GAMBLING GUIDE
Play action or Pass week 16: Motivate me
Jerry Bo
Dec 23, 2017, 2:21 pm
The Texans are playing for Bill O'Brien's job. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images
Motivation is a stat that fails to show up in the box score or in the spread, but unquestionably you see it with the on-field performances in the closing weeks of the regular season.
Week 16 brings us various spots that we look to take advantage of using motivation as an angle we can capitalize on.
We currently sit at:
AFC
1. Patriots 11-3
2. Steelers 11-3
3. Jaguars 10-4
4. Chiefs 8-6
5. Titans 8-6
6. Bills 8-6
Trailing behind them and still in contention.
Ravens 8-6
Chargers 7-7
Raiders 6-8
Dolphins 6-8
NFC
1. Eagles 12-2
2. Vikings 11-3
3. Rams 10-4
4. Saints 10-4
5. Panthers 10-4
6. Falcons 9-5
Trailing behind them and still in contention
Lions 8-6
Seahawks 8-6
Cowboys 8-6
Playoff Seeding Motivation
Eagles-9
Philadelphia has clinched the NFC East and a first-round bye. The Eagles will clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win over the Raiders, or a tie combined with a Vikings loss/tie, or a Vikings loss. How much motivation will Oakland have after the tragedy of last Sunday night? After being on the wrong side of the most bizarre first down measurement "paper gate," Derek Carr fumbled Oakland's playoff chances out of the end zone for a touchback. Although they aren't mathematically eliminated, the Raiders would need to win out and have multiple scenarios to play out in order to punch a ticket into the postseason. Cross-country travel, on a short week vs. a non-conference opponent, where will the fight for the Raiders come from? Offensive tackle Donald Penn held a streak of 174 straight games played, but this Christmas, he will be at home. To lose your left tackle, Derek Carr's blindside, while traveling into a hostile environment, to play against a defense that underachieved the prior week isn't the ideal situation. Yes, these are professionals, but at the same time they are human, and with the dream being basically crushed by Carr's fumble, how can we expect the Raiders to get up for this game. How can Oakland salvage some kind of motivation going into the off-season? A trip to L.A in week 17 vs. the Chargers with the chance to play spoiler could be the remedy. Look for the Raiders to sleepwalk through this game with the season finale serving as some type of redemption game.
Job security motivation
Texans +10
"We have a great relationship; Coach OB is fun to play for. He's very tough on you. He wants you to be successful. I would love to have coach OB back, and I'm ready to have him with me for my whole career." These were the words of new found leader Deshaun Watson, amidst of all the talk of Bill O'Brien's future with the team. When Watson, the future of the team, comments about who he would like to play for and shows that he is in Bill O'Brien's corner, it has to bring a sense of motivation from a coaching standpoint as well as a perception of optimism in the locker-room. When asked about his quarterbacks support, the QB whisperer O'Brien said “I appreciate all the support that anybody — I think that’s just the way I think any of us are. People support you, it’s a nice thing. But we’ve got to focus on Pittsburgh, and that’s what we’re trying to do.” The Steelers are coming off a wild finish in a matchup they had circled all year. By now, we all know about the Jesse James catch being overturned, and the catastrophic mistake Ben Roethlisberger made, so where is the mental state of the Steelers locker room? They are still playing for a first-round bye week, and they lead Jacksonville by a game, but the Jaguars face off a day earlier vs. the 49ers. Will the outcome of that game factor into this final score? Tomlin has been very inconsistent as a double-digit road favorite losing outright on five occasions in his tenure. In road games the Steelers have been favored in this year they are 2-4 ATS. Take Houston to keep it close enough to leave the back door open.
Winning Mentality Motivation
49ers +4
Since handing the keys to Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers have played like an inspired team. San Francisco is 3-0 straight up and 2-0-1 ATS with Garoppolo at quarterback. San Fransisco averages 5.9 yards per play on offense with Garoppolo, surpassing the league average of 5.4. The stat that jumps out is the improvement on defense. When you think of the Jaguars, you automatically think defense. The Jags hold opponents to 4.9 yards per play. During the last three weeks, the 49ers have held opponents to the exact same number. Since changing quarterbacks, the 49ers have improved on both sides of the ball giving merit to our theory of motivation in the locker room. This team is playing like a 3-0 squad, not one that resembles the 4-10 record they hold in 2017.
Action
Seahawks +3
Seahawks/Cowboys over 47
Browns+7
Rams/Titans under 49
Teaser 7- point
Chargers+.5/Vikings-2
10-point teaser
Chiefs PK/ Eagles+1/Patriots -1.5
Eagles+1/Seahawks-Cowboys over 37/Chiefs PK
Play action or Pass went 8-1 in week 15 bringing our yearly record to 41-28-1. 59.4%
Most Bet teams
Browns 74%
Panthers 73%
Chiefs 70%
Giants 70%
Eagles 67%
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz
What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.
Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.
Depth finally runs dry
It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.
Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.
But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.
The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.
Cracks in the pitching core
And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.
Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.
But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.
Injury handling under fire
Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.
No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.
Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.
Pressure mounts on Dana Brown
All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.
Brown will need to act — and soon.
At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.
*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!
The Astros are calling up Brice Matthews, their top prospect on @MLBPipeline
via @brianmctaggart pic.twitter.com/K91cGKkcx6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 10, 2025
There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.
A final test before the break
Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.
The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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*ChatGPT assisted.
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