DRAWING THE LINE
Patrick Creighton: Texans early offseason is a failure
Mar 20, 2018, 7:53 am
The Texans should have never moved on from Duane Brown without a plan. Tim Warner/Getty Images
It’s always important to me to be honest, fair, and transparent in everything I say on SportsMap 94.1 FM, SB Nation Radio, or write here on SportsMap.com. Everyone in Houston sports talk radio has a vested interest in the Texans success. We all want them to succeed; it makes our jobs easier and better. I want the Texans to win, and that’s why I’m frustrated with their offseason.
I love the additions of CB Aaron Colvin and Tyrann Mathieu. Colvin is a terrific slot corner who is a sure tackler. Mathieu gives the Texans a ball hawking presence in a secondary that desperately needs one.
Last season only two teams passed less than 60% of the time, Arizona (58%) and Philadelphia (59%). One of those teams played with a lot of leads. Expanded further to teams playing minimum three or more WR sets – all but 10 teams ran at least 3 wide over 60% of the time.
In fact, add up among all the teams percentage of times they ran at least three potential receiver targets (3WR or more), and it is 63% leaguewide. That doesn’t include the 12 personnel groupings (1 RB, 2 TE) with 2 WRs, which adds another 19% of total plays.
Teams are throwing more than ever, and the more quality DBs a team has, the better.
Considering the Texans defense is expected to return a healthy JJ Watt, Whitney Mercilus, D.J. Reader, Christian Covington, and Kevin Johnson, this unit was expected to be strong, and is now stronger. I think its fair to say that the overwhelming sentiment regarding the Texans defense last year was that it was ravaged by injuries or it would have been a strong unit.
While I’m happy the defense looks good on paper, and the secondary was a major area of need this offseason, job 1 was still the offensive line. This is where the airing of my grievances cannot wait for Festivus.
Last season, the Texans had the worst line in football. They surrendered 253 quarterback pressures, by far the most in the league (Arizona was second worst with 217). They tried 14 different line combinations in 16 games. They used five different starters at left tackle. They had a contract dispute with their best offensive lineman in Duane Brown, and then traded him away with no plan of succession.
To put this in perspective, Pro Football Focus uses a grading system to show the effectiveness of OL. Duane Brown, despite not having played a single snap in the offseason or preseason and missing six weeks in a dispute, then changing teams and having to learn new teammates and new schemes, graded out at 77.9. That is the high end of average. If he had an offseason and didn’t change teams, it would easily be expected he would grade above average and at least an 80 grade if not more.
The members of the Texans offensive line last season graded as follows:
C Nick Martin -- 44.9. Poor.
C/G Greg Mancz -- 39. Poor.
G Xavier Sua’Filo -- 35.8. Poor.
G/T Jeff Allen -- 38.4. Poor.
T Chris Clark -- 37.7. Poor.
T Breno Giacomini -- 32.7. Poor.
T Julien Davenport -- 47.6. Poor.
T Kendall Lamm -- 53.6. Poor.
Clearly, the "chuck it against the wall and see what sticks" plan for the offensive line failed in 2017.
In free agency, the only LT who was worth signing was Nate Solder, formerly of the Patriots. With $63M in cap space, the Texans could not afford to be outbid for him, yet that’s exactly what happened. Solder’s PFF grade for 2017 was 75.7, average. He got off to a slow start due to injury, and was significantly better as the season went on. Keep in mind, however, they could have redone Duane Brown’s deal for less than what Solder got on the open market, and Brown is a superior player.
As of today, the guys competing for the LT spot will be Julien Davenport and Jeff Allen. Allen, as you may recall, was shifted to LT Week 13 by Bill O’Brien as he vainly searched for a combination that would be successful.
The moves the Texans have made on the offensive line shouldn’t get you excited. I wish that wasn’t the case, but the whole being honest, fair and transparent thing is killing me here.
Let’s start with Zach Fulton, since he’s the best of the 3 OL the Texans have signed thus far. Fulton plays both guard and center, and depending on who you listen to (NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport says he will play center for the Texans, the Houston Chronicle’s John McClain says he will play guard), he could be playing either spot for Houston. Fulton graded out at 68.8 per PFF last season, which they list as below average, but he was also the #14 Center in their rankings, so that makes him league average.
Senio Kelemete spent last season as a backup in New Orleans who was eventually pressed into starting eight games. He played every position last season except center. The Texans are paying him like a backup (3 yrs/$12M total potential value). He graded last season at 48.3 by PFF, poor.
The wild card is T Seantrel Henderson. A talented player with issues, Henderson was terrific his rookie season at RT for Buffalo but has been diagnosed with Crohn’s Disease, has had multiple surgeries on his intestines as a result, and has been suspended two times by the NFL for violations of the substance abuse policy (he said he smoked weed to deal with the pain from Crohn’s). Crohn’s is a very serious disease. He has also one failed drug test from being out of the league for at least one year.
While Henderson impressed his rookie season in 2014, he’s only started one game over the past two seasons due to his various issues. Henderson is primarily a RT and signed a one year, ‘'prove it" type deal that could be worth up to $4M. It’s a flyer signing with potential upside. Despite limited playing time, he graded a 69.3 (high end of the below average marker) by PFF. Henderson also played the right side in college at Miami, so he is unlikely to be a LT candidate.
So far, the Texans are taking the "chuck it against the wall and see what sticks" approach to the offensive line again. This was a huge failure last year, but they are hoping for better results this coming season.
Considering the amount of cap space the Texans entered the offseason with, and the fact they have played 14 quarterbacks over Bill O’Brien’s tenure (including four last season), protecting the QB was absolutely Job 1. Deshaun Watson is coming off an ACL tear, his trademark elusiveness and escapability are not guaranteed to return the way they were last season, and the team has no idea who will be protecting his blind side. They also don’t know who his backups will be (and they better not include Taylor Heinicke).
Losing Watson wrecked the season for the Texans last year. The line could never protect any of the others, who lacked Watson’s spectacular ability to avoid the rush and break big plays. The poor line play also affected the team’s rushing success, as Lamar Miller had his worst season in five years as a starting RB.
The Texans lost battles routinely at the line of scrimmage on the offensive side of the ball. Improving the OL and getting a bona fide LT to anchor it were the biggest and most glaring needs this team had.
So far, I can’t say they have come close to addressing them.
Patrick Creighton is the host of “Nate & Creight” heard 1-3pm Mon-Fri on SportsMap 94.1FM, and “Sports & Shenanigans” heard 12-5p CT Sundays on SB Nation Radio. Follow him on Twitter: @pcreighton1
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.