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Play action or pass week 13: Who Dat remind you of?

Play action or pass week 13: Who Dat remind you of?
The Saints are having a terrific season. David Grunfeld/Nola.Com

When you think about the Saints, you think about a high powered aerial attack that plays at an extremely accelerated pace. In the past three years, the Saints have been in the top five teams in the league in plays per game and their 7-9 record was the result. Some teams can play fast, but this recipe hasn't tasted well to the Saints in the last few seasons. Just last year they were at the very top with an average of 69.1 plays per game. If you analyze the team that won the super bowl in the 2009-2010 season, they were in the middle of the pack ending 12th overall averaging 63.7 snaps a game. This year, they are 15th averaging 63.8, which leads many to believe, the success of the team and the current run has to be credited to the balanced attack. Drew Brees's pass yards are down from the past few seasons, but the team's rush yards are up to 142 yards per game. This team is very similar to that of the one who raised the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Miami.



The year New Orleans won the Super Bowl, they scored 510 total points (31.8 ppg); this year they are averaging 29.3 points a game ranking them 4th in the league.

2009-2010 Saints -403.8 yards a game. 131 rush 272 pass

2017-2018  Saints- 409.3 yards a game. 142 rush 267 pass

This team also replicates the team that won Super Bowl XLIV and a few winning years after on the defensive side of the ball. Through 11 games this season, the New Orleans defense has allowed 222 points.  That's 20.2 points a game they are surrendering putting them on pace to end at 323.2 for the year. That mark would better that of the Super Bowl-winning squad that allowed 341 points in the regular season (21.3 per game).

The Saints are marching at the moment and look for them to continue the stable attack, keeping defenses off balance and Drew Brees off his back.

That year the Saints beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship game 31-28 in overtime. Could we see the same matchup this year?


Most Bet Teams

Patriots 87%

Packers 85%

Raiders 73%

Steelers 72%

Saints -4 (buy the hook if 4.5)

The Saints had their winning streak finally snapped last week by the Rams 26-20. The difference in this game was the absences of both Ken Crawley and Marshon Lattimore. Both players were limited this week in practice and are questionable with Crawley looking more likely to play. The Panthers needed 14 non-offensive points in the second half vs. the Jets to cover the spread last week. If you didn't watch the game and just saw the score, you would think Carolina handeled business. Things went the opposite way, and the Jets held the lead in the second half after Robbie Anderson's second touchdown of the game. Then came the two fortunate scores with Cam Newton sitting on the sideline for both. Saints are 8-1 straight up the last nine games this year and are 6-3 ATS in those games. The Saints have covered the last 5 in this series and teams favored are 18-6 straight up. When these teams met in Week 3, New Orleans pounded Carolina 34-13. Although I don't think it will be the same margin, look for the Saints to score consistently, and I don't see the Panthers keeping up. One thing to note, the last two meetings in the Superdome have ended in shootouts, 41-38. Play the over.

Seahawks +6

Who have the Eagles beaten? Philadelphia is on a nine-game winning streak and covered their last eight. During this win streak, they have had some soft spots playing the Giants (2-9), at Chargers (5-6), Cardinals (5-6), at Panthers (8-3), Redskins (5-6), 49ers (1-10), Broncos (3-8), at Cowboys (5-6), and Bears (3-8). Their average margin of victory this year has been 32-17. The lines have been inflated the last few weeks, and the Eagles continue to crush the number. So bettors and joe public continue to ride the hot hand. In May, when this line opened, the Seahawks were favored by 7. Now there is a -13 point swing with no quarterbacks being hurt? Is this number being driven by the public after opening at 4? Since Russell Wilson took over his rookie year, the Seahawks have been favored in 41 of 45 home games. The 12th man is 36-9 in those 45 games and have never lost by more than 7.  Since Pete Carroll took over as coach in 2010, the Seahawks have been an underdog of three or more points a total of thirteen times, and in those games, they've gone 9-4 straight-up and 11-2 ATS. This number is inflated and being driven by public perception and money. I believe it should be more around the 3-3.5 mark.

Action:

Panthers/Saints over 48

Falcons-3

Packers PK

Browns/Chargers over 43

Teasers

7 Point

Chargers-7/Patriots-2

Chargers-7/Oakland-1.5

10 point

Chargers-4/Saints over38/Seattle+16

Chargers-4/Jaguars PK/Patriots+1

Pass:

Chargers-14

Really wanted to keep fading the Browns but 14 seems like so much. There will be motivation from the Chargers and no letdown as the last win for the Browns came vs. the Chargers.

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

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Is leadership the main problem for Houston? Composite Getty Image.

With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.

While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.

Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.

And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.

The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.

It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.

Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.

The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.

They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.

Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.

Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?

As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.

The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?

Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!

Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.

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