GAMBLING GUIDE
Play Action or Pass Week 11: Preparation for elevation
Jerry Bo
Nov 17, 2017, 7:00 am
This week, International NFL takes us to Mexico City for an AFC showdown between the Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots. The Raiders are coming off a bye and are focused as they desperately need a win, currently with a record of 4-5, while division leader Kansas City is pulling away at 6-3. The Patriots come in at 7-2 and need this game for different reasons. Sitting at 7-2, they share the AFC's best record with the Steelers. So New England will be looking to stay neck and neck with Pittsburgh, leaving the showdown Dec. 12 at Heinze field, to be the deciding factor in case of a tiebreaker. Motivation will be present for both teams, but preparation this week is the key, and we will look to capitalize on it.
Dating back to last year, The Patriots have now won 13 straight road games. They were 8-0 last year away from Foxboro and are off to a perfect start in 2017. After last week's win, New England opted to stay in Colorado. A few weeks back we spoke about preparing for an international game, and different approaches teams take with travel. The Rams chose to stay in Florida before heading overseas while Arizona decided to fly out early. The result, a blowout by the Rams 33-0 in London in week 7. The last time the Patriots stayed on the road for over a week was 2014. With New England opting to stay in Colorado, they benefit in two ways. “ I think those trips are great,” said retired defensive end Rob Ninkovich, who was part of the 2014 team. “It just helps a team come together. With the age differences between older and younger guys on a team, a week away in a hotel creates an environment where everyone is together. In a regular work week at home, older guys with families do their job and then get home to the kids. On away trips like that, everyone hangs out together.” The Patriots trained at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs. Team unity and a chance to bond is critical for a team to trust in each other. But the other factor that stands out here is the chance for the Patriots to practice at high altitude all week, Mexico City has an altitude of 7,503 feet. The Air Force Academy, where they will train, is located 7,258 feet above sea level. Look for the Patriots to play at a faster pace than usual, to keep the Oakland defense gassed.
The Raiders are coming off a much-needed bye week, and have the advantage of this being their second consecutive year to play in Mexico City. The only difference is with a losing record; pressure plays a factor. With an extra week off to hear the media, Oakland's General Manager, Reggie McKenzie heard some of the critics. “I'm not going to sit here and evaluate coordinators with you guys,” McKenzie told local media during the Raiders bye week last Friday. “But it's obvious we need to get better offensively and score some points and move the football and help the defense out. And vice versa, the defense has to get the ball back for our offense. We have to continue to work together in every facet of our game, starting versus New England.”
Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio is not exactly thrilled with heading back to Mexico, calling it a “competitive disadvantage, one that we have faced the last couple of years and will face the next few years.”
Those aren't the words of a calm front office. "EVERY" facet, shows a sign of being desperate for results. Let's see how the two entirely contrasting atmospheres in the locker rooms, relate to the on-field performances.
Patriots 85%
Eagles 82%
Lions 80%
Chiefs 76%
Jaguars 70%
Play action or Pass is now 13-13-2 on the year.
Last week we talked about the key numbers when betting the NFL, this week we have opportunities to play teasers crossing the very important 3 and 7 numbers, giving you a better chance to cash your tickets.
Patriots-7
As I mentioned earlier, I think the Patriots method of preparing for this game by staying at high altitudes will be a huge factor. This is a classic match-up of strength vs. weakness as the Raiders defense allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 71% of passes and an average of a 118.3 Passer rating. During the 13 road game winning streak, the Patriots are 11-2 ATS. Raiders 1-5-1 ATS last seven this year and Jack Del Rio is also 1-5-1 ATS last seven away from home. Look for the Patriots to tally at least 30 points in this matchup.
Philadelphia Team Total over 26.5
The Eagles have surpassed the 26.5 point mark in 7 out of 9 games this year, and five out of the last six have been 26 or over. They are second in the league in points per game with 31.4 this year. The visitors in this series are 8-3 both straight up and against the spread over the last 11 meetings. With the line moving all the way up to 4.5, we look for another angle to shoot. The total has gone over in six of the Eagles' last eight games. Philidelphia will have its way on offense, and the defense will do their part causing havoc on the Cowboys quarterback with the depleted Dallas Offensive line.
