NFL gambling guide

Play Action or Pass Week 10: Keys of Life

Jonathan Joseph and the Texans can't stop the Rams. Bob Levey/Getty Images

NFL Key Numbers:

Before heading into wagering this weekend, let's talk about the importance of key numbers when betting in the NFL.

The No. 3, is the most common number in football betting. Nearly nine percent of favorites win the game by three points. The No. 7, is the second most common. Games end on the lucky number 7 six percent of the time.

Other Key numbers are 4, 6, 10, and 14.

Games ending by 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 or 14-points: 29% of games

Games ending by 4, 6, 10, 14: 14% of games

Remember these key numbers, and look for opportunities to gain half points on or off these key numbers. If you see the juice going up on a line around the -135 mark, that is when you will see the change in the spread.

Teams receiving the most bets Week 10:

Patriots- 90%

Rams- 87%

Cowboys- 86%

Buccaneers- 74%

Giants- 71%


Plays

Browns +11

In the world of betting, the non-marquee/primetime games are where you can find value. The Browns are on the opposite side of attractive competitions. Football is a game of situations; The Lions are coming off two back to back primetime games vs. The Packers and Steelers; will they get up for this game? What's on deck for this team? Two divisional games, Road Trip to Chicago, then a home Thanksgiving matchup vs. the Vikings. Also, the Browns are coming off a bye. The Lions have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. The Lions should win this game and will be content with doing so by any margin. Take the Browns to keep it closer than most think.

Rams-11

This game matches up the #1 scoring offense (32 ppg) vs. the 30th ranked scoring defense (26 ppg). The Rams are 4-1 ATS in the last five games and 5-1 straight up. The Rams have quickly become must-watch TV. The team is exciting, and much has to do with the evolution of quarterback Jared Goff. LA has won their last three games all by double digits, and the defense has only given up 12.5 points. I just don't see how the Texans will move the ball vs. this defense, and if they go down early, I can't see Tom Savage bringing them back. Look for the Rams to put a drubbing on the Texans.

Action

Buffalo: +3

Vikings/ Redskins: Under 43

Steelers Team Total over: 27.5

Teasers 7 points:

Patriots -.5/ Panthers-2

Patriots -.5/ Rams-4

Pass

Cowboys+3

Pass on the Cowboys this week with the uncertainty behind the Elliott suspension. Curious to see how the team plays without the running back, and also I believe the Falcons will run the ball successfully vs. the Cowboys controlling the pace of the game.

Trendy

Every year since 2000, a team in the top three of net yards per play has made the Super Bowl. This year the Falcons, Jaguars, and Vikings fit the build. Not condoning in betting Blake Bortles to win a Super Bowl, but with a defense like that behind him and 40-1 odds, a hedge opportunity might be available with a bye week very possible in the playoffs. Jaguars schedule Chargers, Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Texans, 49ers, and Titans.

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.