NFL gambling guide
Play Action or Pass Week 10: Keys of Life
Jerry Bo
Nov 11, 2017, 6:05 am
Jonathan Joseph and the Texans can't stop the Rams. Bob Levey/Getty Images
NFL Key Numbers:
Before heading into wagering this weekend, let's talk about the importance of key numbers when betting in the NFL.
The No. 3, is the most common number in football betting. Nearly nine percent of favorites win the game by three points. The No. 7, is the second most common. Games end on the lucky number 7 six percent of the time.
Other Key numbers are 4, 6, 10, and 14.
Games ending by 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 or 14-points: 29% of games
Games ending by 4, 6, 10, 14: 14% of games
Remember these key numbers, and look for opportunities to gain half points on or off these key numbers. If you see the juice going up on a line around the -135 mark, that is when you will see the change in the spread.
Teams receiving the most bets Week 10:
Patriots- 90%
Rams- 87%
Cowboys- 86%
Buccaneers- 74%
Giants- 71%
Plays
Browns +11
In the world of betting, the non-marquee/primetime games are where you can find value. The Browns are on the opposite side of attractive competitions. Football is a game of situations; The Lions are coming off two back to back primetime games vs. The Packers and Steelers; will they get up for this game? What's on deck for this team? Two divisional games, Road Trip to Chicago, then a home Thanksgiving matchup vs. the Vikings. Also, the Browns are coming off a bye. The Lions have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. The Lions should win this game and will be content with doing so by any margin. Take the Browns to keep it closer than most think.
Rams-11
This game matches up the #1 scoring offense (32 ppg) vs. the 30th ranked scoring defense (26 ppg). The Rams are 4-1 ATS in the last five games and 5-1 straight up. The Rams have quickly become must-watch TV. The team is exciting, and much has to do with the evolution of quarterback Jared Goff. LA has won their last three games all by double digits, and the defense has only given up 12.5 points. I just don't see how the Texans will move the ball vs. this defense, and if they go down early, I can't see Tom Savage bringing them back. Look for the Rams to put a drubbing on the Texans.
Action
Buffalo: +3
Vikings/ Redskins: Under 43
Steelers Team Total over: 27.5
Teasers 7 points:
Patriots -.5/ Panthers-2
Patriots -.5/ Rams-4
Pass
Cowboys+3
Pass on the Cowboys this week with the uncertainty behind the Elliott suspension. Curious to see how the team plays without the running back, and also I believe the Falcons will run the ball successfully vs. the Cowboys controlling the pace of the game.
Trendy
Every year since 2000, a team in the top three of net yards per play has made the Super Bowl. This year the Falcons, Jaguars, and Vikings fit the build. Not condoning in betting Blake Bortles to win a Super Bowl, but with a defense like that behind him and 40-1 odds, a hedge opportunity might be available with a bye week very possible in the playoffs. Jaguars schedule Chargers, Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Texans, 49ers, and Titans.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
After a two-game sweep of the Rockies in Mexico City, a heart-thumping, extra-inning win Tuesday night over the Guardians in Minute Maid Park, the surprising demotion of first baseman Jose Abreu to the bottom rung of the minor leagues and the call-up of fan favorite rookie slugger Joey Loperfido … suddenly the Astros season seems turned around.
Even if their record still is 10-19 and they remain dead last in the American League West.
Ah, but only six games behind the first-place Seattle Mariners. That’s just a hot streak away.
The Astros are in it … and right now aren’t you thinking to win it?
One thing is for sure. There is no doubt who is running the Astros ship and is the voice in owner Jim Crane’s ear. It’s Dana Brown, the general manager.
Since the last pitch of the Astros disappointing 2023 season when they “only” made it to Game 7 of the ALCS, Brown has made the 2024 Astros team in his mind’s image.
Gone is last year’s manager Dusty Baker with whom Brown fussed and fought with over Baker’s insistence on playing weak-hitting Martin Maldonado over rookie Yanier Diaz.
Baker resigned (thank you for saving us the trouble) and was out the door shortly after the season ended.
Gone, too, is Maldonado. The Astros never made a serious attempt to keep him in Houston.
Now Abreu is dispatched, too. After an April of historic batting futility, Abreu, a 37-year-old veteran, consented to go back to the minors to find his batting stroke. He leaves the Astros, for public consumption temporarily, hitting .099 with no home runs and 3 RBI in 71 at bats.
The Astros signed Abreu to a $58.5 million, three-year contract before last season – before Brown arrived in Houston. Crane offered the megabuck contract at the urging of then-de facto general manager Jeff Bagwell. At this time last year, it was an open question, who is the real Crane-whisperer, newly hired Brown or Astros legend Bagwell?
Next question?
If Baker had been retained and Brown held sidelined in key decisions, it’s likely that Maldonado would be in the Astros lineup and Diaz again the catcher-in-waiting. With fans still frustrated up to here.
Maldonado eventually signed with the Chicago White Sox where he is batting an even .100 and has Southside fans wringing their hands over his offensive impotence. Defensively, he has thrown out only two of 20 base stealers for a 10-percent success rate.
Meanwhile, Diaz is batting a solid .287 with three homers and 13 RBI. He is one of MLB’s elite hitting catchers. He’s also thrown out six of 23 base stealers for a 26-percent success rate.
Maldonado did have value when he played for the Astros, though. He was a leader in the clubhouse. He led team meetings when times were tough. Pitchers had confidence in him. Fans liked him, at least on a personal level.
Abreu never made that connection during his time in Houston. Despite Brown’s repeated urging to read the back of Abreu’s baseball card, and his kind and confident words announcing Abreu’s departure for West Palm Beach, do you expect to ever see him in an Astros uniform again? Abreu still will be owed $19.5 million next season, so there is that.
When Astros fans woke up Wednesday morning, they had visions of Alex Bregman and Jon Singleton smacking three-run homers, of Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena’s continued hot hitting, of rookie Loperfido driving in two go-ahead runs and reserve catcher Victor Caratini sending a big crowd home happy with a dramatic two-out, walk-off blast over the right field fence.
Hope is a good thing, and it’s back.