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Play action or pass week 13: Who Dat remind you of?

Play action or pass week 13: Who Dat remind you of?
The Saints are having a terrific season. David Grunfeld/Nola.Com

When you think about the Saints, you think about a high powered aerial attack that plays at an extremely accelerated pace. In the past three years, the Saints have been in the top five teams in the league in plays per game and their 7-9 record was the result. Some teams can play fast, but this recipe hasn't tasted well to the Saints in the last few seasons. Just last year they were at the very top with an average of 69.1 plays per game. If you analyze the team that won the super bowl in the 2009-2010 season, they were in the middle of the pack ending 12th overall averaging 63.7 snaps a game. This year, they are 15th averaging 63.8, which leads many to believe, the success of the team and the current run has to be credited to the balanced attack. Drew Brees's pass yards are down from the past few seasons, but the team's rush yards are up to 142 yards per game. This team is very similar to that of the one who raised the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Miami.



The year New Orleans won the Super Bowl, they scored 510 total points (31.8 ppg); this year they are averaging 29.3 points a game ranking them 4th in the league.

2009-2010 Saints -403.8 yards a game. 131 rush 272 pass

2017-2018  Saints- 409.3 yards a game. 142 rush 267 pass

This team also replicates the team that won Super Bowl XLIV and a few winning years after on the defensive side of the ball. Through 11 games this season, the New Orleans defense has allowed 222 points.  That's 20.2 points a game they are surrendering putting them on pace to end at 323.2 for the year. That mark would better that of the Super Bowl-winning squad that allowed 341 points in the regular season (21.3 per game).

The Saints are marching at the moment and look for them to continue the stable attack, keeping defenses off balance and Drew Brees off his back.

That year the Saints beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship game 31-28 in overtime. Could we see the same matchup this year?


Most Bet Teams

Patriots 87%

Packers 85%

Raiders 73%

Steelers 72%

Saints -4 (buy the hook if 4.5)

The Saints had their winning streak finally snapped last week by the Rams 26-20. The difference in this game was the absences of both Ken Crawley and Marshon Lattimore. Both players were limited this week in practice and are questionable with Crawley looking more likely to play. The Panthers needed 14 non-offensive points in the second half vs. the Jets to cover the spread last week. If you didn't watch the game and just saw the score, you would think Carolina handeled business. Things went the opposite way, and the Jets held the lead in the second half after Robbie Anderson's second touchdown of the game. Then came the two fortunate scores with Cam Newton sitting on the sideline for both. Saints are 8-1 straight up the last nine games this year and are 6-3 ATS in those games. The Saints have covered the last 5 in this series and teams favored are 18-6 straight up. When these teams met in Week 3, New Orleans pounded Carolina 34-13. Although I don't think it will be the same margin, look for the Saints to score consistently, and I don't see the Panthers keeping up. One thing to note, the last two meetings in the Superdome have ended in shootouts, 41-38. Play the over.

Seahawks +6

Who have the Eagles beaten? Philadelphia is on a nine-game winning streak and covered their last eight. During this win streak, they have had some soft spots playing the Giants (2-9), at Chargers (5-6), Cardinals (5-6), at Panthers (8-3), Redskins (5-6), 49ers (1-10), Broncos (3-8), at Cowboys (5-6), and Bears (3-8). Their average margin of victory this year has been 32-17. The lines have been inflated the last few weeks, and the Eagles continue to crush the number. So bettors and joe public continue to ride the hot hand. In May, when this line opened, the Seahawks were favored by 7. Now there is a -13 point swing with no quarterbacks being hurt? Is this number being driven by the public after opening at 4? Since Russell Wilson took over his rookie year, the Seahawks have been favored in 41 of 45 home games. The 12th man is 36-9 in those 45 games and have never lost by more than 7.  Since Pete Carroll took over as coach in 2010, the Seahawks have been an underdog of three or more points a total of thirteen times, and in those games, they've gone 9-4 straight-up and 11-2 ATS. This number is inflated and being driven by public perception and money. I believe it should be more around the 3-3.5 mark.

Action:

Panthers/Saints over 48

Falcons-3

Packers PK

Browns/Chargers over 43

Teasers

7 Point

Chargers-7/Patriots-2

Chargers-7/Oakland-1.5

10 point

Chargers-4/Saints over38/Seattle+16

Chargers-4/Jaguars PK/Patriots+1

Pass:

Chargers-14

Really wanted to keep fading the Browns but 14 seems like so much. There will be motivation from the Chargers and no letdown as the last win for the Browns came vs. the Chargers.

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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