DEAL OR NO DEAL?
Patrick Creighton: Astros trading Kyle Tucker? Stop it
Feb 13, 2018, 7:20 am
Kyle Tucker is not going anywhere. MLB.com
Over the weekend, a report came out that the Houston Astros were having trade discussions with the Miami Marlins for C J.T. Realmuto. According to the report, from Sirius XM’s Craig Mish, the Marlins want stud prospect Kyle Tucker in any such deal, and that the Astros aren’t opposed to dealing the top-15 minor leaguer in a deal.
My first reaction to this was….. Shenanigans.
Upon further review my reaction is…. Still Shenanigans.
Kyle Tucker is the Astros No. 2 prospect in their system. He was deemed “untouchable” in the Gerrit Cole trade talks. Why would he suddenly be in play now, especially for a less accomplished player?
This isn’t to be disparaging of Realmuto. The soon-to-be 27 year old catcher turned in a career year in 2017, hitting .278/.332/.451 with 17 HR 65 RBI and 31 2B in 532 AB as the primary backstop for the Marlins. He’s also making a team friendly $2.9M in his first year of arbitration. He is considered to be a player on the rise. That doesn’t always mean that career trajectory will continue to point up, but it’s obviously a positive.
However, if we look at Astros’ GM Jeff Luhnow’s recent track record, he doesn’t deal players he thinks are going to be studs. Case in point – Alex Bregman. Bregman’s name was mentioned in every trade scenario that the Astros were reported to be in for over a year. Luhnow was firm in his commitment to not trading him because he believed Bregs would be a star player for a decade or longer. He waited out the trade market for a starting pitcher, ultimately landing Justin Verlander without surrendering his budding star 3B.
If Luhnow feels the same way about Tucker, and considering his past stances on Tucker not being available in deals there is no reason to presume that he doesn’t, then there’s no way Kyle Tucker is being traded for anyone.
Another thing to keep in mind is the guy who broke the story is Craig Mish. Mish, to his credit, also broke the story that Realmuto wanted to be traded to begin with. Clearly, his info is coming from the Miami side of the equation. Miami may want to get Kyle Tucker in return, but that doesn’t mean Luhnow intends to acquiesce to their request.
I’m not suggesting the Astros don’t have interest. There’s plenty of reasons to be interested in Realmuto. Maybe the Astros think McCann can be a mentor to him as well. There is, however, the issue of how often Realmuto would play.
Right now Brian McCann is the Astros starting catcher. He’s 33, he’s making $17M ($11.5M of which the Astros are paying) and coming off a productive season in which he hit .241/.323/.436 with 18 HR and 62 RBI in only 349 ABs. McCann is also a good defensive catcher known for working well with young pitchers.
This, however, should be a legitimate question to ask: Why would the Astros deal for a player who would be a part timer by trading away a bigger prospect who could legitimately be a full time player for Houston in the OF within 12 months (if not 3)?
Consider that Realmuto is already into first year arbitration, and Tucker has (likely) three seasons from when he’s called up to hit Arb 1. Realmuto plays a position that the Astros have 2 legitimate players and Tucker can be a starting RF or LF on arrival.
There’s too many parts here that don’t make sense and don’t follow previously established patterns of Luhnow or the Astros. Interest in Realmuto? Maybe. Trading Kyle Tucker for him? Don’t believe the hype.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
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