Creight Expectations
Patrick Creighton: Will Tony Kemp finally get a real shot with Astros?
May 24, 2018, 6:40 am
Back in 2014, the Astros has a 22 year old prospect they drafted in the 5th round the year before who was slicing and sprinting his way through the team’s minor league system.
Tony Kemp was a small 2B out of Vanderbilt, who managed to go from Low-A Tri-City in the New York Penn League to Double-A Corpus Christi in a season and a half. While not a home run hitter, his blazing speed and bat control showed him to be a player who hit for a strong average while generating extra-base hits, and he also displayed a keen eye at the plate.
His final stat line at age 22 between High-A Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi:
.316 AVG .411 OBP .859 OPS
8 HR 58 RBI 121 Runs Scored 30 Doubles 8 Triples 41 Stolen Bases
For those of you wondering – that’s one hell of a year. Kemp was a player.
The Astros, to their credit, knew Kemp could play, but they had a dilemma. They already had a small second baseman that could hit like a champ for high averages, get extra base hits and steal bases. They certainly weren’t about to ask him to change positions. So they began experimenting with Kemp.
As 2015 evolved, Kemp advanced his way from Double-A Corpus to Triple-A Fresno. He also began to see more time in the outfield. Kemp has incredible speed but an average at best arm. However, his ability to go get it defensively saw him make a career high 27 starts in center field, as well as five more in left. Kemp continued to hit, blowing up at Corpus to hit .358 in 50 games before his promotion and a solid .273 at Fresno afterwards.
To be fair, Kemp doesn’t have a great arm for the outfield. However, he rarely makes mental mistakes, rarely commits errors, and is noted for his hard work and hustle.
In 2016, Kemp continued to hit at Fresno, slashing a .306/.389/.396 line with a .785 OPS. Those solid numbers got him a call up as a bench player to the big league team, where he didn’t hit well but did display his eye at the plate.
In 2017, Kemp was a player to watch for the team. Kemp tore up Fresno to the tune of .329/.375/.470 with an .845 OPS while having his best power season in the minors with 10 HRs, 23 doubles and 9 triples. He also stole 24 bases. Kemp had proven everything he needed to prove at the minor league level, but the Astros lineup was so strong in 2017, he was merely a September call up, receiving only 39 sporadic ABs with the big league club.
Before being called up May 16, Kemp was again tearing up triple-A pitching, hitting .335/.407/.435 with an .841 OPS in 38 games with the Grizzlies. He also scored 33 runs while banging out six doubles and five triples in 161 ABs. Kemp has also stolen 13 bases a month and a half while only being caught twice.
So what is left for Kemp to prove? Well, nothing. That’s the problem.
As baseball, and particularly the Astros, shift to a more analytical model of evaluation, players like Kemp get devalued. Analytics favor power hitters, and downplay the value of the stolen base. Speed is less desirable than homers in that model. Kemp has speed in spades but not much power. He’s exactly the kind of player analytics minded executives discount.
However, Kemp is a proven commodity in the minors. He has hit and fielded at every level, he’s been a model citizen, is recognized for his terrific work ethic and leadership. He has earned his shot.
With Jake Marisnick being optioned (he is back now due to Josh Reddick's injury) due to poor performance and Derek Fisher struggling badly at the plate (batting .176 with 37 Ks in 74 ABs), it’s time for A.J. Hinch and the Astros to give Tony Kemp his long overdue shot at regular playing time.
High average/high on base hitters are often undervalued. On a team like the Astros with four top hitters, a player like Kemp should be welcomed. He gives them a guy to drive in. So far, in his first 15 at-bats, he is hitting .400 with 6 RBI and a stolen base.
Sometimes the analytics can be overrated. A blend of analytical data, traditional evaluation and common sense will always work best. Tony Kemp can play. Here’s hoping he gets a real shot and makes the most of it.
Patrick Creighton hosts “Late Hits” weeknights 7-9p on ESPN 97.5 Houston; “Straight Heat” weeknights 9p-12a CT & “Nate & Creight” Sundays 12-5p CT on SB Nation Radio/SportsMap 94.1 Houston. Follow him on Twitter: @pcreighton1
Lamar Jackson broke the NFL career rushing record for quarterbacks in Baltimore's 31-2 victory over the Houston Texans on Wednesday, bolstering his case for MVP as the Ravens moved closer to the AFC North title.
*Don't miss the video below as the guys from Texans on Tap react to the game live on YouTube!
Jackson threw for 168 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 87 yards and another score. He pushed his career rushing total to 6,110 to move past Michael Vick, who had 6,109 in his 13-year career.
The Ravens (11-5) have already wrapped up their third straight playoff berth and need a victory over Cleveland next week to win the division over Pittsburgh. The Steelers dropped a third straight with a loss to Kansas City on Wednesday.
Jackson, the MVP last season and in 2019, put on a show rivaled only by the spectacular Super Bowl-caliber halftime performance by Beyoncé to give Baltimore its third straight win. And he needed just more than three quarters to do it, giving way to Josh Johnson with about 10 minutes left and the game long decided.
Jackson threw 9- and 1-yard TD passes and was not touched on a 48-yard scoring scamper that made it 24-2 in the third quarter.
Derrick Henry ran for 147 yards and set the Ravens season record with his 16th touchdown on a 2-yard run in the first quarter. He eclipsed Ray Rice (2011) and Mark Ingram (2019).
Baltimore dominated a Houston team reeling after losing dynamic receiver Tank Dell to a season-ending knee injury Saturday.
The AFC South champs struggled to finish drives and got their only points on a safety in the second quarter. C.J. Stroud threw for 185 yards, but was sacked five times and threw an interception and Joe Mixon managed just 26 yards rushing as the Texans (9-7) lost a second straight.
Rookie Kamari Lassiter dropped Henry for a 4-yard loss for the safety with about 10 minutes left in the first half to cut the lead to 10-2.
Dameon Pierce then returned the kickoff 45 yards to get the Texans to their 43. But they came away empty when Mixon was stopped on the 1 after grabbing a short pass on fourth-and-3.
Jackson then orchestrated a 99-yard drive to pad the lead. He scrambled to evade the rush and found Mark Andrews for a 67-yard gain to get the Ravens in the red zone with just more than two minutes left in the first half.
Isaiah Likely’s 9-yard TD reception two plays later made it 17-2. It was the first 17-2 halftime score in NFL history.
Kyle Hamilton intercepted Stroud's pass on the first drive of the second half. Two plays later, Jackson’s long TD run made it 24-2.
He set the rushing record on a 6-yard run on Baltimore’s next drive. Later in the drive, he scrambled to escape several defenders before finding Andrews for a 1-yard score to leave Baltimore up 31-2.
Ravens RB Rasheen Ali injured his hip in the third quarter and didn’t return. … Texans TE Cade Stover returned after missing two games following an emergency appendectomy.
The Ravens host the Browns, and the Texans visit the Titans next weekend. The game dates have yet to be determined.