsbook, followed closely by Boston (+200), Cleveland (+500), then the Lakers (+1000), Golden State (+1200) and Denver (+1600). Nobody else has odds shorter than 35-1.
Key dates
April 11 — All 30 NBA teams play.
April 12 — No games.
April 13 — All 30 NBA teams play, end of regular season.
April 15 — The No. 7 and No. 8 finishers in both conferences play to start the play-in tournament. Winners are the No. 7 seed for the playoffs; losers will host play-in elimination games on April 18.
April 16 — The No. 9 and No. 10 finishers in both conferences play. Winners move on to April 18; losers are finished for the season.
April 18 — The April 15 game losers play host to the April 16 game winners. Winners are the No. 8 seed for the playoffs; losers are finished for the season.
April 19 — NBA playoffs begin.
Numbers watch
—The NBA record for total 3-pointers made in a season fell on Sunday. Boston also has broken the NBA's single-season records for 3-pointers made and attempted by a team.
—For the first time, the NBA could have three players make 300 3-pointers in a season. Detroit's Malik Beasley has 305, Minnesota's Anthony Edwards has 303 and Golden State’s Stephen Curry has 294. Edwards and Beasley are the fourth and fifth players with 300 3s in a season in NBA history. Curry has five seasons of 300 3s or more, James Harden has one and Klay Thompson has one.
—There have been four instances of teammates each having 250 3-pointers in a season: Curry and Thompson did it four times when they were the Warriors' “Splash Brothers.” Boston could have three players reach that number this season: Derrick White is already there with 258, Payton Pritchard has 246 and Jayson Tatum has 243.
Stat of the day
The Thunder are on the brink of setting an NBA record for point differential. They’re winning by an average of 12.5 points per game; the record is 12.3 by the 1971-72 Lakers.
Oklahoma City has outscored teams by 977 points so far; three teams — the 1971-72 Lakers (1,007), the 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks (1,005) and the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (1,004) are the only teams to enjoy a 1,000-point differential over a full season.