NFL gambling guide
Play Action or Pass Week 10: Keys of Life
Jerry Bo
Nov 11, 2017, 6:05 am
Jonathan Joseph and the Texans can't stop the Rams. Bob Levey/Getty Images
NFL Key Numbers:
Before heading into wagering this weekend, let's talk about the importance of key numbers when betting in the NFL.
The No. 3, is the most common number in football betting. Nearly nine percent of favorites win the game by three points. The No. 7, is the second most common. Games end on the lucky number 7 six percent of the time.
Other Key numbers are 4, 6, 10, and 14.
Games ending by 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 or 14-points: 29% of games
Games ending by 4, 6, 10, 14: 14% of games
Remember these key numbers, and look for opportunities to gain half points on or off these key numbers. If you see the juice going up on a line around the -135 mark, that is when you will see the change in the spread.
Teams receiving the most bets Week 10:
Patriots- 90%
Rams- 87%
Cowboys- 86%
Buccaneers- 74%
Giants- 71%
Plays
Browns +11
In the world of betting, the non-marquee/primetime games are where you can find value. The Browns are on the opposite side of attractive competitions. Football is a game of situations; The Lions are coming off two back to back primetime games vs. The Packers and Steelers; will they get up for this game? What's on deck for this team? Two divisional games, Road Trip to Chicago, then a home Thanksgiving matchup vs. the Vikings. Also, the Browns are coming off a bye. The Lions have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. The Lions should win this game and will be content with doing so by any margin. Take the Browns to keep it closer than most think.
Rams-11
This game matches up the #1 scoring offense (32 ppg) vs. the 30th ranked scoring defense (26 ppg). The Rams are 4-1 ATS in the last five games and 5-1 straight up. The Rams have quickly become must-watch TV. The team is exciting, and much has to do with the evolution of quarterback Jared Goff. LA has won their last three games all by double digits, and the defense has only given up 12.5 points. I just don't see how the Texans will move the ball vs. this defense, and if they go down early, I can't see Tom Savage bringing them back. Look for the Rams to put a drubbing on the Texans.
Action
Buffalo: +3
Vikings/ Redskins: Under 43
Steelers Team Total over: 27.5
Teasers 7 points:
Patriots -.5/ Panthers-2
Patriots -.5/ Rams-4
Pass
Cowboys+3
Pass on the Cowboys this week with the uncertainty behind the Elliott suspension. Curious to see how the team plays without the running back, and also I believe the Falcons will run the ball successfully vs. the Cowboys controlling the pace of the game.
Trendy
Every year since 2000, a team in the top three of net yards per play has made the Super Bowl. This year the Falcons, Jaguars, and Vikings fit the build. Not condoning in betting Blake Bortles to win a Super Bowl, but with a defense like that behind him and 40-1 odds, a hedge opportunity might be available with a bye week very possible in the playoffs. Jaguars schedule Chargers, Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Texans, 49ers, and Titans.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
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The Houston Astros didn’t just sweep the defending champs this weekend, they changed the tone of their season.
Dominant pitching. Star power. Road swagger. The three-game dismantling of the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine wasn’t about revenge or validation. It was about showing, once and for all, that this version of the Astros, short-handed and all, belongs squarely in the conversation with baseball’s elite.
A statement series
The Astros pitching staff was lights out against one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, holding the Dodgers to just six runs across three games, including two contests where LA managed just a single run. Lance McCullers Jr., much-maligned after getting shelled by the Cubs last week, bounced back in a big way. He worked around four walks, giving up just one run on a solo homer, a much-needed course correction as the Astros evaluate their playoff rotation options.
On the offensive side, the stars delivered in a big way. Jose Altuve torched Dodgers pitching with three home runs, seven RBIs, two walks, and just one strikeout. Christian Walker matched him with six hits of his own, including a pair of long balls and six RBIs.
A shift in expectations?
This wasn’t just a series win. This was a proof of concept.
Houston came into the series already heating up, now they’re officially on fire. Over the last 30 days, the Astros rank third in runs and fifth in RBIs. For the season, they’re top 10 in nearly every key offensive category: eighth in OPS, first in batting average, ninth in slugging. Defensively, the numbers are just as strong. They lead MLB in strikeouts and opponents’ batting average, and rank second in WHIP.
Put it all together, and you’ve got a team with top-five upside in both pitching and offense. The pieces are clicking. The vibes are real. And the Astros suddenly look like a legitimate World Series contender again.
Is help on the way?
Reliever Hector Neris rejoined the team this week, offering a veteran boost to a bullpen that’s been leaned on heavily. Neris brings postseason pedigree and a reputation as a clubhouse leader. The Astros hope a return to familiar surroundings, and the guidance of one of the best pitching development staffs in the league, can get him back on track.
Tayler Scott returns on a minor league deal, and while the move may not turn heads, it adds another layer of depth to a bullpen that’s already one of the league’s best.
Background noise in LA
No Astros-Dodgers series goes by without a little extra noise and this one was no different. During the broadcast, former Cy Young winner and Dodgers analyst Orel Hershiser raised eyebrows by implying that Houston’s offensive surge might not have been entirely on the level.
Predictable? Absolutely. Meaningful? Not even close.
If anything, it’s a weird kind of compliment. No one questions legitimacy when you’re losing. But after a lopsided 18-1 beat down people start reaching for answers, or excuses.
Inside the Astros clubhouse, though, that chatter doesn’t register.
They know exactly what this sweep meant. And so does the rest of the league.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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