GAMBLING GUIDE

Play action or Pass week 15: Home sweet home

Play action or Pass week 15: Home sweet home
Tom Brady and the Patriots play in the game of the week. Photo by Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

Home field is an enormous advantage for many reasons. Travel can take a toll, physically and mentally.

Physically, travel can affect you in the amount of rest you are allowed. When on the road, on most occasions teams tend to lose a day of practice. Whether you were on the road and had to travel back home, or if you have to change your practice schedule to accommodate your travel plans for the upcoming game. Regardless, it takes precious time away that is needed for the body to recover from the violent environment these players go through. Just how does it relate to on-field performances.

Since 2000, in the NFL, a team playing at home wins 57% of the time. The figure leaps to 64% in the postseason.  Much has to do with that during the regular season the schedule is divided evenly between home and away games, during the Playoffs, the better-seeded team hosts the contest giving true value to the home field advantage.

In the gambling world, most venues carry a 3-point home field advantage. However, that's been a routine standard, and in some stadiums, I believe there has to be some kind of adjustment. For example, this year the L.A Chargers play at the Stub Hub Center where the attendance has been abysmal. When dissecting the numbers, the Chargers rank dead last in attendance, with the gap being so bad we don't even have a figure to measure against. The Stub Hub Center capacity sits at 27,000. After some investigating, the highest attendance happened in Week 7 vs. division Rival Denver(25.899), which many say was a home game for the Broncos. So with that mindset, can you justify the model, that so many gamblers practice using home as a 3 point advantage.?

The New England Patriots are 117-21-0 at home since 2003. Breathtaking some would say when you win 84.8% of your home games. Let's go further, in playoff games they are 22-9-0 (71%) in Foxboro. The Patriots play in Gillette Stadium, where they have sold out every home game dating back to the 1994 season, while the team was still at Foxboro Stadium.

Are home fields actually worth an equal 3 points?

Sleeping with one eye open

Patriots vs. Steelers 3:25 pm central

In week 14, we saw the classic look-a-head situations.  Neither team was able to cover their respective spread. Both teams had less than stellar performances with the Patriots failing to win all together. But, what's in question is, was it a must situation for New England as it was Pittsburgh? Although, New England failed to win, with a victory this week they even up record wise and take the head to head tiebreaker. Again, was last week really a must win knowing they could win one of the next two contest and still be in the same predicament. Tom Brady attempted 43 passes last week, something he hasn't done since week 10 and only three times all year. Ben Roethlisberger, 66 pass attempt by far his season high. So why did these teams play like this, so out of character? Looking ahead...

Most Bet Teams

Cowboys 89%

Cardinals 85%

Jaguars 70%

Bills 67%

Seahwaks 65%

Play

Chiefs PK

In week 3, these teams faced off in a moment that they were both headed in different directions. Kansas City was able to win the game 24-10 to continue their 5-0 undefeated start, but six losses in seven games allowed the division to catch up bringing us to Saturday's matchup. The Chiefs opened as 1-point home favorites, bread quickly came in on the road team and jumped the wall to Chiefs +2, before fading back a bit to a PK. A big advantage for Kansas City will be on the ground where their opponent is ranked 32nd in yards per carry allowed and 26th in overall rush DVOA. The Chiefs are tied for second in yards per rush and Kareem Hunt's performance last week with a season-high 28 touches, is a good sign coming into this weeks match-up. Since 2010, Kansas City has only been a home dog three times, going 2-1 in those contest. Fade the public perception, take the home team.

Action

Carolina-2.5

Patriots/Steelers over 53.5

49'ers PK

Teasers 7 point

Vikings-3/ Eagles-.5

Teaser 10 point

Vikings PK/ Saints-6/ Jaguars-1 (2X)

Patriots-Steelers over 43.5/Vikings PK/Saints-6 (2X)

Pass

Panthers -2.5

I lean on Carolina to get the job done here. The books are loving the attention Aaron Rodgers is getting, and the public is eating it up. The line is indicating Rodgers is 100%. Even if he feels he is completely healthy, timing has to be perfected, and game speed is always something you have to catch up to. Ill, Pass, but this spread indicates everything is normal, when that is yet to be seen.