Texans/ Cardinals under 43.5
Saints Team Total over 29.5
Patriots Team Total over 30
Tampa Bay/Miami Over 41
Teasers 7 points (Crossing the key numbers 3/7 as much as possible):
Patriots Pk/ Saints -1 (2X)
Patriots Pk/ Saints-1
Patriots Pk/ Chiefs -3.5
Saints-1-/ Chiefs -3.5
Rams+2.5
Minnesota is quietly 7-2 straight up and 6-3 ATS. No opponent has scored over 19 points at U.S. Bank Stadium this year; overall, the Vikings defense ranks 5th in points allowed (18.3) in 2017. The Rams, own the league's 31st rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 145.5 yards per game on the road. Minnesota averages 118 yards on the ground, so look for them to control the tempo and keep the Rams offense off the field. The reason I like the Rams is the familiarity of Wade Phillips with Case Keenum from the time they spent together in Houston. Look for him to exploit his weaknesses in a low scoring affair. Both sides have a case, and sometimes the best bet is no bet.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
C.J. Stroud faced criticism in Houston's last few games as the Texans hit a rough patch after losing just two of their first eight games.
But the second-year quarterback remained confident and his strong performance last Sunday helped the Texans (8-5) to a 23-20 win over the Jaguars to enter their bye with a two-game lead atop the AFC South.
“When he is leading and playing the way he is playing, our entire team feeds off of him,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “I am excited for his second year. I think he is showing a ton of growth, he is in a really great spot for us physically, mentally. I really love where he is and I am excited to see how he comes back after the break.”
Stroud threw for 242 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville to leave him ranked fourth in the NFL with 3,117 yards passing this season. That game came after he threw two interceptions in a 32-27 loss to Tennessee a week before for the team’s third loss in four games.
Those two interceptions brought his season total to nine, which are four more than he threw in 15 games a rookie. But the Texans aren’t worried about that statistic and believe he has grown in his second year.
“He’s made a lot of progress,” general manager Nick Caserio said. “There are some plays, like all of our players, that we probably wish he could have back, but happy he’s our quarterback, happy with what he brings to the table. ... Wouldn’t want anyone else leading this team.”
The Texans are in position to win their division for a second straight season despite dealing with several significant injuries on offense. Running back Joe Mixon missed three games early with an ankle injury and leading receiver Nico Collins was sidelined for five games with a hamstring injury.
They also lost four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs for the season when tore an ACL in Week 8.
Mixon leads the team with 887 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns and has added four touchdown receptions. His work in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati has helped the team deal with those significant injuries to the receiving corps.
Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing in seven games.
Stroud has continually raved about Mixon’s contributions on and off the field.
“He’s a servant, a helper,” Stroud said. “That’s ultimately what I want to be as well. Who can I serve and how can I help? That’s ultimately what the game of football is.”
While Mixon has been the team’s most important new acquisition on offense, Danielle Hunter has been Houston’s new defensive star. The defensive end spent his first eight seasons in Minnesota before joining the Texans this year.
He has helped Houston lead the NFL with 84 tackles for loss after piling up 15 this season, which is tied for third most in the league. He also leads the Texans with 10½ sacks to help them rank second with 42.
Hunter been a great addition to a team that already had defensive end Will Anderson Jr., last year’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year. Anderson ranks second to Hunter on the team with 13 tackles for loss and 9½ sacks.
Ryans said this week’s break is much needed for a team that opened the preseason on Aug. 1 in the Hall of Fame game.
“It’s here and we’re going to take advantage of it,” he said. “We’ve been going at it for a long time.”
The Texans need to recharge this week with a brutal stretch of three games in 10 days when they return from their bye. Houston hosts Miami on Dec. 15 before a trip to Kansas City on Dec. 21 and a visit from the Ravens on Christmas Day.
“It’s Christmas and all that, but we can’t worry about that. All we can do is focus on Miami,” Caserio said. “And then when we get through the Miami game, then we kind of turn the page to the next. ... We’re either going to earn it or we’re not. Not to oversimplify it, but that’s the truth.”
The Texans will play those game without starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair after he received a three-game suspension for his violent hit to the head of Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, which led to a concussion.
Al-Shaair will be eligible to return for Houston’s regular-season finale against Tennessee.