NFL gambling guide

Play Action or Pass Week 10: Keys of Life

Jonathan Joseph and the Texans can't stop the Rams. Bob Levey/Getty Images

NFL Key Numbers:

Before heading into wagering this weekend, let's talk about the importance of key numbers when betting in the NFL.

The No. 3, is the most common number in football betting. Nearly nine percent of favorites win the game by three points. The No. 7, is the second most common. Games end on the lucky number 7 six percent of the time.

Other Key numbers are 4, 6, 10, and 14.

Games ending by 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 or 14-points: 29% of games

Games ending by 4, 6, 10, 14: 14% of games

Remember these key numbers, and look for opportunities to gain half points on or off these key numbers. If you see the juice going up on a line around the -135 mark, that is when you will see the change in the spread.

Teams receiving the most bets Week 10:

Patriots- 90%

Rams- 87%

Cowboys- 86%

Buccaneers- 74%

Giants- 71%


Plays

Browns +11

In the world of betting, the non-marquee/primetime games are where you can find value. The Browns are on the opposite side of attractive competitions. Football is a game of situations; The Lions are coming off two back to back primetime games vs. The Packers and Steelers; will they get up for this game? What's on deck for this team? Two divisional games, Road Trip to Chicago, then a home Thanksgiving matchup vs. the Vikings. Also, the Browns are coming off a bye. The Lions have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. The Lions should win this game and will be content with doing so by any margin. Take the Browns to keep it closer than most think.

Rams-11

This game matches up the #1 scoring offense (32 ppg) vs. the 30th ranked scoring defense (26 ppg). The Rams are 4-1 ATS in the last five games and 5-1 straight up. The Rams have quickly become must-watch TV. The team is exciting, and much has to do with the evolution of quarterback Jared Goff. LA has won their last three games all by double digits, and the defense has only given up 12.5 points. I just don't see how the Texans will move the ball vs. this defense, and if they go down early, I can't see Tom Savage bringing them back. Look for the Rams to put a drubbing on the Texans.

Action

Buffalo: +3

Vikings/ Redskins: Under 43

Steelers Team Total over: 27.5

Teasers 7 points:

Patriots -.5/ Panthers-2

Patriots -.5/ Rams-4

Pass

Cowboys+3

Pass on the Cowboys this week with the uncertainty behind the Elliott suspension. Curious to see how the team plays without the running back, and also I believe the Falcons will run the ball successfully vs. the Cowboys controlling the pace of the game.

Trendy

Every year since 2000, a team in the top three of net yards per play has made the Super Bowl. This year the Falcons, Jaguars, and Vikings fit the build. Not condoning in betting Blake Bortles to win a Super Bowl, but with a defense like that behind him and 40-1 odds, a hedge opportunity might be available with a bye week very possible in the playoffs. Jaguars schedule Chargers, Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Texans, 49ers, and Titans.

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.









 

Drew Brees and the Saints escaped with an ugly win. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

The Saints have effectively wrapped up the NFC South with their 25-14 win over the Tampa Bay Bucs. Here's how I saw things:

The Good

-Michael Thomas got himself going this week after a subpar performance against the Cowboys last week. He finished with 11 catches for 98 yards. More of note was his record of most catches in first three seasons. He surpassed Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry on his second catch, his 289th of his career. I hope people take notice and realize how great of a player he is.

-Taysom Hill once again proved his worth as just a football player. He blocked a punt the Saints recovered at the Tampa 30 yard line. It helped set up their first touchdown. Hill is listed as the third string quarterback, but plays running back, wide receiver, and special teams. He also drew a double team penalty on a kickoff.

-Drew Brees is known for his pinpoint accuracy throwing the ball. However, his athleticism is underrated. He notched his fourth rushing touchdown on a 4th and goal play in which he leapt over the line and extended the ball across the plane. The Saints took the lead early in the fourth quarter on that play.

The Bad

-Right before the half, Brees threw an interception that set up Tampa's second touchdown. When this team is rolling, they are the ones scoring before the half when they're getting the ball back after the half.

-They totaled just three rushing yards in the first half on nine attempts. The longest run was from fullback Zach Line at four yards. Another component of this team's success is predicated on the run game.

-Alvin Kamara was held in check. He was limited to 87 yards on 17 touches. His 76 yards on three kick returns were a help, but this team needs him to get going running and catching passes in order to operate at full capacity.

The Ugly

-This was the second game in a row that the Saints failed to score a touchdown in the first half. It could be a sign of teams catching up to them, or it could be a sign of a team that's feeling complacent. Either way, they need to get their offense going again to start games. 24 plays and 104 yards of offense that produced only three points in the first half.

-On their opening possession of the second half, Brees was stripped in the pocket and the Bucs recovered. The pressure came from the left. Missing starting left tackle Terron Armstead is becoming more and more of a glaring issue.

-Brees was limited to less than 270 yards passing, while they also totaled less than 130 yards rushing. Being held below their season averages on offense and still winning is the definition of winning ugly.

The Saints are now 11-2 and firmly in second place in the NFC. Now, they sit back and hope the Rams drop another game down the stretch. They own the tiebreaker over the Rams and need to finish with the same record to get homefield throughout the NFC playoffs. Saints fans will be Bears fans tonight, as well as Eagles, Cardinals, and 49er fans the rest of the season. This is what happens when you drop games you should've won.

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