Creight Expectations
Patrick Creighton: Will Tony Kemp finally get a real shot with Astros?
May 24, 2018, 6:40 am
Tony Kemp deserves a real shot for the Astros. Bob Levey/Getty Images
Back in 2014, the Astros has a 22 year old prospect they drafted in the 5th round the year before who was slicing and sprinting his way through the team’s minor league system.
Tony Kemp was a small 2B out of Vanderbilt, who managed to go from Low-A Tri-City in the New York Penn League to Double-A Corpus Christi in a season and a half. While not a home run hitter, his blazing speed and bat control showed him to be a player who hit for a strong average while generating extra-base hits, and he also displayed a keen eye at the plate.
His final stat line at age 22 between High-A Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi:
.316 AVG .411 OBP .859 OPS
8 HR 58 RBI 121 Runs Scored 30 Doubles 8 Triples 41 Stolen Bases
For those of you wondering – that’s one hell of a year. Kemp was a player.
The Astros, to their credit, knew Kemp could play, but they had a dilemma. They already had a small second baseman that could hit like a champ for high averages, get extra base hits and steal bases. They certainly weren’t about to ask him to change positions. So they began experimenting with Kemp.
As 2015 evolved, Kemp advanced his way from Double-A Corpus to Triple-A Fresno. He also began to see more time in the outfield. Kemp has incredible speed but an average at best arm. However, his ability to go get it defensively saw him make a career high 27 starts in center field, as well as five more in left. Kemp continued to hit, blowing up at Corpus to hit .358 in 50 games before his promotion and a solid .273 at Fresno afterwards.
To be fair, Kemp doesn’t have a great arm for the outfield. However, he rarely makes mental mistakes, rarely commits errors, and is noted for his hard work and hustle.
In 2016, Kemp continued to hit at Fresno, slashing a .306/.389/.396 line with a .785 OPS. Those solid numbers got him a call up as a bench player to the big league team, where he didn’t hit well but did display his eye at the plate.
In 2017, Kemp was a player to watch for the team. Kemp tore up Fresno to the tune of .329/.375/.470 with an .845 OPS while having his best power season in the minors with 10 HRs, 23 doubles and 9 triples. He also stole 24 bases. Kemp had proven everything he needed to prove at the minor league level, but the Astros lineup was so strong in 2017, he was merely a September call up, receiving only 39 sporadic ABs with the big league club.
Before being called up May 16, Kemp was again tearing up triple-A pitching, hitting .335/.407/.435 with an .841 OPS in 38 games with the Grizzlies. He also scored 33 runs while banging out six doubles and five triples in 161 ABs. Kemp has also stolen 13 bases a month and a half while only being caught twice.
So what is left for Kemp to prove? Well, nothing. That’s the problem.
As baseball, and particularly the Astros, shift to a more analytical model of evaluation, players like Kemp get devalued. Analytics favor power hitters, and downplay the value of the stolen base. Speed is less desirable than homers in that model. Kemp has speed in spades but not much power. He’s exactly the kind of player analytics minded executives discount.
However, Kemp is a proven commodity in the minors. He has hit and fielded at every level, he’s been a model citizen, is recognized for his terrific work ethic and leadership. He has earned his shot.
With Jake Marisnick being optioned (he is back now due to Josh Reddick's injury) due to poor performance and Derek Fisher struggling badly at the plate (batting .176 with 37 Ks in 74 ABs), it’s time for A.J. Hinch and the Astros to give Tony Kemp his long overdue shot at regular playing time.
High average/high on base hitters are often undervalued. On a team like the Astros with four top hitters, a player like Kemp should be welcomed. He gives them a guy to drive in. So far, in his first 15 at-bats, he is hitting .400 with 6 RBI and a stolen base.
Sometimes the analytics can be overrated. A blend of analytical data, traditional evaluation and common sense will always work best. Tony Kemp can play. Here’s hoping he gets a real shot and makes the most of it.
Patrick Creighton hosts “Late Hits” weeknights 7-9p on ESPN 97.5 Houston; “Straight Heat” weeknights 9p-12a CT & “Nate & Creight” Sundays 12-5p CT on SB Nation Radio/SportsMap 94.1 Houston. Follow him on Twitter: @pcreighton1
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
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Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.