Gambling guide
Play action or Pass Week 14: All dogs go to heaven
Jerry Bo
Dec 9, 2017, 10:34 am
Tom Brady and the Pats are the week's biggest favorites. Photo by Todd Warshaw/Getty Images
Ben McA-who?
Sometimes, people are granted positions in life which they are not qualified for. Let's look at McAdoo's resume in the last ten years; He served as a tight ends coach in Green Bay from 2006-2011. For the next two years, he had the simplest position in football as quarterback coach for Aaron Rodgers, which is basically making sure he has a helmet on. Then his stint in New York started, where he was OC for two years, cruising as a middle tier offense ending 15th and 19th overall in DVOA those two seasons. Oddly, he was promoted to head coach where again, his offense was inept, ranking #22 overall in his first year as head coach. So you ask yourself, how did the Giants go 11-5 last year and make the playoffs?
Enter Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
In 2016 the Giants defense was fierce under DC Spagnuolo. According to football outsiders, they were No. 2 in weighted DVOA. So why has this team fallen off so bad this year going from fourth vs. the pass down to 23rd, and second vs. the run to No. 24? Motivation and you have to assume that McAdoo lost the locker room weeks back. The Giants have made it clear that Spagnuolo, will be in consideration for the coaching vacancy. So with four games left in the season, three of which are division foes, could the team be extra motivated to put on good performances if this is the coach they want? When asked how he felt about his audition, Interm Coach Spagnuolo said, “ I'm not focused at all on that, and I would say this to everybody, and I mean this sincerely, I leave that in God's hands, I'll be where he wants me to be, and right now he wants me to be here for this game, and that's how I'll function. And that's as honest as I can get.”
Eli Manning, on the other hand, has to be highly motivated, he's being handed back the keys after being benched by the former head coach. “I'm happy that [Spagnuolo] went with that decision and he has faith in me, we can go win this football game with me as the quarterback,” Manning said.
Not to give merit to Spagnuolo as a great head coach, he holds a 10-38 record in his three years with the Rams. The hope, Spagnuolo said, is “to unite, restore and find a way to win football games. When I mean, restore, you know, restore Giant pride. It's hard to be real prideful when you don't win a lot of football games.”�
All dogs go to heaven and this week we like the underdogs
Week 14 brings us a tricky card. Only one game this weekend carries a spread greater than 6 points (Patriots-11). Eight games hold a line of 4 points and under with two of the contest have no spread at all. Week 14 serves us a menu of competitive games, so let's eat a W, Who wants to eat a W (in my Jameis Winston voice)?
Most bet team
Chargers 91%
Patriots 87%
Titans 86%
Raiders 86%
49ers 82%
Play, action or pass went 8-2 last week, and we are 30-23-4 in 2017.
Plays
Eagles+3 (Buy to 3 if at 2-2.5)
Sunday night, in a primetime matchup, the world got to see Carson Wentz be human and come back down to earth. The 24-10 final score doesn't tell much of what happened Sunday night. The Eagles, moved the ball all night, just failed to convert those yards into scores, with one of the drives ending in a turnover at the one-yard line. This game is said to be the "Game of the Week," but I see the Eagles clearly being the better team, giving no credit to the role as an underdog. Yes, the game is being played in the Colesium, where the Rams have been excellent vs. the number 4-2 ATS, but the Eagles have been no slouch as visitors either, also holding a 4-2 record. Where this game will be won is in the trenches, and that's where the Eagles hold an advantage. If the Rams have one weakness, it's stopping the run. They rank 26th overall and give up an average of 4.7 yards per rush. That certainly won't bode well going up against a three-headed backfield that ranks 3rd in the league in rushing while averaging 143.3 yards a game. Philadelphia will establish the run early and often, opening the door for the play action deep ball. Give me the Eagles with the better quarterback, coming off an underwhelming performance on the national stage.
Giants +4.5
We spoke about the added motivation in the New York Locker room, and that will be the difference this week. Since 2015, Dallas is 14-20 ATS in conference games. Before the firing of Ben McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese, Dallas was listed as a 6.5 point road favorite. Since the announcement, the line has been punished by sharps everywhere showing that indeed motivation might have been a factor for the Giants squad. When the opening line moves against the Cowboys, they own a horrible 17-32 ATS record since 2003. The Giants will keep this close with Angry Eli at the helm. Look for this game to go down to the last possession.
Action
Cardinals +4 (buy .5 if 3.5)
Chiefs/Raiders over 48
Jaguars-2.5
Teasers 7 point
Eagles+9.5/ Oak-KC over 41
Teaser 10 point
Patriots-1/Eagles+12.5/Steelers+5
Patriots-1/Eagles+12.5/Oak-KC over 38
Pass
Patriots-11
The Patriots are clearly the better team, and they can name the score in this matchup. That in itself, is why I have to pass. The Patriots are currently on a four-game road trip. The worse part about this is the last two legs of the road trip have them in two primetime spots. Next week, the Patriots travel to Pittsburgh to play in what many say will decide the AFC and the road to the Super Bowl. New England will come out fast and get this game to where they are comfortable, using as least energy as possible, with one eye on the Steelers. They very well could be up by three scores, but with the team thinking about next week, the back door will be wide open for Miami.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.