CREIGHT EXPECTATIONS
Patrick Creighton: Melo to Houston may be inevitable, but it’s still a really bad idea
Jul 17, 2018, 11:26 am
Carmelo Anthony is a bad idea. Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images
All the revisionist history in the world cannot change the truth about the past. When it comes to betting on someone’s future, their past is all we have to go on. History shows it’s a very good indicator.
As more and more reports continue to surface regarding the impending marriage of the Houston Rockets and Carmelo Anthony, I’ve noticed many folks in the media changing their tunes on Melo, accepting his inevitable presence on the Rockets. Their tones about him have changed, their demeanor towards him has changed, and they are noticeably omitting important facts about him to portray him in a better light.
One of the most common ones I’ve noticed is the idea that Melo & his former coach with the Knicks (and proposed new coach with the Rockets) Mike D’Antoni clashed, and MDA stepped down/resigned midseason. It’s a very general way of explaining things in a manner to make Melo look better. It’s hardly an accurate depiction of what happened.
It leaves out the very important details of why Melo & MDA clashed, which was 100% on Melo. Melo refused to play D’Antoni’s system, and was not only defiant about it, but marched into the head coach’s office with buddy Chauncey Billups in tow to demand that MDA scrap the up-tempo pace to play Melo’s way. Carmelo never wanted to give the offense a chance, never wanted to be coached in it, he just wanted to give his own orders.
It also omits why D’Antoni resigned as head coach of the Knicks. D’Antoni’s resignation immediately followed an ultimatum given by Anthony to Knicks management that they needed to get rid of D’Antoni or he would demand to be traded.
Melo even admitted to the media to dogging it while playing for MDA, and how he was trying harder “especially on the defensive end” after MDA had stepped aside.
None of these things are new, or surprises. They have all been reported on and can easily be found by using your friend Google.
Carmelo demanded his way out of Denver, to only go to New York. He held the team hostage the entire season until Knicks owner James Dolan decided to hand away all the young players on the team for Anthony, overstepping his team president Donnie Walsh who was waiting out the Nuggets to lower their demands, recognizing they had no leverage.
Melo then demanded the Knicks get rid of D’Antoni. Melo also refused to accept or work with Jeremy Lin, who Melo resented for being successful while he was injured and unable to play.
Melo then got his wish to play for a contender when the Knicks traded him to Oklahoma City last season, but he never seemed to mesh with Russell Westbrook and Paul George, and found himself getting benched frequently in the playoffs. After the season he accused the team of having no real plan for him, and that he wouldn’t make any additional sacrifices for the team’s benefit.
Those hoping for Anthony to be successful in a “catch and shoot” role similar to what Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson did, should be reminded that after the season Carmelo said he doesn’t think he “can be effective as that type of player.”
The only thing that seems to be permeating through each suddenly more positive Melo piece popping up online is the concept that somehow, someway, after a career of being a selfish turd who never made players around him better, all of the sudden because he’s coming to Houston, he will change his stripes, be a good boy, play nice, and everything will work out.
Daryl Morey chasing the fish that got away isn’t going to have a Disney fairy tale ending. It’s only going to have disappointment. Lots and lots of disappointment.
That much is inevitable.
Patrick Creighton hosts “LateHits” weeknights 7-9p on ESPN 97.5 Houston; “Straight Heat” weekdays 4-7p CT on SB Nation Radio. Follow him on Twitter: @pcreighton1
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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