GAMBLING GUIDE
Play action or Pass week 15: Home sweet home
Jerry Bo
Dec 16, 2017, 10:12 am
Tom Brady and the Patriots play in the game of the week. Photo by Todd Warshaw/Getty Images
Home field is an enormous advantage for many reasons. Travel can take a toll, physically and mentally.
Physically, travel can affect you in the amount of rest you are allowed. When on the road, on most occasions teams tend to lose a day of practice. Whether you were on the road and had to travel back home, or if you have to change your practice schedule to accommodate your travel plans for the upcoming game. Regardless, it takes precious time away that is needed for the body to recover from the violent environment these players go through. Just how does it relate to on-field performances.
Since 2000, in the NFL, a team playing at home wins 57% of the time. The figure leaps to 64% in the postseason. Much has to do with that during the regular season the schedule is divided evenly between home and away games, during the Playoffs, the better-seeded team hosts the contest giving true value to the home field advantage.
In the gambling world, most venues carry a 3-point home field advantage. However, that's been a routine standard, and in some stadiums, I believe there has to be some kind of adjustment. For example, this year the L.A Chargers play at the Stub Hub Center where the attendance has been abysmal. When dissecting the numbers, the Chargers rank dead last in attendance, with the gap being so bad we don't even have a figure to measure against. The Stub Hub Center capacity sits at 27,000. After some investigating, the highest attendance happened in Week 7 vs. division Rival Denver(25.899), which many say was a home game for the Broncos. So with that mindset, can you justify the model, that so many gamblers practice using home as a 3 point advantage.?
The New England Patriots are 117-21-0 at home since 2003. Breathtaking some would say when you win 84.8% of your home games. Let's go further, in playoff games they are 22-9-0 (71%) in Foxboro. The Patriots play in Gillette Stadium, where they have sold out every home game dating back to the 1994 season, while the team was still at Foxboro Stadium.
Are home fields actually worth an equal 3 points?
Sleeping with one eye open
Patriots vs. Steelers 3:25 pm central
In week 14, we saw the classic look-a-head situations. Neither team was able to cover their respective spread. Both teams had less than stellar performances with the Patriots failing to win all together. But, what's in question is, was it a must situation for New England as it was Pittsburgh? Although, New England failed to win, with a victory this week they even up record wise and take the head to head tiebreaker. Again, was last week really a must win knowing they could win one of the next two contest and still be in the same predicament. Tom Brady attempted 43 passes last week, something he hasn't done since week 10 and only three times all year. Ben Roethlisberger, 66 pass attempt by far his season high. So why did these teams play like this, so out of character? Looking ahead...
Most Bet Teams
Cowboys 89%
Cardinals 85%
Jaguars 70%
Bills 67%
Seahwaks 65%
Play
Chiefs PK
In week 3, these teams faced off in a moment that they were both headed in different directions. Kansas City was able to win the game 24-10 to continue their 5-0 undefeated start, but six losses in seven games allowed the division to catch up bringing us to Saturday's matchup. The Chiefs opened as 1-point home favorites, bread quickly came in on the road team and jumped the wall to Chiefs +2, before fading back a bit to a PK. A big advantage for Kansas City will be on the ground where their opponent is ranked 32nd in yards per carry allowed and 26th in overall rush DVOA. The Chiefs are tied for second in yards per rush and Kareem Hunt's performance last week with a season-high 28 touches, is a good sign coming into this weeks match-up. Since 2010, Kansas City has only been a home dog three times, going 2-1 in those contest. Fade the public perception, take the home team.
Action
Carolina-2.5
Patriots/Steelers over 53.5
49'ers PK
Teasers 7 point
Vikings-3/ Eagles-.5
Teaser 10 point
Vikings PK/ Saints-6/ Jaguars-1 (2X)
Patriots-Steelers over 43.5/Vikings PK/Saints-6 (2X)
Pass
Panthers -2.5
I lean on Carolina to get the job done here. The books are loving the attention Aaron Rodgers is getting, and the public is eating it up. The line is indicating Rodgers is 100%. Even if he feels he is completely healthy, timing has to be perfected, and game speed is always something you have to catch up to. Ill, Pass, but this spread indicates everything is normal, when that is yet to be seen.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.
Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.
Depth finally runs dry
It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.
Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.
But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.
The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.
Cracks in the pitching core
And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.
Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.
But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.
Injury handling under fire
Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.
No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.
Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.
Pressure mounts on Dana Brown
All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.
Brown will need to act — and soon.
At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.
*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!
The Astros are calling up Brice Matthews, their top prospect on @MLBPipeline
via @brianmctaggart pic.twitter.com/K91cGKkcx6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 10, 2025
There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.
A final test before the break
Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.
The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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*ChatGPT assisted.
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