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

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The Astros have their work cut out for them. Composite Getty Image.

Through 20 games, the Houston Astros have managed just six wins and are in last place in the AL West.

Their pitching staff trails only Colorado with a 5.24 ERA and big-money new closer Josh Hader has given up the same number of earned runs in 10 games as he did in 61 last year.

Despite this, these veteran Astros, who have reached the AL Championship Series seven consecutive times, have no doubt they’ll turn things around.

“If there’s a team that can do it, it’s this team,” shortstop Jeremy Peña said.

First-year manager Joe Espada, who was hired in January to replace the retired Dusty Baker, discussed his team’s early struggles.

“It’s not ideal,” he said. “It’s not what we expected, to come out of the shoot playing this type of baseball. But you know what, this is where we’re at and we’ve got to pick it up and play better. That’s just the bottom line.”

Many of Houston’s problems have stemmed from a poor performance by a rotation that has been decimated by injuries. Ace Justin Verlander and fellow starter José Urquidy haven’t pitched this season because of injuries and lefty Framber Valdez made just two starts before landing on the injured list with a sore elbow.

Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his season debut April 1, has pitched well and is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts this season. Cristian Javier is also off to a good start, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in four starts, but the team has won just two games not started by those two pitchers.

However, Espada wouldn’t blame the rotation for Houston’s current position.

“It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster how we've played overall,” he said. “One day we get good starting pitching, some days we don’t. The middle relief has been better and sometimes it hasn’t been. So, we’ve just got to put it all together and then play more as a team. And once we start doing that, we’ll be in good shape.”

The good news for the Astros is that Verlander will make his season debut Friday night when they open a series at Washington and Valdez should return soon after him.

“Framber and Justin have been a great part of our success in the last few years,” second baseman Jose Altuve said. “So, it’s always good to have those two guys back helping the team. We trust them and I think it’s going to be good.”

Hader signed a five-year, $95 million contract this offseason to give the Astros a shutdown 7-8-9 combination at the back end of their bullpen with Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly. But the five-time All-Star is off to a bumpy start.

He allowed four runs in the ninth inning of a 6-1 loss to the Braves on Monday night and has yielded eight earned runs this season after giving up the same number in 56 1/3 innings for San Diego last year.

He was much better Wednesday when he struck out the side in the ninth before the Astros fell to Atlanta in 10 innings for their third straight loss.

Houston’s offense, led by Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, ranks third in the majors with a .268 batting average and is tied for third with 24 homers this season. But the Astros have struggled with runners in scoring position and often failed to get a big hit in close games.

While many of Houston’s hitters have thrived this season, one notable exception is first baseman José Abreu. The 37-year-old, who is in the second year of a three-year, $58.5 million contract, is hitting 0.78 with just one extra-base hit in 16 games, raising questions about why he remains in the lineup every day.

To make matters worse, his error on a routine ground ball in the eighth inning Wednesday helped the Braves tie the game before they won in extra innings.

Espada brushed off criticism of Abreu and said he knows the 2020 AL MVP can break out of his early slump.

“Because (of) history,” Espada said. “The back of his baseball card. He can do it.”

Though things haven’t gone well for the Astros so far, everyone insists there’s no panic in this team which won its second World Series in 2022.

Altuve added that he doesn’t have to say anything to his teammates during this tough time.

“I think they’ve played enough baseball to know how to control themselves and how to come back to the plan we have, which is winning games,” he said.

The clubhouse was quiet and somber Wednesday after the Astros suffered their third series sweep of the season and second at home. While not panicking about the slow start, this team, which has won at least 90 games in each of the last three seasons, is certainly not happy with its record.

“We need to do everything better,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “I feel like we’re in a lot of games, but we just haven’t found a way to win them. And good teams find a way to win games. So we need to find a way to win games.”

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