Carmelo Anthony is a great pickup for the Rockets, especially at the price. Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
On Monday New York Times basketball insider Marc Stein tweeted that Oklahoma City Small Forward Carmelo Anthony intends to sign with the Houston Rockets once he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Anthony is still waiting to be formally traded to the Atlanta Hawks, who then intend to waive 10-time all star.
The Rockets, who were one win away last season from reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 1995 entered the off-season deep at the small forward position. Being an integral cog on a 65-win team will get you noticed by the league, however. By the time the initial free agent scrum dust settled, Houston's starting small forward, Trevor Ariza, had cashed in out in Phoenix and his backup, Luc Mbah a Moute had returned to the Clippers. Having lost out on both the LeBron James and Paul George sweepstakes, the Rockets had suddenly gone from a team that was a piece away from true contention to a team looking to round out it's starting roster.
Meanwhile, the Thunder had spent their offseason letting Carmelo Anthony know that they weren't interested in a future involving him. Anthony simply didn't fit what the Thunder were trying to do, something that was dreadfully apparent to even the most casual basketball fan. Anthony's numbers dropped dramatically as a result. Once OKC had secured Paul George's return, Anthony became very expendable.
Roughly this time last summer, Rocket GM Daryl Morey was wiping the sweat from his brow at a white board trying to find the right trade formula to convince the Knicks to trade Anthony to the Rockets and Houston fans were overcome with anticipation. This time around, however, Morey's pursuit of the same player has been received with far less excitement and much more skepticism. Instead of seeing us possibly trading for the Knicks’ star centerpiece like last season, Rockets fans perceive Anthony as an aging, overpaid third set of hands that need to ball to be productive. There seems to be little buzz surrounding this all but certain upcoming acquisition as a result. It's a narrative based off of what was witnessed last season.
It's also false. Here’s why.
He’s the best small forward available
The Rockets were quick to stop the bleeding at the wing position with the signing of defensive specialist James Ennis, but Ennis was not on anyone’s “must grab” list. After striking out on LeBron and George, Houston immediately turned its focus toward trading for Nuggets wing Wilson Chandler, but were quickly outbid by Philadelphia. Suddenly the 3-spot market was all but barren. Now seemingly out of nowhere, the Rockets have gone from searching for possible trades to picking up a legitimate starting small forward that, even last season when he was at quite possibly his worst since his rookie year, can still average at least 16 points per game. It’s hard to luck out like that in the NBA. Speaking of scoring…
He can still shoot
Despite averaging just over 16 points per game, Anthony’s scoring ability has suddenly come into question. Yes, it was a significant decline from his previous season’s 22 ppg performance, but that was also on a team with very few other scoring options. Both his three-point and two-point field goal percentages have remained relatively identical throughout his career and last year was no exception. He was simply relied on less because he was playing with George and Russell Westbrook. And if you play with Westbrook, you are guaranteed to lose touches. Expect Anthony to be much more involved in the Rockets’ offense, with head coach Mike D’Antoni weaving his minutes into a beautifully efficient tapestry much like he did last season with James Harden and Chris Paul each having isolated floor time. And with the subsequent increase in open looks he’ll receive playing with Harden and Paul, it’s safe to expect a bounce back season.
He’s absolutely zero risk
If the Rockets were taking on some crazy super-max contract, this article would have a much different tone. The Hawks plan on waiving Anthony, however, so he’s guaranteed $27 million dollars whether he touches a basketball court next season or not. The Rockets plan to sign him for a league minimum $2.4 million dollars which still gives Houston the ability to use their mid-level exception to sign yet another player. If it works out, the Rockets will have deftly maneuvered the 2018 offseason and once again look like the smartest kids in the room while Morey buffs his second consecutive Executive of the Year award. If it implodes and Anthony looks like his OKC self, the Rockets can send him packing next offseason having lost nothing.
The bottom line is that, while Anthony isn’t LeBron or George, he’s an upgrade not only to what they have, but also what they lost. The Western Conference may have gotten stronger this offseason, but a lineup with James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela, Carmelo Anthony, and Eric Gordon is definitely a capable team that has the potential to set off more fireworks than last season’s 65-win team.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.