GAMBLING GUIDE

Play, action or pass week 17: Pressure; pushing down on me

Play, action or pass week 17: Pressure; pushing down on me
Tom Brady and the Pats are big favorites this week. Photo by Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

Pressure, depending on the quality of the group, can influence a team in different ways. Teams already having clinched a spot in the postseason, but playing for seeding have much less pressure than those that are in "win or go home" situations. According to BetLabs, since 2003, teams in must-win games during Week 17, are 56-68-4 (45.2%) ATS.

Where we can find an edge is through public perception and average bettors thinking the "need" factor benefits them. Using the same BetLabs tool, dating back to 2003, teams playing at home, in must-win games hold a record of 31-42-2 (42.5%) ATS in Week 17.

A must-win situation doesn't mean "Must win by the spread." It solely indicates win and advance. There are various reasons why you won't see the better team cover a given spread. One is the pressure of mistakes late in games when playing with a lead. Games that hold higher implications tend to be called slightly more conservative towards the final quarter as teams don't have an obligation to press for more points and instead just maintain a score to advance. Also the look-ahead factor, and when playing with a substantial lead, some teams use clock management with one eye ahead to the next opponent and also to avoid injuries. Especially, when a group knows it will be playing the following week (Wild Card Weekend).

Most Bet Teams:

Chiefs 78%
49ers 73%
Cowboys 72%
Redskins 71%
Colts 71%

Play action or Pass is 45-33-2 on the year, winning at a rate of 57.7%.

Play

Patriots-15
New England has already clinched the AFC East title, 14th in the last 15 years. What can the Patriots gain? The coveted No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. By defeating the Jets on Sunday, or a loss by the Steelers, the Patriots can pave the road in the AFC through Foxborough. Standing in their way is an overachieving Jets team playing with a backup quarterback. In the last three games, the Jets have mustered up a league-low 8.7 points a game. Ironically, the Jets have been good vs. the Patriots as of late, going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine. Much has to do with the extra motivation teams have when playing Tom Brady and the Patriots, a stat which fails to show up in the box score. Don't let the big spread scare you as the Patriots have covered seven straight games as a home favorite of 14 points or more. The Patriots are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 17. The Jets score an average of 15.1 points on the road, New England tallies up 29.9 per home game. Throw in a few turnovers and the large spread is justified. Patriots, in a beatdown.

Oakland +8
We spoke about the pressure of having to win to get in and how it can affect a team. Games played in December tend to have more influence than games earlier in the season. By weeks 12 and 13 the playoff pictures have become somewhat clear, and the path that needs to be taken becomes apparent. When the pressure has been on, the Chargers have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games in December. This a divisional matchup in a so-called home game, we say that loosely because countless locals are predicting the old LA Raider faithful to run the stadium 75-25%. I expect the Raiders to get up for this game behind the extra motivation behind the fans. Rather than going into the offseason on a four-game losing streak, a win playing the spoiler vs. a division foe can serve as some kind of redemption for a team that unquestionably underachieved this season. With Melvin Gordon a little banged up and limited all week, look for LA to coast to the finish line leaving the back door open. The Raiders are 32-25-1 on the road against the Chargers; look for the Raiders to keep this close and make the Chargers earn a playoff berth.

Action

Packers+7
Redskins -3
Panthers+4
49ers Moneyline
 

Teasers 7 point
Panthers+11/ Patriots-8
 

Teasers 10 point
Patriots-5/Vikings-1/Saints-Bucs over 40

Be very selective this week as motivation will play a big factor. Don't fall into the trap "because a team needs to win they will cover." Bad teams with extra pressure is not a warranted combination. A wise man once told me, "If a team needs to win in week 17 to advance, then they probably aren't that good anyway." DONT FALL FOR THE TRAPS.

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz

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Kyle Tucker returns to Houston this weekend. Composite Getty Image.

Two first-place teams, identical records, and a weekend set with serious measuring-stick energy.

The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs open a three-game series Friday night at Daikin Park, in what could quietly be one of the more telling matchups of the summer. Both teams enter at 48-33, each atop their respective divisions — but trending in slightly different directions.

The Astros have been red-hot, going 7-3 over their last 10 while outscoring opponents by 11 runs. They've done it behind one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, with a collective 3.41 ERA that ranks second in the American League. Houston has also been dominant at home, where they’ve compiled a 30-13 record — a stat that looms large heading into this weekend.

On the other side, the Cubs have held their ground in the NL Central but have shown some recent shakiness. They're 5-5 over their last 10 games and have given up 5.66 runs per game over that stretch. Still, the offense remains dangerous, ranking fifth in on-base percentage across the majors. Kyle Tucker leads the way with a .287 average, 16 homers, and 49 RBIs, while Michael Busch has been hot of late, collecting 12 hits in his last 37 at-bats.

Friday’s pitching matchup features Houston’s Brandon Walter (0-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and Chicago’s Cade Horton (3-1, 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), a promising young arm making one of his biggest starts of the season on the road. Horton will have his hands full with Isaac Paredes, who’s slugged 16 homers on the year, and Mauricio Dubón, who’s found a groove with four home runs over his last 10 games.

It’s the first meeting of the season between these two clubs — and if the trends continue, it may not be the last time they cross paths when it really counts.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -112, Cubs -107; over/under is 8 1/2 runs

Here's a preview of Joe Espada's Game 1 lineup.

The first thing that stands out is rookie Cam Smith is hitting cleanup, followed by Jake Meyers. Victor Caratini is the DH and is hitting sixth. Christian Walker is all the way down at seventh, followed by Yainer Diaz, and Taylor Trammell who is playing left field.

How the mighty have fallen.

Pretty wild to see Walker and Diaz hitting this low in the lineup. However, it's justified, based on performance. Walker is hitting a pathetic .214 and Diaz is slightly better sporting a .238 batting average.

Screenshot via: MLB.com



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