NFL gambling guide
Play Action or Pass Week 10: Keys of Life
Jerry Bo
Nov 11, 2017, 6:05 am
Jonathan Joseph and the Texans can't stop the Rams. Bob Levey/Getty Images
NFL Key Numbers:
Before heading into wagering this weekend, let's talk about the importance of key numbers when betting in the NFL.
The No. 3, is the most common number in football betting. Nearly nine percent of favorites win the game by three points. The No. 7, is the second most common. Games end on the lucky number 7 six percent of the time.
Other Key numbers are 4, 6, 10, and 14.
Games ending by 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 or 14-points: 29% of games
Games ending by 4, 6, 10, 14: 14% of games
Remember these key numbers, and look for opportunities to gain half points on or off these key numbers. If you see the juice going up on a line around the -135 mark, that is when you will see the change in the spread.
Teams receiving the most bets Week 10:
Patriots- 90%
Rams- 87%
Cowboys- 86%
Buccaneers- 74%
Giants- 71%
Plays
Browns +11
In the world of betting, the non-marquee/primetime games are where you can find value. The Browns are on the opposite side of attractive competitions. Football is a game of situations; The Lions are coming off two back to back primetime games vs. The Packers and Steelers; will they get up for this game? What's on deck for this team? Two divisional games, Road Trip to Chicago, then a home Thanksgiving matchup vs. the Vikings. Also, the Browns are coming off a bye. The Lions have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. The Lions should win this game and will be content with doing so by any margin. Take the Browns to keep it closer than most think.
Rams-11
This game matches up the #1 scoring offense (32 ppg) vs. the 30th ranked scoring defense (26 ppg). The Rams are 4-1 ATS in the last five games and 5-1 straight up. The Rams have quickly become must-watch TV. The team is exciting, and much has to do with the evolution of quarterback Jared Goff. LA has won their last three games all by double digits, and the defense has only given up 12.5 points. I just don't see how the Texans will move the ball vs. this defense, and if they go down early, I can't see Tom Savage bringing them back. Look for the Rams to put a drubbing on the Texans.
Action
Buffalo: +3
Vikings/ Redskins: Under 43
Steelers Team Total over: 27.5
Teasers 7 points:
Patriots -.5/ Panthers-2
Patriots -.5/ Rams-4
Pass
Cowboys+3
Pass on the Cowboys this week with the uncertainty behind the Elliott suspension. Curious to see how the team plays without the running back, and also I believe the Falcons will run the ball successfully vs. the Cowboys controlling the pace of the game.
Trendy
Every year since 2000, a team in the top three of net yards per play has made the Super Bowl. This year the Falcons, Jaguars, and Vikings fit the build. Not condoning in betting Blake Bortles to win a Super Bowl, but with a defense like that behind him and 40-1 odds, a hedge opportunity might be available with a bye week very possible in the playoffs. Jaguars schedule Chargers, Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Texans, 49ers, and Titans.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
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C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are looking for answers after their passing game couldn’t get going in a loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Houston’s passing attack had been a strength all season, and the Texans ranked fifth in yards passing per game through their first six games. But on Sunday at Lambeau Field, Stroud was limited to a career-low 86 yards in the 24-22 loss, which snapped a three-game winning streak.
Stroud was 10 of 21 and didn’t have a touchdown pass for the first time this season. The second-year player was under duress for much of the day and was sacked four times and hit seven other times.
“We have to go back to the drawing board and see what those issues were,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “As we watch the film, we’ll see what happened, starting for me the communication and just guys being on the details of the job.”
'Everything is on the table. We have to get it fixed' #Texans coach DeMeco Ryans on offensive line and if personnel changes are being contemplated @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/AwK0rqeU2z
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 21, 2024
The Texans scored a season-high 41 points in a win over New England a week earlier in which Stroud threw a season-best three touchdown passes despite being without star receiver Nico Collins.
They were unable to replicate that success Sunday with Collins out for the second of at least four games after a hamstring injury landed him on injured reserve.
Stefon Diggs led the team with five receptions against the Packers, but they only amounted to 23 yards. Tank Dell, who the Texans expected to step up with Collins out, was targeted four times but didn’t have a catch.
Stroud discussed the importance of getting Dell more involved in the offense.
“We have to find a way to try and get him the rock early and often and then go from there,” he said. “It has to be a focus for us, not only just him, but the whole offense clicking early. That is really my job to get the ball out on time and to where it is supposed to go. So yeah, that definitely has to be fixed.”
Ryans spoke about his confidence is getting Dell going.
'I have all the faith in Tank' #Texans coach DeMeco Ryans expressed confidence in Tank Dell ability to get back to making explosive plays again as he did as a rookie @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/bojBEx3lYo
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 21, 2024
What's working
The Texans have forced seven turnovers combined in their last two games after they hadn’t caused any in their previous three games.
Houston scored 16 points off three turnovers Sunday. The Texans had two interceptions and recovered a fumble on a punt. In their win over the Patriots, they scored 17 points off a season-high four turnovers.
What needs help
The Texans won’t get to where they want to be this season if Stroud doesn’t get back on track. Before Sunday, last year’s AP Offensive Rookie of the Year was averaging more than 262 yards passing a game, giving the team confidence that the problems in the passing game are fixable.
Ryans knows the line must give Stroud more time to throw and said the coaching staff will focus on improving in that area this week.
Stock up
RB Joe Mixon continued to shine Sunday in his second game back after missing three games with an ankle injury. Mixon, who is in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati, had 25 carries for 115 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay.
Mixon is confident the Texans will rebound this week if they quit making mistakes.
“Does it look I’m worried? I’m not worried at all,” he said. “Like I said, we got a ... good football team. At the end of the day, we are our own worst enemy.”
Stock down
Dell was unable to help Stroud get the passing game going. The second-year player had a solid rookie season with 709 yards receiving and seven touchdowns in 11 games before breaking his leg. But he hasn’t been able to build on that success this year and has just 194 yards receiving with one score in six games.
Injuries
LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), LB Henry To’oTo’o (concussion), CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder) and S Jimmie Ward (groin) all missed Sunday’s game and it’s unclear if any of these starters can return this week.
Key number
3 — Safety Calen Bullock had his third interception Sunday to tie Dunta Robinson and Jumal Rolle for most interceptions by a rookie in franchise history through the first seven games. He leads NFL rookies in interceptions this season and is tied for third-most among all players.
Next steps
The AFC South-leading Texans (5-2) return to division play Sunday when they host the second-place Colts (4-3), who have won two in a row and four of five.