GAMBLING GUIDE

Play action or Pass week 15: Home sweet home

Play action or Pass week 15: Home sweet home
Tom Brady and the Patriots play in the game of the week. Photo by Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

Home field is an enormous advantage for many reasons. Travel can take a toll, physically and mentally.

Physically, travel can affect you in the amount of rest you are allowed. When on the road, on most occasions teams tend to lose a day of practice. Whether you were on the road and had to travel back home, or if you have to change your practice schedule to accommodate your travel plans for the upcoming game. Regardless, it takes precious time away that is needed for the body to recover from the violent environment these players go through. Just how does it relate to on-field performances.

Since 2000, in the NFL, a team playing at home wins 57% of the time. The figure leaps to 64% in the postseason.  Much has to do with that during the regular season the schedule is divided evenly between home and away games, during the Playoffs, the better-seeded team hosts the contest giving true value to the home field advantage.

In the gambling world, most venues carry a 3-point home field advantage. However, that's been a routine standard, and in some stadiums, I believe there has to be some kind of adjustment. For example, this year the L.A Chargers play at the Stub Hub Center where the attendance has been abysmal. When dissecting the numbers, the Chargers rank dead last in attendance, with the gap being so bad we don't even have a figure to measure against. The Stub Hub Center capacity sits at 27,000. After some investigating, the highest attendance happened in Week 7 vs. division Rival Denver(25.899), which many say was a home game for the Broncos. So with that mindset, can you justify the model, that so many gamblers practice using home as a 3 point advantage.?

The New England Patriots are 117-21-0 at home since 2003. Breathtaking some would say when you win 84.8% of your home games. Let's go further, in playoff games they are 22-9-0 (71%) in Foxboro. The Patriots play in Gillette Stadium, where they have sold out every home game dating back to the 1994 season, while the team was still at Foxboro Stadium.

Are home fields actually worth an equal 3 points?

Sleeping with one eye open

Patriots vs. Steelers 3:25 pm central

In week 14, we saw the classic look-a-head situations.  Neither team was able to cover their respective spread. Both teams had less than stellar performances with the Patriots failing to win all together. But, what's in question is, was it a must situation for New England as it was Pittsburgh? Although, New England failed to win, with a victory this week they even up record wise and take the head to head tiebreaker. Again, was last week really a must win knowing they could win one of the next two contest and still be in the same predicament. Tom Brady attempted 43 passes last week, something he hasn't done since week 10 and only three times all year. Ben Roethlisberger, 66 pass attempt by far his season high. So why did these teams play like this, so out of character? Looking ahead...

Most Bet Teams

Cowboys 89%

Cardinals 85%

Jaguars 70%

Bills 67%

Seahwaks 65%

Play

Chiefs PK

In week 3, these teams faced off in a moment that they were both headed in different directions. Kansas City was able to win the game 24-10 to continue their 5-0 undefeated start, but six losses in seven games allowed the division to catch up bringing us to Saturday's matchup. The Chiefs opened as 1-point home favorites, bread quickly came in on the road team and jumped the wall to Chiefs +2, before fading back a bit to a PK. A big advantage for Kansas City will be on the ground where their opponent is ranked 32nd in yards per carry allowed and 26th in overall rush DVOA. The Chiefs are tied for second in yards per rush and Kareem Hunt's performance last week with a season-high 28 touches, is a good sign coming into this weeks match-up. Since 2010, Kansas City has only been a home dog three times, going 2-1 in those contest. Fade the public perception, take the home team.

Action

Carolina-2.5

Patriots/Steelers over 53.5

49'ers PK

Teasers 7 point

Vikings-3/ Eagles-.5

Teaser 10 point

Vikings PK/ Saints-6/ Jaguars-1 (2X)

Patriots-Steelers over 43.5/Vikings PK/Saints-6 (2X)

Pass

Panthers -2.5

I lean on Carolina to get the job done here. The books are loving the attention Aaron Rodgers is getting, and the public is eating it up. The line is indicating Rodgers is 100%. Even if he feels he is completely healthy, timing has to be perfected, and game speed is always something you have to catch up to. Ill, Pass, but this spread indicates everything is normal, when that is yet to be seen.

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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