NFL GAMBLING

Play action or pass week 13: Who Dat remind you of?

The Saints are having a terrific season. David Grunfeld/Nola.Com

When you think about the Saints, you think about a high powered aerial attack that plays at an extremely accelerated pace. In the past three years, the Saints have been in the top five teams in the league in plays per game and their 7-9 record was the result. Some teams can play fast, but this recipe hasn't tasted well to the Saints in the last few seasons. Just last year they were at the very top with an average of 69.1 plays per game. If you analyze the team that won the super bowl in the 2009-2010 season, they were in the middle of the pack ending 12th overall averaging 63.7 snaps a game. This year, they are 15th averaging 63.8, which leads many to believe, the success of the team and the current run has to be credited to the balanced attack. Drew Brees's pass yards are down from the past few seasons, but the team's rush yards are up to 142 yards per game. This team is very similar to that of the one who raised the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Miami.



The year New Orleans won the Super Bowl, they scored 510 total points (31.8 ppg); this year they are averaging 29.3 points a game ranking them 4th in the league.

2009-2010 Saints -403.8 yards a game. 131 rush 272 pass

2017-2018  Saints- 409.3 yards a game. 142 rush 267 pass

This team also replicates the team that won Super Bowl XLIV and a few winning years after on the defensive side of the ball. Through 11 games this season, the New Orleans defense has allowed 222 points.  That's 20.2 points a game they are surrendering putting them on pace to end at 323.2 for the year. That mark would better that of the Super Bowl-winning squad that allowed 341 points in the regular season (21.3 per game).

The Saints are marching at the moment and look for them to continue the stable attack, keeping defenses off balance and Drew Brees off his back.

That year the Saints beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship game 31-28 in overtime. Could we see the same matchup this year?


Most Bet Teams

Patriots 87%

Packers 85%

Raiders 73%

Steelers 72%

Saints -4 (buy the hook if 4.5)

The Saints had their winning streak finally snapped last week by the Rams 26-20. The difference in this game was the absences of both Ken Crawley and Marshon Lattimore. Both players were limited this week in practice and are questionable with Crawley looking more likely to play. The Panthers needed 14 non-offensive points in the second half vs. the Jets to cover the spread last week. If you didn't watch the game and just saw the score, you would think Carolina handeled business. Things went the opposite way, and the Jets held the lead in the second half after Robbie Anderson's second touchdown of the game. Then came the two fortunate scores with Cam Newton sitting on the sideline for both. Saints are 8-1 straight up the last nine games this year and are 6-3 ATS in those games. The Saints have covered the last 5 in this series and teams favored are 18-6 straight up. When these teams met in Week 3, New Orleans pounded Carolina 34-13. Although I don't think it will be the same margin, look for the Saints to score consistently, and I don't see the Panthers keeping up. One thing to note, the last two meetings in the Superdome have ended in shootouts, 41-38. Play the over.

Seahawks +6

Who have the Eagles beaten? Philadelphia is on a nine-game winning streak and covered their last eight. During this win streak, they have had some soft spots playing the Giants (2-9), at Chargers (5-6), Cardinals (5-6), at Panthers (8-3), Redskins (5-6), 49ers (1-10), Broncos (3-8), at Cowboys (5-6), and Bears (3-8). Their average margin of victory this year has been 32-17. The lines have been inflated the last few weeks, and the Eagles continue to crush the number. So bettors and joe public continue to ride the hot hand. In May, when this line opened, the Seahawks were favored by 7. Now there is a -13 point swing with no quarterbacks being hurt? Is this number being driven by the public after opening at 4? Since Russell Wilson took over his rookie year, the Seahawks have been favored in 41 of 45 home games. The 12th man is 36-9 in those 45 games and have never lost by more than 7.  Since Pete Carroll took over as coach in 2010, the Seahawks have been an underdog of three or more points a total of thirteen times, and in those games, they've gone 9-4 straight-up and 11-2 ATS. This number is inflated and being driven by public perception and money. I believe it should be more around the 3-3.5 mark.

Action:

Panthers/Saints over 48

Falcons-3

Packers PK

Browns/Chargers over 43

Teasers

7 Point

Chargers-7/Patriots-2

Chargers-7/Oakland-1.5

10 point

Chargers-4/Saints over38/Seattle+16

Chargers-4/Jaguars PK/Patriots+1

Pass:

Chargers-14

Really wanted to keep fading the Browns but 14 seems like so much. There will be motivation from the Chargers and no letdown as the last win for the Browns came vs. the Chargers.

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

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These next six games will be very telling. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images.

Houston has six games left in the 2022 regular season, two three-game series in which they need just one more win, or a Yankees loss, to secure the top seed for the AL side of the postseason bracket. They've accomplished what they set out to do over the 162-game drudge that is the regular season, so you're likely to see them use the opportunity to get some players off their feet in the remaining games.

Even so, having one of the best teams means that while putting out a lineup with some starters missing, they can still beat most teams on any given day. So then, what could that mean for the teams still vying for postseason spots or positioning in the remaining games?

Affecting the NL playoffs

It's a relatively sure bet that if they haven't locked up that top seed by the time they enter the final three games, they will before that last series is over. That means that when the Phillies come to Minute Maid Park to close out the season next week, Philadelphia will have much higher stakes in those games than Houston.

Under the expanded playoff format starting this season, the two best teams in each league receive a bye, while the remaining four teams square off in a Wild Card series, with all those games taking place at the better seed's stadium. That means teams will be very motivated to secure their best Wild Card positioning.

As of now, the Phillies hold just a half-game lead over the Brewers for the third and final Wild Card spot for the National League. Things could change this weekend, but whether they still lead or have fallen back and have ground to makeup, the games will matter to them against the Astros.

They also sit 2.5 games behind the Padres, meaning that Philadelphia could potentially be looking at a chance to jump into the second Wild Card spot. However, it's questionable if that's an envious position or not. With the juggernaut battle between the Mets and Braves coming down to the wire, with one team winning the NL East and a first-round bye and the other starting with home-field advantage in a Wild Card series, whoever gets the second Wild Card spot is going to be heading to face a really tough, and potentially angry, team on the road.

It will make things interesting for the Phillies when they face the Astros. They could be playing for their playoff lives or jockeying for position. Either way, the games will be meaningful.

Affecting the AL playoffs

There's a similar scenario at play for the American League side of things with the Astros' three-game series against the Rays this weekend. Just like the Phillies, the Rays enter the weekend holding on to the third and final spot in the AL Wild Card race.

Tampa Bay is only 0.5 games back of the Mariners for the second spot and two games back of the Blue Jays for the first Wild Card spot. Farther behind, the Orioles still have a chance for something crazy to happen, sitting five games behind.

So based on the result of their series with the Astros and how the other teams fare this weekend and in the final stretch of games, the Rays have a range of outcomes that could cause havoc in the AL bracket. They could end up taking the top Wild Card spot and hosting a series, traveling to face the Blue Jays, Mariners, or Guardians, or, less likely, missing the playoffs altogether.

This variance in positioning could have ramifications for the Astros directly in the ALDS round as well. The Astros are likely to be favored regardless of the three potential teams they face; however, some matchups would make things easier.

Houston went 2-4 against the Blue Jays this year and are currently up 3-0 on the Rays with the three games remaining in the season series. And while the Astros took the season series 12-7 against division-rival Seattle, that could give the Mariners all the more reason to be ultra-motivated for the ALDS if they faced the Astros.

So, while the Astros may not have any direct milestones to play for other than locking up their top seed, these remaining six games will have plenty of storylines and drama to follow for them and their opponent.

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