GAMBLING GUIDE
Play Action or Pass Week 11: Preparation for elevation
Jerry Bo
Nov 17, 2017, 7:00 am
This week, International NFL takes us to Mexico City for an AFC showdown between the Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots. The Raiders are coming off a bye and are focused as they desperately need a win, currently with a record of 4-5, while division leader Kansas City is pulling away at 6-3. The Patriots come in at 7-2 and need this game for different reasons. Sitting at 7-2, they share the AFC's best record with the Steelers. So New England will be looking to stay neck and neck with Pittsburgh, leaving the showdown Dec. 12 at Heinze field, to be the deciding factor in case of a tiebreaker. Motivation will be present for both teams, but preparation this week is the key, and we will look to capitalize on it.
Dating back to last year, The Patriots have now won 13 straight road games. They were 8-0 last year away from Foxboro and are off to a perfect start in 2017. After last week's win, New England opted to stay in Colorado. A few weeks back we spoke about preparing for an international game, and different approaches teams take with travel. The Rams chose to stay in Florida before heading overseas while Arizona decided to fly out early. The result, a blowout by the Rams 33-0 in London in week 7. The last time the Patriots stayed on the road for over a week was 2014. With New England opting to stay in Colorado, they benefit in two ways. “ I think those trips are great,” said retired defensive end Rob Ninkovich, who was part of the 2014 team. “It just helps a team come together. With the age differences between older and younger guys on a team, a week away in a hotel creates an environment where everyone is together. In a regular work week at home, older guys with families do their job and then get home to the kids. On away trips like that, everyone hangs out together.” The Patriots trained at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs. Team unity and a chance to bond is critical for a team to trust in each other. But the other factor that stands out here is the chance for the Patriots to practice at high altitude all week, Mexico City has an altitude of 7,503 feet. The Air Force Academy, where they will train, is located 7,258 feet above sea level. Look for the Patriots to play at a faster pace than usual, to keep the Oakland defense gassed.
The Raiders are coming off a much-needed bye week, and have the advantage of this being their second consecutive year to play in Mexico City. The only difference is with a losing record; pressure plays a factor. With an extra week off to hear the media, Oakland's General Manager, Reggie McKenzie heard some of the critics. “I'm not going to sit here and evaluate coordinators with you guys,” McKenzie told local media during the Raiders bye week last Friday. “But it's obvious we need to get better offensively and score some points and move the football and help the defense out. And vice versa, the defense has to get the ball back for our offense. We have to continue to work together in every facet of our game, starting versus New England.”
Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio is not exactly thrilled with heading back to Mexico, calling it a “competitive disadvantage, one that we have faced the last couple of years and will face the next few years.”
Those aren't the words of a calm front office. "EVERY" facet, shows a sign of being desperate for results. Let's see how the two entirely contrasting atmospheres in the locker rooms, relate to the on-field performances.
Patriots 85%
Eagles 82%
Lions 80%
Chiefs 76%
Jaguars 70%
Play action or Pass is now 13-13-2 on the year.
Last week we talked about the key numbers when betting the NFL, this week we have opportunities to play teasers crossing the very important 3 and 7 numbers, giving you a better chance to cash your tickets.
Patriots-7
As I mentioned earlier, I think the Patriots method of preparing for this game by staying at high altitudes will be a huge factor. This is a classic match-up of strength vs. weakness as the Raiders defense allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 71% of passes and an average of a 118.3 Passer rating. During the 13 road game winning streak, the Patriots are 11-2 ATS. Raiders 1-5-1 ATS last seven this year and Jack Del Rio is also 1-5-1 ATS last seven away from home. Look for the Patriots to tally at least 30 points in this matchup.
Philadelphia Team Total over 26.5
The Eagles have surpassed the 26.5 point mark in 7 out of 9 games this year, and five out of the last six have been 26 or over. They are second in the league in points per game with 31.4 this year. The visitors in this series are 8-3 both straight up and against the spread over the last 11 meetings. With the line moving all the way up to 4.5, we look for another angle to shoot. The total has gone over in six of the Eagles' last eight games. Philidelphia will have its way on offense, and the defense will do their part causing havoc on the Cowboys quarterback with the depleted Dallas Offensive line.
Texans/ Cardinals under 43.5
Saints Team Total over 29.5
Patriots Team Total over 30
Tampa Bay/Miami Over 41
Teasers 7 points (Crossing the key numbers 3/7 as much as possible):
Patriots Pk/ Saints -1 (2X)
Patriots Pk/ Saints-1
Patriots Pk/ Chiefs -3.5
Saints-1-/ Chiefs -3.5
Rams+2.5
Minnesota is quietly 7-2 straight up and 6-3 ATS. No opponent has scored over 19 points at U.S. Bank Stadium this year; overall, the Vikings defense ranks 5th in points allowed (18.3) in 2017. The Rams, own the league's 31st rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 145.5 yards per game on the road. Minnesota averages 118 yards on the ground, so look for them to control the tempo and keep the Rams offense off the field. The reason I like the Rams is the familiarity of Wade Phillips with Case Keenum from the time they spent together in Houston. Look for him to exploit his weaknesses in a low scoring affair. Both sides have a case, and sometimes the best bet is no bet.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
Jamal Murray had 39 points, Michael Porter Jr. added 17 points and nine rebounds and the Denver Nuggets beat Houston 116-111 on Sunday night to snap the Rockets' nine-game win streak.
Murray, who scored 17 in the first half, had 17 in the third quarter as Denver outscored the Rockets 39-22 in the quarter to take a 96-79 lead.
Russell Westbrook had 14 points off the bench, Aaron Gordon scored 13 points with eight assists and DeAndre Jordan had 11 points and 15 rebounds for the Nuggets, which shot 51% and were 10 of 21 on 3-pointers.
Jalen Green scored 30 points, and Dillon Brooks added 21 points for Houston. Alperen Sengun had 17 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists, and Steven Adams finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds for the Rockets, which shot 44% and were 11 of 34 from behind the arc.
Trailing 109-100 with 1 ½ minutes left, Houston used a 7-1 run to cut the lead to three on a Sengun layup with 21 seconds left, but Christian Braun made two free throws with 19 seconds remaining to push the lead back to five.
Nuggets: Nikola Jokic missed his fourth straight game with left ankle impingement, and Denver improved to 2-2 with him out of the lineup.
Rockets: Houston remains in second place in the Western Conference with 10 games left, but the Nuggets closed to within a game of Houston.
Sengun made one of two free throws with 14 seconds remaining, and Murray made two free throws two seconds later to push the lead to 114-108.
Houston finished 22 of 34 from the free throw line, while Denver made 18 of 26.
Denver hosts the Chicago Bulls on Monday night, while Houston hosts the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night.