GAMBLING GUIDE
Play Action or Pass Week 11: Preparation for elevation
Jerry Bo
Nov 17, 2017, 7:00 am
Tom Brady and the Patriots will play in Mexico City. Photo by Todd Warshaw/Getty Images
This week, International NFL takes us to Mexico City for an AFC showdown between the Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots. The Raiders are coming off a bye and are focused as they desperately need a win, currently with a record of 4-5, while division leader Kansas City is pulling away at 6-3. The Patriots come in at 7-2 and need this game for different reasons. Sitting at 7-2, they share the AFC's best record with the Steelers. So New England will be looking to stay neck and neck with Pittsburgh, leaving the showdown Dec. 12 at Heinze field, to be the deciding factor in case of a tiebreaker. Motivation will be present for both teams, but preparation this week is the key, and we will look to capitalize on it.
Dating back to last year, The Patriots have now won 13 straight road games. They were 8-0 last year away from Foxboro and are off to a perfect start in 2017. After last week's win, New England opted to stay in Colorado. A few weeks back we spoke about preparing for an international game, and different approaches teams take with travel. The Rams chose to stay in Florida before heading overseas while Arizona decided to fly out early. The result, a blowout by the Rams 33-0 in London in week 7. The last time the Patriots stayed on the road for over a week was 2014. With New England opting to stay in Colorado, they benefit in two ways. “ I think those trips are great,” said retired defensive end Rob Ninkovich, who was part of the 2014 team. “It just helps a team come together. With the age differences between older and younger guys on a team, a week away in a hotel creates an environment where everyone is together. In a regular work week at home, older guys with families do their job and then get home to the kids. On away trips like that, everyone hangs out together.” The Patriots trained at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs. Team unity and a chance to bond is critical for a team to trust in each other. But the other factor that stands out here is the chance for the Patriots to practice at high altitude all week, Mexico City has an altitude of 7,503 feet. The Air Force Academy, where they will train, is located 7,258 feet above sea level. Look for the Patriots to play at a faster pace than usual, to keep the Oakland defense gassed.
The Raiders are coming off a much-needed bye week, and have the advantage of this being their second consecutive year to play in Mexico City. The only difference is with a losing record; pressure plays a factor. With an extra week off to hear the media, Oakland's General Manager, Reggie McKenzie heard some of the critics. “I'm not going to sit here and evaluate coordinators with you guys,” McKenzie told local media during the Raiders bye week last Friday. “But it's obvious we need to get better offensively and score some points and move the football and help the defense out. And vice versa, the defense has to get the ball back for our offense. We have to continue to work together in every facet of our game, starting versus New England.”
Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio is not exactly thrilled with heading back to Mexico, calling it a “competitive disadvantage, one that we have faced the last couple of years and will face the next few years.”
Those aren't the words of a calm front office. "EVERY" facet, shows a sign of being desperate for results. Let's see how the two entirely contrasting atmospheres in the locker rooms, relate to the on-field performances.
Most bet teams:
Patriots 85%
Eagles 82%
Lions 80%
Chiefs 76%
Jaguars 70%
Play action or Pass is now 13-13-2 on the year.
Last week we talked about the key numbers when betting the NFL, this week we have opportunities to play teasers crossing the very important 3 and 7 numbers, giving you a better chance to cash your tickets.
Plays
Patriots-7
As I mentioned earlier, I think the Patriots method of preparing for this game by staying at high altitudes will be a huge factor. This is a classic match-up of strength vs. weakness as the Raiders defense allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 71% of passes and an average of a 118.3 Passer rating. During the 13 road game winning streak, the Patriots are 11-2 ATS. Raiders 1-5-1 ATS last seven this year and Jack Del Rio is also 1-5-1 ATS last seven away from home. Look for the Patriots to tally at least 30 points in this matchup.
Philadelphia Team Total over 26.5
The Eagles have surpassed the 26.5 point mark in 7 out of 9 games this year, and five out of the last six have been 26 or over. They are second in the league in points per game with 31.4 this year. The visitors in this series are 8-3 both straight up and against the spread over the last 11 meetings. With the line moving all the way up to 4.5, we look for another angle to shoot. The total has gone over in six of the Eagles' last eight games. Philidelphia will have its way on offense, and the defense will do their part causing havoc on the Cowboys quarterback with the depleted Dallas Offensive line.
Action
Texans/ Cardinals under 43.5
Saints Team Total over 29.5
Patriots Team Total over 30
Tampa Bay/Miami Over 41
Teasers 7 points (Crossing the key numbers 3/7 as much as possible):
Patriots Pk/ Saints -1 (2X)
Patriots Pk/ Saints-1
Patriots Pk/ Chiefs -3.5
Saints-1-/ Chiefs -3.5
Pass
Rams+2.5
Minnesota is quietly 7-2 straight up and 6-3 ATS. No opponent has scored over 19 points at U.S. Bank Stadium this year; overall, the Vikings defense ranks 5th in points allowed (18.3) in 2017. The Rams, own the league's 31st rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 145.5 yards per game on the road. Minnesota averages 118 yards on the ground, so look for them to control the tempo and keep the Rams offense off the field. The reason I like the Rams is the familiarity of Wade Phillips with Case Keenum from the time they spent together in Houston. Look for him to exploit his weaknesses in a low scoring affair. Both sides have a case, and sometimes the best bet is no bet.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
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The 2025 season hasn't gone according to script for the Houston Astros. Injuries, slumps, and a retooled roster have left fans asking whether this version of the Astros is underwhelming—or if, given all the turmoil, they might actually be overachieving.
When Houston dealt Kyle Tucker, a franchise cornerstone, the move raised eyebrows. Tucker was a consistent producer and an anchor in right field. In return, the Astros received infielder Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski, and third baseman now outfielder Cam Smith—players who didn’t bring the same star power but offered versatility and upside.
Paredes has delivered as advertised. He’s brought steady production at the plate and the ability to play a solid third base. While he may not be with the team beyond 2027 if the front office sticks to its recent pattern of letting players walk in free agency, his presence right now is stabilizing an otherwise inconsistent lineup.
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In the meantime, however, he’s shown flashes of being a quality everyday player. But it’s not uncommon for young hitters to take a step back after an initial surge. The Astros need him to keep proving it, but the potential is unmistakable.
Underwhelming or overachieving?
Elsewhere on the roster, the results are mixed. Players like Jake Meyers and Victor Caratini, who came into the season with modest expectations, have performed admirably. Meanwhile, stars like José Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Díaz have underperformed, leaving the offensive output uneven. Add in the extended absence of Yordan Álvarez and the loss of three-fifths of the starting rotation, and it's fair to say Houston has had more than its share of adversity.
King of the hill
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What should we make of the Alex Bregman quad injury?
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Moving forward
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There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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