Creight Expectations
Patrick Creighton: Will Tony Kemp finally get a real shot with Astros?
May 24, 2018, 6:40 am
Tony Kemp deserves a real shot for the Astros. Bob Levey/Getty Images
Back in 2014, the Astros has a 22 year old prospect they drafted in the 5th round the year before who was slicing and sprinting his way through the team’s minor league system.
Tony Kemp was a small 2B out of Vanderbilt, who managed to go from Low-A Tri-City in the New York Penn League to Double-A Corpus Christi in a season and a half. While not a home run hitter, his blazing speed and bat control showed him to be a player who hit for a strong average while generating extra-base hits, and he also displayed a keen eye at the plate.
His final stat line at age 22 between High-A Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi:
.316 AVG .411 OBP .859 OPS
8 HR 58 RBI 121 Runs Scored 30 Doubles 8 Triples 41 Stolen Bases
For those of you wondering – that’s one hell of a year. Kemp was a player.
The Astros, to their credit, knew Kemp could play, but they had a dilemma. They already had a small second baseman that could hit like a champ for high averages, get extra base hits and steal bases. They certainly weren’t about to ask him to change positions. So they began experimenting with Kemp.
As 2015 evolved, Kemp advanced his way from Double-A Corpus to Triple-A Fresno. He also began to see more time in the outfield. Kemp has incredible speed but an average at best arm. However, his ability to go get it defensively saw him make a career high 27 starts in center field, as well as five more in left. Kemp continued to hit, blowing up at Corpus to hit .358 in 50 games before his promotion and a solid .273 at Fresno afterwards.
To be fair, Kemp doesn’t have a great arm for the outfield. However, he rarely makes mental mistakes, rarely commits errors, and is noted for his hard work and hustle.
In 2016, Kemp continued to hit at Fresno, slashing a .306/.389/.396 line with a .785 OPS. Those solid numbers got him a call up as a bench player to the big league team, where he didn’t hit well but did display his eye at the plate.
In 2017, Kemp was a player to watch for the team. Kemp tore up Fresno to the tune of .329/.375/.470 with an .845 OPS while having his best power season in the minors with 10 HRs, 23 doubles and 9 triples. He also stole 24 bases. Kemp had proven everything he needed to prove at the minor league level, but the Astros lineup was so strong in 2017, he was merely a September call up, receiving only 39 sporadic ABs with the big league club.
Before being called up May 16, Kemp was again tearing up triple-A pitching, hitting .335/.407/.435 with an .841 OPS in 38 games with the Grizzlies. He also scored 33 runs while banging out six doubles and five triples in 161 ABs. Kemp has also stolen 13 bases a month and a half while only being caught twice.
So what is left for Kemp to prove? Well, nothing. That’s the problem.
As baseball, and particularly the Astros, shift to a more analytical model of evaluation, players like Kemp get devalued. Analytics favor power hitters, and downplay the value of the stolen base. Speed is less desirable than homers in that model. Kemp has speed in spades but not much power. He’s exactly the kind of player analytics minded executives discount.
However, Kemp is a proven commodity in the minors. He has hit and fielded at every level, he’s been a model citizen, is recognized for his terrific work ethic and leadership. He has earned his shot.
With Jake Marisnick being optioned (he is back now due to Josh Reddick's injury) due to poor performance and Derek Fisher struggling badly at the plate (batting .176 with 37 Ks in 74 ABs), it’s time for A.J. Hinch and the Astros to give Tony Kemp his long overdue shot at regular playing time.
High average/high on base hitters are often undervalued. On a team like the Astros with four top hitters, a player like Kemp should be welcomed. He gives them a guy to drive in. So far, in his first 15 at-bats, he is hitting .400 with 6 RBI and a stolen base.
Sometimes the analytics can be overrated. A blend of analytical data, traditional evaluation and common sense will always work best. Tony Kemp can play. Here’s hoping he gets a real shot and makes the most of it.
Patrick Creighton hosts “Late Hits” weeknights 7-9p on ESPN 97.5 Houston; “Straight Heat” weeknights 9p-12a CT & “Nate & Creight” Sundays 12-5p CT on SB Nation Radio/SportsMap 94.1 Houston. Follow him on Twitter: @pcreighton1
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
It would be kind of funny if Christian Walker simply decided he wanted to check out what the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo is all about. “Ow, my left oblique feels kind of sore. How about sending me to Houston for the weekend to get an MRI?” That would be quite a bodacious move, and total bull (props to you if you see what I did there). Of course, faking pain is not the case, and the Astros now cross their fingers that their 60-million dollar free agent signee doesn’t start his Houston tenure on the injured list. It certainly isn’t encouraging to know that Walker missed about 20 percent of last season with a left oblique injury. In 2021 he spent two stints on the IL because of right oblique problems. Obviously the Astros want return on their investment as quickly and as substantially as possible, but they would be fools not to treat this conservatively. Walker turns 34 years old the second day of the regular season. No one should be having night sweats just yet over the possibility that Walker is about to become Jose Abreu 2.0. Abreu was 36 when he debuted with the Astros. However, it is accurate to note that Abreu had a significantly higher WAR in his last season before joining the Astros than did Walker.
If Walker turns out to be sidelined for a month, that would mean the Astros need a first baseman for the first week and a half or so of the regular season. Let the drumbeat for Cam Smith begin! The sample size remains laughably small, but Smith continues to speak softly and swing a very, very big stick. If you’ll accept a .636 batting average as pretty good. It’s only 11 at bats. But yowza! If Walker is to be down into the regular season, and Smith keeps rocketing line drives in the Grapefruit League, the plot thickens. Smith only has 19 at bats above single-A. That’s 19 more than Albert Pujols had when the St. Louis Cardinals decided to have him in their lineup to begin the 2001 season. Albert did fairly well. He’s merely the greatest first baseman in National League history.
The much more conservative approach would be a platoon with Jon Singleton in the lineup against most right-handed pitchers and whoever is not catching between Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini playing against lefties. Zach Dezenzo would be another option. Cam Smith is not an option to play first base, at least not early in 2025. Just in the last few days, he’s started doing some outfield drills because of the possible pathway to the big club in right field that I wrote about last week. Cam Smith is not going to make a huge jump to the big leagues and basically try to learn a new position on the fly there. However, Isaac Paredes owns a first baseman’s glove. Paredes started 13 games at first for the Rays last season. He made 40 starts total at first over the last three seasons, his only big league starts at first, after a grand total of two at first in the minors. Paredes temporarily moving to first would open up third base for Smith. Just sayin’...
What's in a name?
File this more under trivial than trivia, but here goes. When Isaac Paredes takes the field in the season opener, he officially becomes the third Paredes in Astros’ history. Utility man Jimmy Paredes got some run during the franchise deep in the abyss stage from 2010-13. Relief pitcher Enoli Paredes got 32 1/3 innings in over three seasons 2020-22. There have been only six guys named Paredes in MLB history. Come March 27 the Astros will have had half of them.
On the farm
MLB Pipeline this week released its in order ranking of the Astros’ top 30 prospects. Cam Smith is the obvious number one. Brice Matthews is number two. Drafted as a shortstop, Matthews has a better route to the bigs as a second baseman, given the Astros’ weak depth chart there with Jose Altuve becoming primarily a left fielder. Outfielder Jacob Melton is third. Considering the present state of the Astros’ outfield and that Melton turns 25 this September, if worth a darn, he should play his way on to the 26-man roster at some point this year. Catcher Walker Yanek ranks fourth. He was the Astros’ first round pick last July. Dezenzo rounds out the top five.
We’re under three weeks until Opening Day. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!